FREE 05/22 MLB Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s 4-game MLB slate features a couple of moderately high totals, with the Brewers-Pirates game carrying the highest at 9 runs. The Mariners-Astros matchup also stands out with an 8.5 total in a domed stadium, so weather won’t be a factor there. Pitching matchups to watch include Tanner Bibee against Jack Flaherty in Cleveland-Detroit, where the Tigers get a slight wind boost blowing out at 16 mph.

Weather could impact two games tonight, as both Milwaukee-Pittsburgh and Atlanta-Washington have notable rain chances, particularly in Pittsburgh with a 67% chance of precipitation that could lead to delays or postponements. The rest of the slate looks more stable, but those conditions are worth monitoring when finalizing lineups.

Top Stacks

ATL 5-Man ($21,700)

Alex Verdugo, Austin Riley, Matt Olson, Marcell Ozuna, Drake Baldwin

The ATL stack offers solid value at 1.97 points per $1000 with a total salary of $21,700, making it an efficient option for MLB DFS lineups. Despite a moderate average ownership of 23.7%, the optimal lineup rate is slightly lower at 17.4%, indicating that this stack is somewhat underutilized relative to its output potential. The game total sits at a reasonable 8.5 runs, suggesting a balanced offensive environment without extreme volatility. Weather conditions in Washington, D.C., present some risk with a 34% chance of rain and potential delays, but the temperature of 63°F and an 11 MPH wind are unlikely to drastically affect gameplay or scoring. Overall, this stack’s combination of strong individual hitters like Verdugo, Riley, Olson, Ozuna, and Baldwin aligns well with the projected run environment and ownership metrics for efficient DFS targeting.

SEA 5-Man ($23,500)

J.P. Crawford, Jorge Polanco, Julio Rodriguez, Cal Raleigh, Randy Arozarena

The SEA stack offers solid value at 1.77 points per $1000 with a total salary of $23,500, making it an efficient use of salary in MLB DFS. With an average ownership of 15.3% and an optimal lineup rate slightly higher at 17.3%, this stack strikes a balance between popularity and leverage potential. The game’s total sits at a moderate 8.5 runs, suggesting a reasonable scoring environment without extreme volatility. Playing inside a domed stadium eliminates weather-related variables, providing stable conditions for consistent offensive output. This stack’s combination of core hitters like Julio Rodriguez and Jorge Polanco against favorable pitching matchups enhances its upside while maintaining manageable ownership levels for tournament play.

MIL 5-Man ($21,400)

Brice Turang, Jackson Chourio, William Contreras, Christian Yelich, Rhys Hoskins

The MIL stack offers solid value at 2.00 points per $1000 with a total salary of $21,400, fitting well within typical DFS budget constraints. Despite a moderate average ownership of 20.6%, the optimal lineup rate is slightly lower at 16.9%, indicating potential leverage in tournament play. The game total sits at a reasonable 9.0 runs, suggesting balanced scoring expectations. However, weather conditions introduce some risk: a 67% chance of rain with temperatures around 53°F and a 13 MPH wind blowing right to left in Pittsburgh could suppress offensive output or cause delays, which should be factored into lineup decisions. Overall, the stack’s value is supported by its affordability and ownership profile but tempered by uncertain weather impacting the environment for run production.

SP Plays

Top Play: Jack Flaherty ($8,300)

Jack Flaherty offers solid upside at $8,300 in a favorable matchup against the Indians. After snapping a five-start losing streak with a quality outing last time out, he looks to build momentum facing a lineup that’s below league average in strikeout rate versus right-handed pitching. His recent strikeout rates remain respectable, and the implied run environment here should keep his floor reasonable. Flaherty’s ability to rack up Ks while limiting damage is key given the Tigers’ mid-tier bullpen and ballpark factors.

Ownership is high at 53.4%, reflecting confidence in his bounce-back potential and matchup. While some may shy away due to inconsistent results earlier this season, his 2.0x value and 36.8% optimal lineup presence suggest he’s fairly priced for tournaments. This chalk play fits well in lineups targeting balanced risk-reward, especially if you expect Flaherty to pitch deep enough into the game to maximize strikeout opportunities without giving up too many runs.

Honorable Mentions

• Tanner Bibee ($7,800)
• George Kirby ($8,800)

C Plays

Top Play: William Contreras ($4,500)

William Contreras offers strong value at $4,500 as the Brewers’ primary catcher batting third against the Pirates. His solid spot in the lineup ensures plenty of plate appearances in a favorable run environment, with Milwaukee expected to score multiple runs at PNC Park. Contreras is a right-handed hitter facing a right-handed pitcher, and while his power upside is moderate, he contributes consistently through contact and speed, adding stolen base potential that boosts his floor.

Despite high ownership at 27%, his 1.99x value and presence in 17% of optimal lineups justify this chalk status. The Pirates’ pitching staff has struggled recently, particularly to middle-of-the-order hitters like Contreras who can drive in runs and create scoring opportunities. Given the affordable salary and opportunity for multi-category contributions, he fits well as a core piece in tournaments looking to balance upside with salary savings.

