FREE 01/09 PGA Cheat Sheet: Sony Open DFS Plays

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We made it. Happy New Year! The 2025 PGA Tour season has begun. Last week at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, we saw Hideki Matsuyama win with a sizzling score of -35, besting Collin Morikawa by 3 strokes and coasting to his 11th PGA Tour victory. It was an anticlimactic finish and an impressive performance to kick off the season for the Japanese superstar. He used his typically stellar approach play combined with an uncharacteristically hot putter (2nd strokes gained putting) to make 33 birdies and 2 eagles against just 2 bogeys for the week. This week, it’s the tour’s first full-field event, with 144 players teeing it up and a 36-hole cut to the top 65 and ties. Some players will hop islands from Maui to O’ahu for the Sony Open in Honolulu. Others will fly in from home for their first event. Hideki is a heavy favorite based on betting odds and with good reason. The scenery will be beautiful, and the competition fierce.

THE COURSE

Waialae Country Club is one of the shorter courses on tour, measuring out around 7,050 yards and playing to a par of 70. There are only two Par 5 holes, with each 9 concluding with one. Scoring isn’t particularly difficult, even with the limited number of par 5 holes. The tournament typically produces a tight finish, with each of the last 5 being decided either by 1 stroke or going into a sudden-death playoff. The 2024 edition saw the late Greyson Murray win in a playoff over Beong Hun An and Keegan Bradley. The style, of course doesn’t favor the longer hitters as much as most do, so it brings a wider range of players into consideration for the player pool. With only a limited number of players competing last week, we don’t have much of a feel for recent form. Additionally, the course is not similar in style to the Kapalua Plantation course. This has led me to favor the long-term skill sets that match what the course asks of the players. Some of these players have course history to learn from as well. If we get both, even better, just know that likely means the player is highly rostered.

COURSE FACTS & STATS (2023):

• GIR hit at 69% clip. Tour average is 66%
• Larger than average bermuda greens
• Tour average penalty for missed fairways
• 60% of approach shots were struck from 125-200 yards
• Driving distance average was 292 yards. Tour average was 293
• Driving accuracy % was 57%. Tour average is 59%
• Ranked 27th most difficult course played on tour

IMPORTANT SG CATEGORIES

• SG: Approach
• SG: OTT
• Birdie or better %
• Putting (Bermuda greens)
• SG: Short Par 70 courses
• SG: Approach 125-200 yards

PLAYERS TO CONSIDER

I’m going to highlight players who have performed much better than expected at Waialae from a strokes-gained perspective. This best quantifies players who outperform their normal expectations at this particular course. With all 4 rounds being played on the same course, this is particularly important this week. For comparison, next week, players will play 3 courses at the AmEx, the Farmers will play 2 courses, and the Pebble Beach Pro-Am will play 3. If there’s not much or any course history for a player, then the course fit will be noted. Projected ownership will be noted for reference, as you don’t want to roster more than a few highly owned players, given the variability of performance on the PGA Tour. Value rating based on player projection versus salary. Salaries listed are based on DraftKings contests. Strokes gained data provided by Datagolf.com

Let’s get to it.

HORSES FOR THE COURSE:

Chris Kirk $7,800:

+.87 SG over expected last 5 years. T-2 in 2021, 3rd in 2023. T-18 in 2024 despite losing .69 strokes per round to the field. T-44 last week, but was admittedly rusty after taking a lot of time off. Course suits his precision game well, and there are fewer courses that do with each passing year. Should be highly motivated to jumpstart his 2025 campaign with another quality finish at one of his favorite venues.

Corey Connors $10,200:

+.87 SG over expected last 5 years. T-12 in 2021, T-11 in 2022, T-12 in 2023. Finished T-5 last week and offers an ownership discount and a nice pivot from Hideki in the higher salary range. Feels primed for a top-10 finish in a weak field. Elite game Tee-to-Green.

Cameron Davis $7,900:

+.61 SG over expected last 5 years. Finishes over that time: T-9, 31, T-27, T-32 T-30. Solid T-13 finish last week, pairing a great approach week with very good putting. Has won twice at the same course in Detroit at Rocket Mortgage Classic, showing he strongly favors certain course types. Will be popular, but with good reason at his price.

