FREE 07/10 PGA Cheat Sheet: Top Genesis Scottish Open Plays

The Genesis Scottish Open at The Renaissance Club features a strong 156-player field split between the PGA and DP World Tours, with eight of the world’s top 10 in attendance. The course’s hybrid links-parkland design rewards strong ball-striking, particularly off the tee and on long approach shots, while the forecasted mild winds suggest scoring opportunities will be available. With an average salary of $7,050 and no standout value plays, roster construction will hinge on balancing high-floor options in the mid-range with the elite talent at the top.

Scottie Scheffler (+360) and Rory McIlroy (+750) dominate the betting odds and are projected for heavy ownership, making differentiation critical in large-field contests. Past winners here have leaned on strong tee-to-green play, and with only two players projected for 20%+ ownership, there’s room to pivot in lineup builds. Let’s dive into our top plays for this slate.

Premium Plays ($10,000+)

Top Play: Scottie Scheffler ($13,100)

Scottie Scheffler’s recent form remains elite despite a few uncharacteristic stumbles, most notably his third-round meltdown at the Travelers Championship where a triple and double derailed his title defense. Even so, his ability to bounce back with a 65 on Sunday to secure yet another top-10—his ninth straight—highlights the resilience of the world No. 1. While his iron play and driving accuracy remain as sharp as ever, his putting has been inconsistent, which could be a factor on the firm, windswept greens of the Renaissance Club. Given his 90.5% make-cut rate, he’s about as safe a bet as it gets to play the weekend, but his high ownership reflects the field’s confidence in his ability to contend.

The Scottish Open’s coastal layout demands precision into tight, sloping greens, and Scheffler’s elite approach game should thrive here—if he can avoid the occasional loose swing that cost him at Oakmont and TPC River Highlands. His scrambling has been solid, a crucial skill when the Scottish breezes push shots off-line, but his recent weekends have shown rare lapses in focus. Still, with a top-25 cash game rank and a knack for finding contention, Scheffler’s floor is higher than almost anyone in the field. The question isn’t whether he’ll be in the mix, but whether he can clean up the mistakes that have kept him from closing.

Other Premium Options

• Rory McIlroy ($11,400, MakeCut: 80.3%, Own: 22.5%)
• Xander Schauffele ($10,100, MakeCut: 76.8%, Own: 13.3%)

Mid-Range Plays ($8,000-$9,999)

Top Play: Tommy Fleetwood ($9,900)

Tommy Fleetwood still has a lingering sting from his Travelers collapse, where a late bogey-bogey finish cost him his first PGA Tour win. While the mental toll of that finish is a concern, his recent ball-striking has been sublime—he gained over six strokes on approach at TPC River Highlands before the Sunday stumble. The Renaissance Club’s firm, links-style conditions should suit his elite iron play and creativity around the greens, though his occasionally shaky putting (ranked 112th in SG: Putting last season) could be tested on these tricky, undulating surfaces. Given his 77% make-cut rate and top-15 cash game appeal, he’s a high-floor option despite the heavy 18% ownership.

Fleetwood’s game fits the Scottish Open like a tailored glove—his ability to flight knockdown irons and scramble in windy conditions aligns perfectly with coastal demands. Though his U.S. Open MC at brutal Oakmont was forgettable, his prior form included five straight top-25s worldwide, showcasing his trademark consistency when setups reward precision over power. The key question is whether he can shake off the Travelers heartbreak; if so, his elite tee-to-green game (13th in SG: Total last year) makes him a threat. Just hope the putter cooperates—because when it does, few can match Fleetwood’s blend of artistry and grit on a stage like this.

Other Mid-Range Options

• Sam Burns ($9,000, MakeCut: 74.4%, Own: 17.1%)
• Justin Thomas ($9,200, MakeCut: 71.0%, Own: 10.5%)

Value Plays ($7,000-$7,999)

First Value Play: Keith Mitchell ($7,400)

Keith Mitchell is searching for a spark after a brutal stretch that saw him miss three of his last four cuts, including a disastrous second-round 78 at the Rocket Classic where he bled strokes everywhere—losing 5.5 off the tee and 7.1 around the greens. That said, his underlying ball-striking pedigree remains intriguing; when his driver cooperates, he’s one of the tour’s elite in SG: Off-the-Tee, and this coastal links test could suit his high, piercing ball flight if winds pick up. The key will be whether his short game—historically his Achilles’ heel—can hold up on firm, unpredictable surfaces.

At 8.6% ownership in a field where most are overlooking him, Mitchell’s upside is worth a flier. He ranks fourth in our tournament model thanks to his ability to dominate par 5s and scramble effectively when needed—a must at a course where misplaced drives are inevitable. While his recent form is shaky, his 61% make-cut rate suggests he’s typically a safe bet to play the weekend. If he can tighten up his iron play and avoid the blow-up holes that plagued him at the Rocket Classic, Mitchell’s combination of power and touch could make him a sneaky contender.

Second Value Play: Max Greyserman ($7,800)

Max Greyserman is fresh off a heartbreaking playoff loss at the Rocket Classic, where his clutch putting nearly secured his first PGA Tour win. His recent surge—highlighted by a fifth-place finish in SG: Approach at Colonial—shows his irons are dialed in, a critical asset on a links-style course demanding precision into firm, wind-swept greens. While his 61.9% make-cut rate suggests occasional inconsistency, his top-20 tournament rank reflects upside when his ball-striking clicks. The Scottish Open’s emphasis on creativity around the greens could play to his scrambling strengths, especially if he maintains the sharp wedge game that nearly stole the win last month.

Greyserman’s game suits tracks where controlled ball flight and touch matter more than raw distance, and this week’s setup should reward his patience. His near-10% ownership is a nod to his recent form, but it’s his knack for hanging around leaderboards—three runner-ups last year, plus the Rocket Classic near-miss—that makes him intriguing. If he can tidy up his occasional driving inaccuracy and keep the putter warm, he’s got the tools to outperform his mid-range salary. For a player hovering just outside the FedExCup top 50, another strong showing here could finally unlock that elusive breakthrough.

Other Value Options

• Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen ($7,600, MakeCut: 67.3%, Own: 11.6%)
• Chris Gotterup ($7,100, MakeCut: 64.1%, Own: 11.1%)

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