Honorable Mentions

• Cal Raleigh ($5,600)
• Drake Baldwin ($4,000)

1B Plays

Top Play: Matt Olson ($4,900)

Matt Olson remains a strong DFS target at $4,900, especially given his recent power surge. He’s recorded three home runs and five RBIs over his last four games while hitting .250/.315/.531 in May. Batting third in Atlanta’s lineup ensures plenty of plate appearances in a solid run-scoring environment, and the Braves’ implied total against Washington provides good upside. Olson’s left-handed bat also matches well against right-handed pitching, which typically benefits power hitters like him.

Despite a high ownership projection near 29%, this chalk looks justified considering his 1.9x value and consistent production. He appears in nearly one-fifth of optimal lineups, reflecting his blend of floor and ceiling at first base. The matchup against Washington isn’t overly favorable for offense overall, but Olson’s recent form and lineup spot make him one of the safer premium value plays on this slate.

Honorable Mentions

• Rhys Hoskins ($4,000)
• Spencer Horwitz ($2,200)

2B Plays

Top Play: Brice Turang ($4,400)

Brice Turang slots in at the top of the Brewers’ lineup as a left-handed bat facing a Pirates pitching staff that has allowed a .330 wOBA to lefties this season. His speed on the bases adds upside, with 11 steals in 14 attempts, and he’s shown consistent ability to get on base, slashing .288/.365/.365. The road environment in Pittsburgh is neutral for hitters, so Turang’s value will come mostly from his high-contact approach and baserunning rather than power.

At $4,400, Turang offers strong value with nearly 2x salary multiplier potential and ranks highly in GPPs. His moderate ownership around 21.5% aligns with his profile as a balanced play who can contribute across multiple categories. The Brewers’ implied team total isn’t elite but enough to generate scoring opportunities at the top of the order. Overall, Turang makes sense as a tournament option where his combination of speed and contact can differentiate lineups without pushing salary too high.

Honorable Mentions

• Ozzie Albies ($4,200)
• Jorge Polanco ($4,800)

3B Plays

Top Play: Austin Riley ($4,600)

Austin Riley offers strong value at $4,600 in a favorable matchup against Washington. Batting second in the Braves’ lineup ensures consistent plate appearances, and he’s shown steady production with a .300/.355/.429 slash in May. While he hasn’t hit a homer recently, his overall contact and run-scoring ability remain solid assets. The Nationals’ pitching staff has struggled to contain right-handed power hitters this season, making Riley’s matchup appealing from both a floor and upside perspective.

His 35.6% ownership is on the higher side but justified given his top tournament rank and near 2x value projection. Playing in a moderately hitter-friendly park with an implied team total around league average keeps him relevant without pushing salary too high elsewhere. For tournaments, he fits well as a core piece where you want exposure to Atlanta’s offense while balancing risk across your lineup.

Honorable Mentions

• Isaac Paredes ($4,000)
• Ke’Bryan Hayes ($3,100)

SS Plays

Top Play: J.P. Crawford ($3,600)

J.P. Crawford is a solid value play at $3,600, hitting leadoff for Seattle in a matchup against Houston’s right-handed pitching. He’s a lefty batter who benefits from the Astros’ bullpen-heavy approach, which tends to allow decent on-base rates to lefties. Crawford’s .385 OBP and ability to generate runs from the top of the lineup give him steady scoring chances, especially with Seattle implied for a moderately competitive run total.

His 21.6% ownership is slightly elevated but justified given his consistent production and affordable price point. Crawford also provides upside through speed and occasional power, making him a balanced option in tournaments. With an optimal lineup appearance near 18%, he fits well as a contrarian piece who still has reliable floor thanks to his role and recent performance trends.

Honorable Mentions

• CJ Abrams ($5,400)
• Joey Ortiz ($2,400)

OF Plays

Top Play: Marcell Ozuna ($4,400)

Marcell Ozuna offers strong value at $4,400 with a 1.93x value multiplier and ranks third in tournament builds. Batting cleanup for the Braves, he’s in a solid spot to rack up plate appearances against Washington’s pitching staff, which has struggled with right-handed power this season. Ozuna’s recent power surge is notable—he’s hit multiple homers in back-to-back games and has five extra-base hits over his last 10 contests, backing up his .420 OBP this year with legitimate pop.

The matchup at Washington provides a decent run environment, and while Ozuna isn’t the flashiest option, his combination of lineup position and recent production justifies his moderate ownership near 20%. His price allows you to fit in other premium bats without sacrificing upside. Given the implied team total and steady RBI opportunities batting fourth, Ozuna is a strong middle-tier DFS target who can deliver solid points without requiring chalk-level exposure.

Honorable Mentions

• Jackson Chourio ($4,300)
• Christian Yelich ($4,200)

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