Adam Svensson $7,200:

+.86 SG over expected last 3 years. Finishing position in those 3 tourneys: T-7, T-41, T-30. Has fared particularly well here Tee-to-Green, gaining 1.44 strokes on the field in 2023, and validating by gaining 1.22 strokes in 2024. Sometimes, a course simply fits the eye and the game of a player. Waialae CC seems to do just that for the Canadian-born grinder.

Harry Hall $8,100:

+1.24 SG over expected last 2 years. Finished T-28 & T-42 in those starts. Strong performance last week with a T-8 finish in strong, top-heavy field. Seems to have found a new level of performance, with top-14 finishes in four consecutive events dating back to October.

BEST VALUE RATINGS:

Hideki Matsuyama $11,000:

Value +.89 Despite being the highest-priced player, rates as a top-5 value. Doesn’t often lose good form week-to-week. Won the Sony Open in 022. Projected to be the highest-rostered player, but with good reason. Click with confidence.

Andrew Novak $7,400:

Value +1.00 Iron play is the strength of his game. Finished T-12 at Sony in 2022. Fall swing saw him finish T-16, 2nd, T-35 during a 4 week stretch from late October to late November. He is primed and ready to level up again in 2025 after his best season on tour in 2024.

Sepp Straka $8,000:

Value +.88 Tends to ride good form and string good finishes together. Great tee-to-green performance last week at the Sentry (+1.72 SG on field). Three consecutive cuts made at Sony, highlighted by T-25 finish in 2020.

Chris Kirk $7,800:

Value +.90 Listing him again in this section to show the course fit matches past performance. Projected to be on just over 10% of GPP rosters, but it should be worth swallowing.

CT Pan $6,900:

Value +.66 Felt the need to include a lower salary value play. Not much course history to note, but the course should fit his game well. Tends to pop up and contend seemingly out of nowhere, which is the type of high-upside player I like in this price range. Finished T-3 at Mexico, T-2 at John Deere in 2024 with no other top-20 finishes in other 19 starts until fall swing. Finished T-6 at Zozo Championship in late October.

SLEEPERS AND NEWCOMERS:

Mac Meissner $7,100:

If you followed along last season, Mac was mentioned quite often over a great stretch of golf from May-July. While not elite in either approach or off-the-tee, he steadily gains strokes on the field in both categories. This course should suit him well despite not playing here previously, as illustrated by his +.52 value rating.

Michael Thorbjornsen $7,400:

Sometimes talent transcends data, and I’m betting on this being the case with MT. His T-8 finish at the RSM and a T-2 at the John Deere in the fall showed that the course doesn’t need to favor bombers for his powerful game to thrive. The RSM was played at the Sea Island Seaside course, a Par 70 playing just over 7,000 yards and featuring only two par-5 holes. Sound familiar? He secured his card through PGA Tour U like Ludvig Aberg and has similar talent. It may not be long before he’s priced much higher. Take advantage of the value while you can.

Brian Campbell $6,600:

The first-year PGA Tour card holder fits at the Sony Open, with a +.46 value rating. Finally breaking through at age 31, he should have a “playing with house money” type attitude while enjoying a week on the big island in Hawaii. Campbell notably finished T-2 in the Korn Ferry Tour Championship, performing his best when it mattered most. Also qualifying for the US Open in 2024, he did make the cut while finishing T-56 at Pinehurst #2. While he doesn’t have the high-level pedigree of some other KFT grads, he could be the first to make noise during the 2025 season. In my view, one of the best values on the board at his price.

Worthy of a wager: (odds @ DK Sportsbook)

Top 20 bets:

Taylor Montgomery 10-1

Bud Cauley 4-1

Zach Johnson 6-1

Adam Svensson 3-1

Top 10 bets:

Mac Meissner 7-1

CT Pan 8-1

Keith Mitchell 7.5-1

Top 5 bets: Cam Davis 9-1

Michael Thorbjornsen 10-1

Sepp Straka 8-1

Outright winner:

Russell Henley 20-1

Sepp Straka 45-1

Michael Thorbjornsen 60-1

Parlay a few of these together for a mini lottery ticket and root like hell. Crazier things have happened.

Let’s have a great week. Cheers!