FREE 04/21 MLB Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s six-game MLB DFS slate offers a mix of intriguing pitching matchups and modest run totals, with no game carrying an over/under higher than 8.5 runs. The STL-ATL matchup stands out with its 8.5 total and hitter-friendly conditions in Atlanta, where warm temperatures (83°F) and an 8 MPH wind blowing out could give bats a slight edge. On the flip side, the TOR-HOU game features the lowest total at just 7.5 runs, as Kevin Gausman and Hunter Brown square off in Houston’s domed stadium.

Weather-wise, most games should proceed without any issues, but keep an eye on park factors that could influence outcomes. In Detroit, a strong 22 MPH wind blowing right to left might impact ball flight in the SD-DET contest, while cooler temperatures (52°F) in New York for PHI-NYM could suppress some offense despite Aaron Nola’s matchup against a Mets lineup capable of doing damage. With several mid-tier pitchers on the slate and no Coors Field-like environments to anchor lineups, tonight calls for strategic roster construction across both hitting and pitching options.

Top Stacks

HOU 5-Man ($22,100)

Jose Altuve, Isaac Paredes, Yordan Alvarez, Jeremy Pena, Christian Walker

The HOU 5-man stack of Altuve, Paredes, Alvarez, Pena, and Walker projects for 39.2 points with a solid value of 1.77 pts/$1000, making it a viable mid-tier DFS option. This stack benefits from strong lineup correlation, as all players are positioned consecutively in the batting order (1-5), maximizing run and RBI opportunities. The offensive environment is neutral with a 7.5 game total, but playing in a domed stadium eliminates weather concerns. Ownership is modest at an average of 8.3%, offering some leverage compared to its optimal lineup rate of 11.2%. While this stack doesn’t project as elite value, the concentrated core in premium lineup spots enhances its upside potential against an average opposing pitcher or bullpen.

ATL 5-Man ($22,700)

Alex Verdugo, Austin Riley, Marcell Ozuna, Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies

The ATL 5-man stack of Verdugo, Riley, Ozuna, Olson, and Albies projects for 42.0 points at a value of 1.85 pts/$1000, making it a strong but not elite option in terms of efficiency. The team benefits from an excellent offensive environment with an 8.5 game total and favorable weather conditions—83°F and wind blowing out at 8 MPH—which could enhance power potential in Atlanta’s hitter-friendly park. This stack maximizes lineup correlation with players batting consecutively (1-5), increasing RBI and run-scoring opportunities. However, the average ownership of 16% is moderately high relative to its optimal rate of 10.9%, suggesting it may be slightly over-owned in tournaments. While the stack offers significant upside given its concentrated production potential in premium lineup spots, its ownership warrants consideration when balancing risk-reward in GPPs.

SF 5-Man ($21,500)

Mike Yastrzemski, Willy Adames, Jung Hoo Lee, Matt Chapman, Heliot Ramos

The SF 5-man stack, featuring Yastrzemski, Adames, Lee, Chapman, and Ramos, projects for 39.5 points with a solid value of 1.84 pts/$1000 on a $21,500 salary. The lineup benefits from strong correlation with sequential batting order positions (1-5), maximizing RBI and run-scoring opportunities in this game environment. Facing an opponent in a game with an 8.0 total and clear weather (65°F with an 8 MPH wind blowing out at Oracle Park), the offensive conditions slightly favor hitters despite San Francisco’s pitcher-friendly park factors. The stack’s average ownership of 8.8% provides leverage in tournaments as its optimal rate of 10.4% suggests it is underutilized relative to its upside. This combination of low-to-moderate ownership, favorable lineup correlation, and decent value makes the stack a viable option for GPP formats.

SP Plays

Top Play: Nick Lodolo ($8,700)

Nick Lodolo checks plenty of boxes for DFS tonight at $8,700. The left-hander has been sharp to start the season, posting a 2.31 ERA and an impressive 14:2 K:BB ratio across 23.1 innings. Facing the Marlins in Miami—a pitcher-friendly ballpark—he’s set up well against a lineup that has struggled with left-handed pitching, ranking near the bottom of the league in wOBA and striking out at a 24.6% clip versus southpaws. With a projection of 16.5 DraftKings points and appearing in over 30% of optimal lineups, Lodolo offers both floor and upside at his salary.

The one caveat here is ownership, as Lodolo is expected to be rostered by over 25% of the field, making him one of the chalkier options on the slate. While this level of ownership could limit his appeal in large-field GPPs, it’s not unwarranted given his matchup and recent consistency—he’s delivered double-digit DK points in all four starts this year, including two outings over 20 points. If you’re comfortable eating some chalk, Lodolo is a strong play; otherwise, consider pivoting to lower-owned arms for leverage in tournaments.

Honorable Mentions

• Spencer Schwellenbach ($9,500)
• Robbie Ray ($7,500)

C Plays

Top Play: William Contreras ($4,500)

William Contreras ($4,500) offers a strong mix of value and upside in tonight’s slate. Batting cleanup for the Brewers, he’s in a prime RBI spot against the Giants in San Francisco. While Oracle Park isn’t typically known as a hitter-friendly environment, Contreras’ recent form and power potential make him an appealing option. Over his last seven games, he’s hitting .370 with three home runs and 10 RBIs, showing both consistency and pop at the plate. His 1.82x value projection and 15.4% optimal lineup rate highlight his viability across formats.

At 19.7% projected ownership, Contreras is one of the chalkier plays at catcher, but it’s easy to see why DFS players are gravitating toward him. He’s affordable relative to his production, and the Brewers face a Giants pitching staff that has struggled against right-handed bats this season. While his popularity limits leverage in tournaments, the combination of his lineup spot, recent hot streak, and reasonable salary makes him worth considering in cash games or as part of Milwaukee stacks in GPPs.

