FREE 03/24 NBA Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s 6-game NBA slate offers some intriguing opportunities, especially with two high-total matchups standing out. The Chicago-Denver game at 9:00 PM ET leads the way with a massive 238.5 total, making it a clear priority for DFS lineups. Earlier in the night, the Minnesota-Indiana matchup at 7:00 PM ET brings a strong 228 total and features two teams that like to push the pace. These games should attract plenty of attention, so how you approach them could make or break your night.

The rest of the slate is filled with slower-paced games and lower totals, which might scare off some players but could present value if you dig deeper. With no late-night hammer games past 9:00 PM ET, lineup construction will likely be front-loaded, leaving less room for late swap strategies. It’ll be interesting to see how the field prioritizes those marquee matchups versus finding leverage in less obvious spots. Let’s dive in and figure out where the edges are!

Game Environment Analysis

MIN @ IND (O/U: 228.0, Spread: -1.5)

• Pace: MIN (23rd) vs IND (9th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: MIN (10th) vs IND (9th)
• Def Eff: MIN (6th) vs IND (15th)

LAL @ ORL (O/U: 214.5, Spread: 4.0)

• Pace: LAL (20th) vs ORL (27th)
• Off Eff: LAL (12th) vs ORL (28th)
• Def Eff: LAL (12th) vs ORL (2nd)

TOR @ WAS (O/U: 227.5, Spread: -2.0)

• Pace: TOR (13th) vs WAS (4th)
• Off Eff: TOR (26th) vs WAS (30th)
• Def Eff: TOR (19th) vs WAS (28th) 🎯

DAL @ BKN (O/U: 218.5, Spread: 2.5)

• Pace: DAL (14th) vs BKN (30th)
• Off Eff: DAL (11th) vs BKN (27th)
• Def Eff: DAL (21st) vs BKN (16th)

PHI @ NOP (O/U: 225.5, Spread: -4.0)

• Pace: PHI (25th) vs NOP (15th)
• Off Eff: PHI (21st) vs NOP (24th)
• Def Eff: PHI (26th) 🎯 vs NOP (30th) 🎯

CHI @ DEN (O/U: 238.5, Spread: -3.0)

• Pace: CHI (3rd) vs DEN (7th)
• Off Eff: CHI (17th) vs DEN (3rd) 🔥
• Def Eff: CHI (20th) vs DEN (22nd)

Legend:

🏃 = Significant pace mismatch

🔥 = Strong offense vs weak defense

🎯 = Poor defensive team

⚠️ = Blowout risk

Bold = Favored team

PG - Jose Alvarado ($4,900)

Jose Alvarado is shaping up as one of the strongest value plays on the slate at $4,900. With a 1.18 FPPM rate and a projection of 34.14 DK points, he offers nearly 7x value in a matchup against Philadelphia. The Pelicans are missing key pieces like Zion Williamson, which should solidify Alvarado’s role and minutes (projected for 29). His ability to contribute across multiple categories—highlighted by his averages of 9.9 points, 5.1 assists, and 1.3 steals over his last 22 games—gives him a safe floor with legitimate upside. The fact that he appears in 36.8% of optimal lineups underscores his potential to outperform his price tag tonight.

However, the elephant in the room is his massive projected ownership at 50.6%. While this chalk is justified given his salary and role, it’s worth considering how to approach him in GPPs depending on your contest size and risk tolerance. If you’re playing smaller fields or single-entry contests, fading Alvarado could be risky given his high Boom% (48.5%) and strong tournament rank (3rd). But in larger-field tournaments, pivoting to lower-owned options could provide leverage if he underperforms—as we’ve seen some inconsistency in recent games with DK outputs ranging from 10.8 to 31 points over his last five outings. Ultimately, Alvarado is a great play but not without risk if you’re looking for differentiation in larger pools.

More PG Plays:

• Jordan Hawkins ($4,000)
• Jamal Murray ($8,100)

SG - Jordan Hawkins ($4,000)

Jordan Hawkins is shaping up to be one of the best value plays on the slate at just $4,000. With a projection of 30.2 DK points and an impressive 7.6x value, he’s hard to ignore in this matchup against the 76ers. Hawkins has been efficient with his minutes, averaging 1.04 FPPM, and he’s projected for nearly 29 minutes tonight. His recent performance against Detroit, where he dropped 33.3 DK points in 31 minutes on the back of six threes, shows his upside when his shot is falling. Philadelphia isn’t a pushover defensively, but their focus will likely be on containing Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum, which could leave Hawkins with enough opportunities to hit value.

