FREE 04/03 PGA Cheat Sheet: Valero Texas Open DFS Plays

The Valero Texas Open offers a unique DFS challenge as the PGA Tour makes its final stop before The Masters. With 144 players in the field and an average salary of $7,042, roster construction will require careful planning, especially with only one golfer projected for 20%+ ownership and no standout value plays (12x+ value). TPC San Antonio’s Oaks Course is a long, demanding layout that prioritizes ball striking, particularly strokes gained on approach and around the green. While distance off the tee isn’t critical here, navigating narrow fairways and undulating greens will separate contenders from those heading home early.

This week’s field features a mix of elite talent prepping for Augusta—like Ludvig Aberg, Hideki Matsuyama, and Tommy Fleetwood—and others seeking a last-minute Masters invite by winning in San Antonio. Defending champion Akshay Bhatia headlines alongside two-time winner Corey Conners, with several mid-range options offering potential upside in what’s historically been a tough scoring environment. With wind expected to play a factor over the weekend, targeting strong ball strikers who can handle challenging conditions will be key to success. Let’s dive into our top plays for this slate.

Premium Plays ($10,000+)

Top Play: Corey Conners ($10,100)

Corey Conners ($10,100) is a strong play for the Valero Texas Open, particularly given his combination of recent form and course fit. Conners has been on fire with three consecutive top-10 finishes, including an eighth-place result at the Valspar Championship where he ranked first in greens in regulation and eighth in strokes gained off the tee. His elite ball-striking is tailor-made for TPC San Antonio, a course that rewards precision over raw power. With an 83.4% make-cut rate and a projection of 76.5 DraftKings points, Conners offers both a high floor and significant upside at this price point.

At 24.4% projected ownership, Conners will be one of the most popular plays on the slate, but the chalk looks justified given his profile. His optimal lineup percentage of 14.7% suggests he’s worth considering even in large-field tournaments despite elevated rostership. The salary is steep, but his recent consistency and ability to dominate tee-to-green make him a safe option for cash games while still providing tournament-winning potential. If you’re comfortable eating some chalk in your builds this week, Conners is a solid foundation piece.

Other Premium Options

• Patrick Cantlay ($10,200, MakeCut: 79.3%, Own: 16.0%)
• Ludvig Aberg ($10,800, MakeCut: 80.5%, Own: 15.9%)
• Tommy Fleetwood ($10,700, MakeCut: 81.8%, Own: 18.2%)

Mid-Range Plays ($8,000-$9,999)

Top Play: Denny McCarthy ($9,000)

Denny McCarthy ($9,000) brings a compelling case to the Valero Texas Open with his elite putting and reliable cut-making ability. Ranking second in Strokes Gained: Putting at Bay Hill earlier this month, McCarthy’s flat stick is a clear strength that could shine on TPC San Antonio’s tricky greens. He’s made every cut this season, boasting a 75.5% make-cut rate and ranking sixth in cash-game value for the week. His irons have also shown improvement, gaining 2.43 strokes on approach at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, which adds an encouraging dimension to his game. With a solid projection of 71.3 DraftKings points and an optimal lineup percentage of 13.7%, McCarthy offers both safety and upside, making him particularly appealing in cash formats.

However, his projected ownership of 19.3% makes him one of the chalkier plays on the slate, so it’s worth evaluating whether he warrants that level of exposure in tournaments. While his consistent form and putting prowess justify the popularity to some extent, his $9K salary leaves less room for error if he doesn’t contend for a top finish. Still, McCarthy’s floor as a cut-maker combined with upside from his strong short game makes him hard to fade entirely, especially given the softer field at Valero. Consider balancing exposure by pairing him with lower-owned pivots in GPPs while locking him into cash lineups where stability matters most.

Other Mid-Range Options

• Akshay Bhatia ($9,300, MakeCut: 76.5%, Own: 17.5%)
• Daniel Berger ($9,200, MakeCut: 72.6%, Own: 16.3%)
• Keegan Bradley ($9,500, MakeCut: 75.8%, Own: 16.4%)

Value Plays ($7,000-$7,999)

First Value Play: Ben Griffin ($7,900)

Ben Griffin offers an intriguing balance of value and upside at $7,900 this week, making him a strong consideration for both cash games and tournaments. Despite missing the cut at THE PLAYERS Championship, he had made six consecutive cuts prior to that, including back-to-back T4 finishes earlier in March. His 67.1% make-cut rate and 14.8% optimal lineup percentage highlight his consistency and potential ceiling relative to his salary. Griffin’s accurate driving and solid approach play should translate well at TPC San Antonio, where precision off the tee and consistent ball-striking are key.

While his projected ownership of 12.8% is higher than the field average, it seems warranted given his recent form and statistical profile. He ranks fourth in tournament value and second in cash-game rankings, suggesting he’s underpriced for his potential output. The missed cut at Sawgrass might deter some DFS players, but that creates an opportunity to capitalize on his bounce-back potential at a more forgiving course setup. Overall, Griffin’s combination of floor, ceiling, and reasonable price makes him a viable option in all formats this week.

Second Value Play: Alex Smalley ($7,300)

Alex Smalley ($7,300) presents an intriguing option for the Valero Texas Open, offering a strong mix of value and consistency. His 63.2% make-cut rate is solid for his price range, and his 12.6% optimal lineup percentage highlights his potential upside in DFS contests. Smalley has been steady this season, with six top-25 finishes in seven starts, showcasing a reliable floor that aligns well with the demands of TPC San Antonio. The course’s emphasis on approach play and scrambling suits Smalley’s strengths, as evidenced by his field-leading strokes gained around the green at The PLAYERS Championship. While he struggled in final rounds recently, his overall form suggests he can contend if he avoids late-round letdowns.

At 10.4% projected ownership, Smalley sits slightly above the field average but remains manageable for both cash games and tournaments. His third-place tournament rank and excellent 8.55x value rating reinforce his appeal as a mid-tier option with significant upside relative to salary. While he won’t be a contrarian play, the moderate ownership is justified given his consistency and course fit. For those seeking stability with the potential for top-20 upside at an affordable price, Smalley checks plenty of boxes this week.

Other Value Options

• Lee Hodges ($7,500, MakeCut: 64.2%, Own: 12.4%)
• Patrick Rodgers ($7,400, MakeCut: 60.5%, Own: 3.6%)
• Ryan Gerard ($7,600, MakeCut: 65.6%, Own: 11.9%)

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