FREE 01/09 CFB Cheat Sheet: Semifinals DFS Overview

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We’ve reached the bittersweet point of the college football season. The sad part is that there are only 3 total college football games left on the calendar. The bright side is that we are left with 4 great teams and 4 historically significant programs that should provide us with 2 great semifinal games and a compelling national championship game. We can only break down what is right in front of us, so we’ve got a slate overview for both CFP semifinal games – use this to help with creating your DFS lineups, bets, and any other player props that you might be interested in for College Football’s Final Four.

Thursday, January 9th

The CFP Semifinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl

Penn State vs Notre Dame

Spread: ND -2, Game total: 45.5

Implied Score: Notre Dame 23.75, Penn State 21.75

Game Breakdown: Notre Dame is the only team on the slate with relevant injury news to pay attention to this week. Star running back Jeremiyah Love left the Georgia game early and has been practicing with a bulky brace on his knee. The most likely outcome here to me is that Love plays but sees a reduced workload. His viability in DFS formats decreases with this expectation, but he is as likely as anyone to break off a long run and instantly provide value off of one play. I think from a player prop perspective, the angle would be to target a “Longest Rush” over for Love. If Love is seeing fewer touches, I don’t think that means that Notre Dame will run the ball less. It would mean more usage from thumper Jadarian Price and pass-catching specialist Aneyas Williams, who both become viable value plays in DFS. But I also think that it means more carries for QB Riley Leonard, whose upside derives almost entirely from scoring fantasy points with his legs.

I think Leonard is a great play in DFS because of this expected uptick in rushing usage. DFS Hero has Leonard ranked as the top value play of the slate at the QB position. If you are looking to stack Leonard with one of his pass catchers, he has condensed his target tree slightly and has cheap options in Jordan Faison, who has seen a recent uptick in volume, the TD-dependent Beaux Collins, and the always reliable Mitchell Evans. For Penn State, they face an uphill battle against this Irish defense. Only 5 players have scored more than 23 DraftKings points against Notre Dame this season. For Drew Allar, his best fantasy outputs have come in two scenarios: a true shootout (unlikely to happen in this game) or when Penn State is playing from behind (quite possible). I think the angle for playing Allar in DFS or taking his overs on prop bets is in the scenario that Penn State plays from behind and sees increased passing volume.

The weakness of this Notre Dame defense is the outside cornerback position, but Penn State does not have a true alpha at the wide receiver position. The closest thing they have is big play threat Harrison Wallace. I like the overs on his props, but wonder if he has the upside to break the slate in DFS. Tyler Warren will attack the middle of the field, and his robust target share makes him targetable in any scenario. At the RB position, Singleton and Allen will likely split carries at close to a 50/50 rate, and each have their own path to upside as Allen is used as the red zone back while Singleton is more explosive and catches more passes. To me, with the likelier game flow that Penn State plays from behind, that bodes better for Singleton.

How the field will play this game: Likely Riley Leonard, and one RB and one WR from either side

How to get different: Play the ND backup RBs or go full-on game stack

Friday January 10th

The CFP Semifinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic

Texas vs Ohio State

Spread: Ohio State -6, Game Total: 53.5

Implied score: Ohio State 29.75, Texas 23.75

Game breakdown: Ironically, the game between the two best defenses in college football has the higher total by 9 points. This is because these offenses are much more likely to generate explosive plays. Most of those explosive plays come from the arm of Will Howard to the hands of Jeremiah Smith. With the weak spot of Texas’ defense being in the secondary, and seemingly no one in college football being able to cover him anyway, I expect Smith to have a massive game and regard him as the top overall play on the DFS slate. DFS Hero agrees, as they have Smith as the highest-projected WR, and Howard as the highest-projected QB. The run game for Ohio State becomes more difficult to target. Partially because of the 50/50 split that they employ at the RB position, and partially because Ohio State has an offensive line full of backups going against an elite Texas defensive line that has only allowed 2 backs to top 13 DraftKings points all season long.

On the Texas side, the run game really struggled against Arizona State. I am willing to chalk this up as an aberration, as Arizona State had a defense built to defend the outside run schemes that Texas has success with. Texas has made it abundantly clear with their playcalling that they want to win by running the football, and they have made it abundantly clear that Tre Wisner is their guy at the position. He rates as the top value play at the RB position according to DFS Hero. I think that a lot of people playing Wisner will lead to very low ownership on Texas QB Quinn Ewers, and he will become the contrarian play of the slate. His path to upside is entirely TD-driven. If he captures all of the Texas TDs, he’ll end the night as one of the best plays on the slate. If Wisner or another back punches it in, Ewers will flop. At the WR position, Matthew Golden is becoming the WR1 with Gunnar Helm maintaining his role as the safety blanket in the short to intermediate range. Both are very safe DFS plays to me. The rest of the WR room – Bond, Moore Jr, Wingo, and Bolden – I see as TD-dependent dart throws.

How the field will play this game: A Howard/Smith stack with AT LEAST 5 total players from this game, with most including Texas RB Wisner

How to get different: Play Texas QB Quinn Ewers, and stack Will Howard with a WR not named Smith such as Egbuka, Tate, or Scott