FREE 01/16 PGA Cheat Sheet: American Express DFS Plays

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The Sony Open once again produced a dramatic finish, with Nick Taylor chipping in for eagle on the 72nd hole to force a playoff with Nico Echavarria. Taylor then birdied the 18th hole consecutively to win, besting Echavarria who made par the second time around. It was another bunched leaderboard, and while it wasn’t packed with big names, the tournament again delivered an entertaining finish. The bunched-up leaderboard produced some heartbreaking results for the wagers portion of last week’s article. Recommended 6/1 top-20 bet Zach Johnson finished a stroke out of the $$ at T-21, and 3/1 top-20 bet Adam Svensson missed paying off by 2 strokes. To add insult to injury, another guy named Svensson finished 3 strokes better than Adam did. Jasper!? Fittingly, it sounds a bit like an expletive when you say it right. CT Pan, a recommended 8/1 top-10 wager, finished at -10, two strokes out of the money, as did Mac Meissner, who went off at 7/1 for a top-10.

As for the highlighted DK players, a few of the recommended DraftKings fantasy plays performed quite well, with Harry Hall being the highlight. Finishing T-10 was nice, but it was the prolific birdie making that had him high on the DK scoring list. Making 22 for the tournament, he was T-3 in the birdies made category and added an eagle on Sunday to boost his score that much more. Hall has now finished between T-8 and T-14 over his last five events played, dating back to October of 2024. An impressive stretch of golf for the Englishman, he seems to have found a new level of performance. Will be keeping an eye on his game trends as we move forward through the season. Meissner, CT Pan, Straka, and Svensson made for good plays of those who were recommended, with Pan being the highlight with a T-21 finish at his discounted $6,900 salary.

With the two Hawaii tournaments now completed, the tour heads to the Coachella Valley for the first of three consecutive events in California. Formerly named the Bob Hope Desert Classic, the American Express Championship typically produces a low-scoring event, with the previous 4 tournament winners finishing between -23 and -29. The tournament rotates between 3 different courses, with the Pete Dye designed TPC West Stadium course being played twice by the remaining field on Sunday, who make the 54-hole cut. The 2024 event was historic, with Nick Dunlap hoisting the trophy to become the first amateur to win on the PGA Tour since Phil Mickelson did so in 1991. This week looks to be another shootout with birdies galore. We will focus on the Stadium course for the course breakdown. The 156-player field will be cut to the top 65 & ties after Saturday’s third round.

TPC West Stadium course is a par 72, measuring just over 7,200 yards. It features four Par 5 holes where making birdies will be critical. Fairways are wider than typical on tour, and this event sets up as an approach play and putting contest. Due to some forced layups, there will be more approach shots struck from the 150-175-yard range. Desert-style courses will often find “native area” bordering the fairways. Watch out for snakes! The pin locations and green complexes on the Stadium course lead to a lot of putts from outside of 10′. Most players putting from similar distances turns this into a putting contest. Jon Rahm was famously caught on a hot mic walking off a green saying, “Fu&#*ng piece of s#*t putting contest”. What was implied by his words is that it’s difficult for the best to separate from the less talented players due to the course setup. It’s not a ringing endorsement for the event, but we can use this information to our advantage.

IMPORTANT STATS:

SG: Approach

Birdie or Better %

SG Putting!

SG in California

SG on easy courses

S

HORSES FOR THE COURSE(S):

Adam Hadwin $7,700:

Career +2.24 strokes gained over expected. T-32, T-25, T-18, T-6 in the last 4 years at the Am Ex. Showed signs of good form in Hawaii, making the Sony Open cut while putting uncharacteristically awful. Approach game and around the green was solid and putting should return to form on familiar greens. Hadwin projects to be quite popular for this price range at 14%, so click with that in mind. Must balance out with lower-rostered players to accompany him if you like him.

Andrew Putnam $7,200:

Career +1.75 SG over expected. Finishes of T-10, T-21, T-14, T-36, T-47 in his last 5 starts at Am Ex. Finished T-30 at the Sony, riding strong approach play (60/72 GIR, +.72 SG-Approach per round) and solid putting and around-the-greens play. Tour veteran needs to play well at the events that suit his game. Not a long hitter, he’ll likely need to rely on that strong approach play to continue, combined with familiarity with the greens in order to contend.

Si Woo Kim $9,100:

Career +1.8 SG over expected. Finished 1st, T-11, T-22, T-25 in his last four appearances at the Am Ex. With a balky putter costing him his chance to play the weekend at the Sony, Kim comes in a little under the radar at a projected 14% (Second lowest of 8 players in the $9,000-$9,900 range). Time has shown Si Woo to be a Pete Dye course specialist, and with the depressed rostership projection, he makes for a nice GPP option. With the putter losing almost 3 strokes per round at the Sony, I can see why most would shy away from targeting the South Korean sensation. This seems like a perfect time to get him at low ownership at an event he’s thrived at.

Tom Hoge $7,800:

Career +1.79 SG over expected. Finishes of T-6, CUT, 2, T-32, T-17 in the last 5. Has flashed good form thus far in 2025 with T-8 @ Sentry, T-45 last week. Bleeding strokes off the tee (-.9/round over last 8) but solid play otherwise, especially on approach (+.95/round at Sony, +1.67/round at Sentry). Fairways hit % at this event is 4% higher than average, so Hoge’s biggest weakness shouldn’t cost him like it will at Torrey Pines next week. Projected 14% rostered, among the highest in the $7,000-$7,900 range, so select other players with this in mind.

