FREE 12/11 NBA Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

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Another 2 gamer tonight in the NBA Cup quarterfinals with 2 great games in my honest opinion. I love to watch all of these teams so hopefully it translates well to scoring. There isn't a big spend up like Luka or Jokic so it will be interesting to see how roster construction works out. With that said... Our December 11th Starting Five is now LIVE!

PG: Jalen Brunson ($8,500)

We want to attack the worst positional DvPs on this slate and we can do that by going to Brunson here. They face the Hawks who have had the 6th worst PG DvP this season. It is a massive pace up spot for the Knicks so there will be close to 5 extra possessions going their way. He is starting to pick it back up after a slew of bad games in a row. He has 43 and 53 DK points in his last two games. This just feels like the spot for Brunson and the numbers back it up. DFS Hero is giving him a 43% optimal rate for tonight, so I am going to take that and run with it by locking in Brunson.

Honorable Mentions:

• Steph Curry ($9,500)
• Trae Young ($9,400)
• Fred VanVleet ($7,300)
• Miles McBride ($4,100)

SG: Mikal Bridges ($6,000)

We will continue on with another Knick in a great spot. Bridges has 30+ DK points in 5 straight games and the Hawks also are 6th worst in terms of SG DvP. They struggle to defend the guard position which is primarily where Bridges plays. The SG position isn’t exactly load with only 3 if not 4 guys that are really rosterable. This is kind of a coin flip between him and Jalen Green, but for me the implied team total being 10 points higher for the Knicks, the better pace and better implied matchup all have me siding with Bridges for this one.

Honorable Mentions:

• Jalen Green ($6,500)
• Amen Thompson ($6,300)
• Bogdan Bogdanovic ($4,900)

SF: Dillon Brooks ($4,400)

There really isn’t much value on this slate, but that certainly could change come tip off with a few big Q tags on Sengun and the Hawks. Brooks is quite boom or bust, but when he hits there is a strong optimal chance and on a 2 game slate his booms are almost a guarantee optimal. Golden State is middle of the pack defensively against SF so nothing to worry about there. This is the type of game the Rockets should want to play Brooks big minutes for his stingy defense and will be able to slow down Steph quite well. I just think you need to go to him so you can round your roster out with better players and not have to live in the mid range. He could bust, but atleast he opens up a lot for the rest of your team.

Honorable Mentions:

• Josh Hart ($7,100)
• OG Anunoby ($6,200)
• DeAndre Hunter ($5,800)
• Tari Eason ($5,200)
• Zaccharie Risacher ($4,300)

PF: Jonathan Kuminga ($5,400)

This is an auto-lock for me. The price tag hasn’t come up to the spot it should be since being named a starter. I think they are giving him big minutes and usage in the attempt to boost his value so they can trade him for a star at the deadline. He played 36 minutes last game and scored 41 DK points which makes it 40+ DK points in 2 of the last 3 games. The Rockets do have a good PF DvP, but the pace for this game is quite high and that feeds into how Kuminga wants to play. The icing on the cake is these teams played 6 days ago (granted Steph and Draymond were OUT for that game) and Kuminga dropped 46 DK points. Just go ahead and trust the 51% optimal rate that DFS Hero is giving him tonight and play him.

Honorable Mentions:

• Jalen Johnson ($8,300)
• Draymond Green ($6,700)
• Andrew Wiggins ($6,600)
• Jabari Smith ($5,300)
• Precious Achiuwa ($3,800)

C: Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,700)

I know we want Brunson, but we want Towns too. The Hawks have the 8th worst C DvP this season, like I said above with Brunson and Bridges this is a massive pace up spot with the Knicks getting extra possessions over their average. KAT is coming off of a 61 DK point game and hasn’t had less than 45 DK points in any of the last 13 games and hasn’t busted for less than 40 DK points in any of the last 20 games. He is a lock for close to 50 DK points and there isn’t anyone to spend up for on this slate. KAT at $9,700 is the most expensive. He isn’t hard to fit in and has the best matchup tonight amongst Cs. I will say the C optimal rates are spread out quite a bit tonight, so if you want to pivot here I won’t try to talk you out of it. However, KAT has the highest ceiling on this slate and for 2 gamers you kind of need to just go for raw points and fill out the rest with what you can. KAT provides those raw points.

Honorable Mentions:

• Alperen Sengun ($9,200)
• Clint Capela ($5,700)
• Onyeka Okongwu ($4,700)
• Kevon Looney ($4,000)
• Steven Adams ($3,400)** If Sengun is OUT