At 31.5% ownership, Hawkins will be chalky, but it feels justified given his price and role in this spot. He appears in over 34% of optimal lineups and has a Boom% north of 50%, indicating that he has strong tournament-winning potential even as a popular play. While there’s some risk tied to his shooting dependency—evidenced by his floor games earlier this month—his ceiling at this salary makes him worth the roster spot in both cash games and GPPs. If you’re fading him in tournaments, make sure you have other strong value pivots because Hawkins’ combination of price and opportunity is tough to beat tonight.

More SG Plays:

• Jamal Murray ($8,100)
• Anthony Edwards ($9,500)

SF - Josh Giddey ($9,100)

Josh Giddey ($9,100) is in a solid spot tonight against Denver, and his DFS profile checks a lot of boxes. Projected for 46 DK points with a strong 5.1x value at this salary, Giddey has been on a tear lately, averaging 57 DK points over his last three games. His versatility as both a playmaker and rebounder makes him one of the safer high-end options on the slate, especially given his consistent minutes (34 projected) and elite 1.35 FPPM rate. The Nuggets are an above-average defensive team, but they’ve struggled to contain dynamic guards who can also attack from the wing—an area where Giddey thrives.

The 24% ownership is certainly high, but it’s justified given how often he appears in optimal lineups (26.2%) and his strong tournament rank (2nd). In tournaments, you’ll need to decide if you want to eat the chalk or pivot elsewhere for leverage, but fading him could be risky given his ceiling potential—he just dropped 73 DK points in his last outing. If you’re building around this game environment, Giddey’s ability to stuff the stat sheet across all categories makes him one of the best plays on tonight’s slate despite the heavy ownership.

More SF Plays:

• Franz Wagner ($8,900)
• Cameron Johnson ($7,000)

PF - Kelly Olynyk ($5,300)

Kelly Olynyk ($5,300) is shaping up as a strong mid-range option tonight, offering both solid value and upside in his matchup against Philadelphia. With a projection of 31.6 DK points and a 1.19 FPPM rate, he’s priced efficiently at 5.96x value. Olynyk’s ability to contribute across multiple categories makes him an intriguing play, especially considering his recent performances where he’s consistently hovered around 30 DK points despite limited minutes in some games. The matchup against the Sixers isn’t ideal on paper, but with Joel Embiid likely focused on Jonas Valančiūnas, Olynyk could find opportunities to produce from the perimeter and in secondary playmaking roles.

At 17.1% projected ownership, Olynyk sits just above field average, which feels justified given his role and price point. His appearance in nearly 25% of optimal lineups highlights his potential utility in tournaments, particularly for those looking to balance value plays with ceiling options elsewhere on the slate. While he won’t carry your lineup offensively, his peripheral contributions—like assists and defensive stats—give him a stable floor with room for upside if he sees closer to 30 minutes. In GPPs, Olynyk is worth considering as a moderately owned piece who offers flexibility without sacrificing production.

More PF Plays:

• Paolo Banchero ($9,900)
• Cameron Johnson ($7,000)

C - Nikola Vucevic ($7,600)

Nikola Vucevic checks in at $7,600 tonight, and while his ownership is on the higher side at 17.4%, there’s plenty to like about him in this spot against Denver. The Nuggets are a tough team overall, but they’ve been vulnerable to opposing centers, ranking middle of the pack in defensive efficiency against the position. Vucevic has been incredibly consistent lately, averaging 42 DK points over his last three games while flashing upside with a 57-point performance just days ago. At 1.29 FPPM and projected for 30 minutes, he offers strong value at 5.1x his salary and appears in nearly 17% of optimal lineups on the slate.

The elevated ownership is justified here given Vucevic’s reliability and ceiling potential in what could be a competitive game environment. With Nikola Jokic on the other side, Vucevic will need to stay involved offensively and on the boards to keep Chicago in it, which bodes well for his DFS output. His ability to contribute across multiple categories—scoring, rebounding, assists—gives him a stable floor with upside for tournaments. While he’s not necessarily a contrarian play, fading him might feel risky given his combination of value and consistency tonight.

More C Plays:

• Julius Randle ($7,500)
• Yves Missi ($4,500)

Good luck tonight! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Player Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!