Sam Burns $9,800:

Career +1.96 SG over expected. Results of T-6, CUT, DNP, T-11, T-6 over the previous 5 years. Gained strokes off-the-tee and putting on the way to T-8 finish at Sentry. Tends to play well at the same courses year after year. Hasn’t finished worse than T-14 in his last 6 starts. This event tends to become a putting contest, and he’s one of the best in that area.

BEST VALUE RATINGS:

Sungjae Im $10,300:

+.85 value rating. Even as the second-highest-priced player, he screams value at his price as the best player in the field. Great start to the season at Sentry, finishing 3rd. Encouragingly gained 1.35 strokes per round, putting at Kampala. Not typically the strength of his game, if the putter does stay hot, expect him to contend for the win.

Patrick Cantlay $9,600:

+.74 value rating. Cantlay had a down season in 2024 but finished the season strong and has been no worse than 17th in his last 5 starts. Most recently at the Sentry, where he finished T-15.

Kurt Kitayama $8,700:

+1.00 value rating. Off the tee game was strong last week at Sony. He is typically strong on approach, so if that normalizes, he’ll score very well. Very little course history here, but the setup of a birdie fest should suit him. Underappreciated ball striker ready to win again.

Sepp Straka $7,600:

+.81 value rating. The tee-to-green play has continued to be stellar. At Sony, he had his 5th consecutive event, averaging over 1.00 SG approach per round. First impression was that he’s underpriced, given the field strength and value rating agrees. Will be popular, but is a very likely bet to make the cut and rack up birdies. Had T-4 finish at this event in 2020. Seems to be on a heater, and you don’t leave the table on a heater.

Mac Meissner $7,400:

+.72 value rating. Mac is back in play this week. Gained 1.54 strokes per round on approach at Sony last week. Typically, a well-rounded player who does not rely on any one aspect of his game. Last week should serve as a way to sharpen his game and contend at a birdie fest. MM is an ascending talent and could level up similar to the way Davis Thompson did in 2024.

Max McGreevy $6,900:

+.58 value rating. Yes, I live in Detroit, but the M&M duplicate initials here was just a coincidence. Oklahoma product is just starting his second PGA Tour campaign. Won twice on KFT last season to earn his card again. Approach play is typically his strength. Course fit is there despite limited course history. Want to be early on this one. His value gives you the ability to fit Sungjae and/or Burns up top.

SLEEPERS:

Sam Ryder $6,700:

Great start to the season at Sony, gaining around 1/2 a stroke on the field per round on approach play, around the green, and putting on the way to a T-21 finish. Driving is not his strength, but these courses don’t ask a lot of you off the tee. Combination of continued strong approach play with a hot putter will be the key if he is to pay off his salary.

Brian Campbell $6,600:

After writing him up last week, Campbell had me feeling good with a first-round -3 67 while gaining almost 2 strokes on approach play. Then he fell ill and had to withdraw, seemingly foreshadowing the Sunday gut punches that were yet to come. I’m undeterred and jumping back on board. BC will be almost completely unrostered and a great option for a “studs and duds” approach to lineup construction.

Antoine Rozner $6,800:

The Frenchman comes to the States for his 2025 PGA Tour debut. Last fall, he utilized strong tee-to-green play to finishes of 4th, T-6 and T-3 between October and November. Risk here is that he doesn’t translate his game well to the US, but I’m betting on the talent.

WORTHY OF A WAGER:

WINNERS:

Sungjae Im 14/1: Not typically a fan of betting winners at this price, but he’s the class of this field. Could win with his B+ game.

JT Poston 55/1: If it’s a putting contest come Sunday, I like Poston to fare well. Gets a lot out of his game and seizes opportunities when they come.

Antoine Rozner 120/1: Would be an unexpected story, but Rozner has game. Putt well and there’s a good chance he’s lurking on Sunday.

Top 10 wagers:

Nick Dunlap 4/1: Last year’s winner showed solid form over the weekend at Sony, especially on the greens, while gaining +1.90 per round. May not win in his title defense, but should show well. Parlay with Detroit Lions -9.5, and you’re looking at 8.6/1 odds

Christian Bezuidenhout 5.5/1: Mediocre start to 2025 at Sentry (T-40), but the courses are completely different than Kapalua. Another great putter that I want to back this week. Shying away for rostership % reasons in DFS, but like the South African to show well in California this week. Parlay with Detroit Lions -9.5, and you’re look at 11.5/1 odds.

Top 20 wagers:

Jackson Suber 4/1: Hot approach play and putting were catalysts to last week’s T-6 finish. Bodes well for the course set ups this week. Hoping he rode the wave of good vibes through the Pacific from Hawaii to Cali. Early high finish takes a lot of pressure off with respect to keeping his card.

Sam Ryder 5.5/1: As previously referenced, solid approach play and putting helped him to a T-21 finish at Sony. Has made 4/5 cuts at Am Ax. Refocused last season and has continued to work. Truly elite approach game when it’s going well.