FREE 11/01 UFC Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

UFC Vegas 110 presents an intriguing mix of opportunities with 26 fighters averaging $8,100 in salary. The pricing structure creates some interesting roster construction decisions, as we’re looking at four fighters projected for heavy ownership above 30% while nine solid value candidates offer 8x upside potential. The main event between Garcia and Onama headlines a card that may not capture casual attention but provides several compelling DFS angles for those willing to dig deeper.

The key to success here lies in identifying the right balance between the chalk plays and the value spots that can separate your lineups from the field. With relatively tight salary distribution around that $8,100 average, roster flexibility becomes crucial in building optimal combinations. Several matchups including Johnson vs Dumas and Cuamba vs Lee offer potential leverage spots where ownership could be lighter than warranted. Let’s break down our top plays for this slate.

Premium Tier ($9,000-$10,000)

Top Play: Donte Johnson ($9,200)

Johnson enters his UFC debut carrying perfect 6-0 momentum and heavy betting market support that reflects his finishing ability at middleweight. The undefeated prospect has demonstrated consistent power throughout his regional career, and the oddsmakers clearly expect that trend to continue with KO/TKO odds sitting at -225 against significant decision odds of +900. His move down to middleweight after earning his contract as a heavyweight should provide additional speed and power advantages against opponents in this division.

The betting market projects Johnson with 77.5% win probability while pricing him as a -345 favorite, creating a strong foundation for DFS scoring in what appears to be a favorable stylistic matchup. At $9,200, his 40.8% optimal lineup percentage validates the pricing efficiency, while 34.6% projected ownership keeps him accessible for tournament leverage without being completely contrarian. The fight’s -750 odds to not go the distance align perfectly with Johnson’s finishing profile and suggest multiple pathways to premium fantasy scoring in his promotional debut.

Other Premium Options

• Alice Ardelean ($9,300, Own: 24.6%)
• Isaac Dulgarian ($9,100, Own: 29.1%)

Mid-Range Tier ($8,000-$8,999)

Top Play 1: Steve Garcia ($8,300)

Garcia continues to showcase devastating finishing ability with six consecutive victories, including five straight knockouts before his dominant decision over Calvin Kattar in July. His striking precision has been exceptional during this run, evidenced by the 85-26 significant strike advantage he maintained against the veteran Kattar while keeping things controlled and technical. The move up to lightweight provides additional power behind his already proven knockout ability, making him extremely dangerous for opponents who engage in striking exchanges.

The betting market strongly supports Garcia’s finishing potential with KO/TKO odds at just +105 and heavy -750 odds against the fight going the distance. His 56.5% win probability as a -130 favorite reflects solid value at $8,300, especially considering his consistent ability to generate explosive fantasy scoring through early finishes. Facing Onama presents an ideal stylistic matchup against an opponent who tends to engage in the type of striking battles where Garcia has thrived, creating excellent tournament upside with his proven knockout power and current momentum.

Top Play 2: Billy Elekana ($8,900)

Elekana has shown significant improvement in his approach since securing his first UFC victory against Ibo Aslan, demonstrating the type of calculated striking that translates well to fantasy scoring. His ability to land the more impactful shots while controlling distance has created a foundation for consistent point accumulation, and his southpaw stance continues to present timing challenges for opponents. The betting market reflects strong confidence in his chances tonight, with a 72.1% win probability backed by -258 moneyline odds that validate his status as a reliable favorite.

The finish odds heavily favor a KO/TKO outcome at +130, which aligns perfectly with Elekana’s three career knockout victories and his tendency to generate power shots when opportunities present themselves. At $8,900, his moderate projected ownership of 26.6% creates an excellent leverage opportunity in tournaments, especially considering his 27.6% optimal lineup rate suggests he’s slightly underpriced for his win probability. His physical advantages at 6’2" with a 77" reach give him the tools to control range and create the type of decisive moments that produce tournament-winning scores.

Other Mid-Range Options

• Seokhyeon Ko ($8,800, Own: 26.5%)
• Charles Radtke ($8,700, Own: 21.1%)

Value Tier ($7,000-$7,999)

Top Play: ChangHo Lee ($7,700)

Lee continues to showcase devastating finishing ability while maintaining perfect UFC momentum at 2-0 with both victories coming by stoppage. His recent TKO victory over Cortavious Romious demonstrated elite striking power and excellent scrambling ability, as he reversed multiple takedowns before unleashing the fight-ending sequence in round two. The Korean prospect has displayed remarkable composure against varied opposition, adapting his game plan effectively while consistently finding the finish when opportunities present themselves.

Facing Timothy Cuamba creates an excellent stylistic matchup for Lee’s aggressive approach, as Cuamba enters coming off just his first UFC victory after dropping his initial two promotional appearances. Lee’s proven ability to handle wrestling pressure while maintaining striking output gives him multiple paths to victory, and his 39.9% optimal rate at moderate ownership provides strong tournament leverage. The $7,700 price point reflects solid value for a fighter who has earned Performance of the Night honors while showing the finishing upside that drives GPP success.

Other Value Options

• David Onama ($7,900, Own: 31.2%)
• Jeremiah Wells ($7,800, Own: 20.0%)

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