FREE 07/17 PGA Cheat Sheet: Top Open Championship Plays

The Open Championship at Royal Portrush (Dunluce Links) features a 156-player field with a cut to the top 70 and ties, offering a mix of elite talent and international qualifiers. The course demands precision off the tee and on approach, with internal OB hazards, elevation changes, and challenging par 3s like the 236-yard “Calamity” hole. DraftKings pricing is top-heavy, with Scottie Scheffler at $14,200 and Rory McIlroy at $11,500, but nearly 80% of the field is priced under $7,000, creating flexibility for roster construction.

Weather could play a significant role, with cool temperatures, rain, and wind expected, particularly for the early Thursday wave. Recent Open winners have excelled in strokes gained: approach and scrambling, making iron play and short-game skills critical. Lineup builds will require careful balancing of star power and calculated risks. Let’s dive into our top plays for this slate.

Premium Plays ($10,000+)

Top Play: Scottie Scheffler ($14,200)

Scottie Scheffler arrives at Royal Portrush riding a wave of elite ball-striking, but the lingering question remains his ability to adapt to the slower, unpredictable greens of links golf. Despite ranking 64th in strokes gained: putting at the Scottish Open, his T8 finish highlighted just how dominant his iron play and off-the-tee performance have been—a recipe that’s fueled 10 straight top-10s. The concern is whether his shaky short game on these surfaces will cap his ceiling, especially at an Open Championship where scrambling and creativity around the greens often separate contenders from champions. Still, with a 92% make-cut rate and four straight Open finishes inside the top 25, his floor is as safe as anyone’s in the field.

Royal Portrush demands precision with long irons and patience in the wind, both of which play directly into Scheffler’s strengths. His recent T6 at the Travelers showcased his ability to grind through uneven rounds, a trait that’s served him well in past Opens. While his ownership will be high—nearly seven times the field average—it’s justified given his knack for contention. If he can find even average form on the greens, his elite tee-to-green game makes him a threat to finally break through for his first Claret Jug.

Other Premium Options

• Rory McIlroy ($11,500, MakeCut: 84.5%, Own: 23.6%)
• Bryson DeChambeau ($10,100, MakeCut: 87.7%, Own: 11.4%)

Mid-Range Plays ($8,000-$9,999)

Top Play: Tommy Fleetwood ($9,500)

Tommy Fleetwood arrives at The Open Championship carrying both momentum and heartbreak after his agonizing near-miss at the Travelers, where a final-hole bogey cost him his first PGA Tour victory. While the mental toll of that collapse is a concern, his game is clearly in sharp form—he’s made 11 of his last 14 cuts and ranks 31st in cash game reliability, showcasing the consistency that makes him a popular pick at 18% ownership. Fleetwood’s elite iron play (he’s gained strokes on approach in seven of his last nine events) should suit Royal Portrush’s demanding layout, where precision into firm greens is paramount. If he can clean up his occasional scrambling lapses—evident in his U.S. Open MC—his creativity around the greens could shine on these unpredictable links.

The Englishman’s recent rollercoaster—from contention in Connecticut to struggling at Oakmont—highlights both his ceiling and volatility. Fleetwood thrives on coastal tests (see his runner-up at Portrush in 2019), where his imaginative shot-making and tidy putting stroke offset his below-average driving distance. With an 82% make-cut rate this season, he’s rarely an early exit risk, but his tendency to falter under Sunday pressure remains the final hurdle. Given his affinity for this venue and a game built for patience in the wind, Fleetwood’s blend of course history and current ball-striking form makes him a compelling option, albeit one carrying emotional baggage from his latest close call.

Other Mid-Range Options

• Xander Schauffele ($9,700, MakeCut: 83.5%, Own: 17.3%)
• Tyrrell Hatton ($8,900, MakeCut: 83.9%, Own: 16.7%)

Value Plays ($7,000-$7,999)

First Value Play: Jordan Spieth ($7,700)

Jordan Spieth’s creativity and short-game mastery make him a perennial threat in links golf, and his current form suggests he’s primed for another strong Open Championship. Despite a bizarre mid-round withdrawal at the Travelers due to neck spasms, he’s since confirmed full health, and his game has been quietly solid this season—ranked fifth in the field for this event. His elite scrambling and knack for grinding out pars in brutal conditions should shine at Royal Portrush, where patience and imagination around the greens often separate contenders from the pack. The fact he’s one of the most owned players in the field reflects confidence in his ability to deliver, and his 15.6% optimal lineup rate underscores his upside when everything clicks.

The delayed arrival awaiting his child’s birth adds an unpredictable layer, but Spieth has thrived amid chaos before. His iron play hasn’t been as sharp as his peak years, but he’s still shown flashes of brilliance, particularly on approach shots from uneven lies—a must at Portrush. With a 73.9% make-cut rate, he’s a reliable cash-game option, and his ability to spike with low rounds keeps him in the mix for GPPs. If he can channel his famed putter and avoid big numbers off the tee, Spieth’s blend of grit and shotmaking could vault him into contention come Sunday.

Second Value Play: Matt Fitzpatrick ($7,800)

Matt Fitzpatrick arrives at The Open Championship riding a wave of momentum, fresh off a T4 at the Genesis Scottish Open where his short game bailed out uneven ball-striking. Ranking sixth in both SG: Around-the-Green and Putting last week, he showcased the scrambling prowess that makes him a threat on any links layout—especially when winds pick up and demand creative recovery shots. With three top-10s in his last seven starts, the former U.S. Open champion has rediscovered the consistency that eluded him early this season, and his ability to grind out scores when not at his best (73.5% make-cut rate) adds a safe floor for fantasy lineups.

The subtle contours of Royal Troon should suit Fitzpatrick’s precise iron play and knack for lag putting, though he’ll need to tighten up his driving accuracy to avoid the penal fescue. His T8 at the Rocket Classic last month proved he can contend on classical setups, and his 12.9% optimal lineup rate reflects how frequently he delivers when conditions demand patience. While he’s drawing above-average ownership, Fitzpatrick’s blend of recent form and versatility—coupled with proven success in windy conditions—makes him a compelling mid-tier option who could thrive if he keeps the big numbers off his card.

Other Value Options

• Sepp Straka ($7,400, MakeCut: 72.6%, Own: 15.2%)
• Ben Griffin ($7,300, MakeCut: 73.0%, Own: 10.8%)

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