Honorable Mentions

• Yainer Diaz ($3,300)
• Sean Murphy ($4,600)

1B Plays

Top Play: Spencer Steer ($3,200)

Spencer Steer ($3,200) offers intriguing value in tonight’s matchup against Miami. While hitting out of the 6th spot in the Reds’ lineup limits his plate appearances slightly, his projected 2.09x value and a 16.5% optimal lineup rate make him a strong tournament option at this salary. Miami’s ballpark isn’t typically hitter-friendly, but Steer’s multi-position eligibility (1B/3B) adds roster flexibility, and his moderate ownership (7.1%) provides some leverage compared to higher-owned options in similar price ranges.

Steer’s recent performance shows flashes of upside, including an 18-point DK outing just a few days ago. As a right-handed batter facing Marlins pitching, he has an opportunity to contribute in what could be a low-owned stack with Cincinnati bats. While he isn’t likely to carry your lineup on his own, his combination of value and relatively low ownership makes him a solid secondary piece for tournaments, especially if you’re looking to differentiate in large-field contests.

Honorable Mentions

• Eric Wagaman ($3,100)
• Christian Walker ($4,000)

2B Plays

Top Play: Matt McLain ($5,200)

Matt McLain ($5,200) offers an intriguing mix of power and speed in tonight’s matchup against the Marlins. Slotted into the valuable second spot in Cincinnati’s lineup, McLain is positioned to maximize plate appearances and scoring opportunities. While his .205 average may not jump off the page, his .340 OBP and .538 slugging percentage highlight his ability to contribute in multiple ways. Facing a Miami pitching staff that has been inconsistent at limiting right-handed bats, McLain’s power upside—evidenced by four home runs this season—makes him a viable option in tournaments. His recent multi-hit game and homer show he’s capable of delivering high-end fantasy performances.

At 12.6% projected ownership, McLain is slightly above the field average but still reasonable for GPP play given his ceiling and optimal lineup rate of 10.8%. While he doesn’t come at a discount, his combination of batting order, matchup, and recent form makes him worth consideration even at this salary tier. If you’re looking for a second baseman with legitimate upside who won’t completely break the bank, McLain fits the mold nicely in what could be a favorable hitting environment in Miami.

Honorable Mentions

• Caleb Durbin ($2,000)
• Jose Altuve ($5,000)

3B Plays

Top Play: Connor Norby ($3,100)

Connor Norby ($3,100) offers intriguing value at third base tonight in a matchup against Cincinnati. Projected for 7.3 DK points with a strong 2.35x value rating, he’s an appealing mid-range option, particularly given his premium lineup spot batting third for Miami. Norby is coming off an encouraging three-hit game that included a stolen base, showcasing some speed upside to complement his contact skills. While the Marlins’ offense isn’t the most potent, hitting near the top of the order maximizes his opportunities to contribute in multiple categories.

At 12.2% projected ownership, Norby is slightly above the field average but not prohibitively chalky. His inclusion in 9.1% of optimal lineups suggests he’s a viable play in both cash games and tournaments, especially given his salary flexibility. The matchup against Cincinnati doesn’t stand out as overly difficult, making him a solid choice if you’re looking for value without sacrificing upside in your DFS builds tonight.

Honorable Mentions

• Austin Riley ($5,000)
• Matt Chapman ($4,500)

SS Plays

Top Play: Elly De La Cruz ($5,800)

Elly De La Cruz ($5,800) brings an intriguing mix of power and speed to tonight’s matchup against the Marlins. Hitting third for Cincinnati, he’s in a prime lineup spot to maximize his opportunities in a game where the Reds should see plenty of chances to score. De La Cruz has been on a tear recently, racking up three home runs and four stolen bases over his last five games, resulting in DraftKings totals of 17+ points in three straight contests. His multi-category upside is further bolstered by his left-handed bat against right-handed pitching, especially with Miami’s ballpark playing slightly more hitter-friendly this season.

At 16.7% projected ownership, De La Cruz is one of the chalkier plays at shortstop, but it’s easy to see why. He appears in 15.7% of optimal lineups and offers solid value at 1.66x his salary projection. While the high ownership might limit his appeal in large-field tournaments for those looking to differentiate their builds, it’s hard to argue against his combination of recent production and ceiling potential. If you’re comfortable eating some chalk, De La Cruz is a strong play with legitimate upside thanks to his ability to contribute across all scoring categories.

Honorable Mentions

• Willy Adames ($4,100)
• Xander Bogaerts ($4,000)

OF Plays

Top Play: Alex Verdugo ($3,300)

Alex Verdugo ($3,300) offers strong value in tonight’s DFS contests as he leads off for the Braves against the Cardinals. Batting first in the order ensures maximum plate appearances, and his left-handed bat matches up well against a right-handed-heavy Cardinals bullpen that has struggled to contain lefty hitters. With a 2.32x value projection and appearing in 16.9% of optimal lineups, Verdugo’s combination of floor and ceiling is appealing at this salary, especially with Atlanta looking to capitalize on a favorable hitting environment.

While his projected ownership (17.6%) is higher than average, it’s justified given his premium lineup spot and recent production. Verdugo went 4-for-5 just two games ago, showcasing his ability to generate both hits and runs from the top of the order. At $3,300, he’s an affordable way to gain exposure to Atlanta’s offense without sacrificing upside, making him a viable option in both cash games and tournaments despite the chalkier ownership.

Honorable Mentions

• Fernando Tatis Jr. ($6,000)
• Yordan Alvarez ($5,100)

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