FREE 06/09 MLB Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

We’ve got a 9-game slate on tap tonight, and the first thing we’re looking at is that MIA/PIT game, which is currently carrying an 81% chance of rain and looks like a stay-away. The CIN/CLE matchup could see a slight boost from winds blowing out, contributing to its 9-run total, while the TB/BOS game at Fenway might be suppressed by winds blowing in. The ATL/MIL and SEA/ARI matchups are unaffected by weather, as they are in domed stadiums.

The OAK/LAA and CIN/CLE games are tied with the highest totals at 9 runs, suggesting some potential for offense. Keep an eye on the wind conditions in Boston and Philadelphia, where the wind is expected to blow in, potentially suppressing scoring in those contests. The Blue Jays-Cardinals game also presents some offensive intrigue with a total of 8.5.

Top Stacks

ATL 5-Man ($23,800)

Ronald Acuna Jr., Drake Baldwin, Austin Riley, Matt Olson, Marcell Ozuna

Atlanta presents a compelling stack today, offering solid value at 1.86 points per thousand. While their total salary comes in at $23,800, the low 7.8% average ownership suggests they are being overlooked despite an 8.8% optimal rate, indicating significant upside relative to their popularity. Playing in a domed stadium eliminates weather concerns, allowing us to confidently project their offensive output in a potentially undervalued spot.

TOR 5-Man ($19,400)

Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Addison Barger, Alejandro Kirk, George Springer

The Toronto stack, headlined by Bichette and Guerrero, presents solid value at 2.10 points per thousand, and that’s where the appeal lies. Despite the 8.5 game total, ownership is surprisingly moderate at 9%, aligning closely with their 8.8% optimal rate. This suggests they are being slightly overlooked. With clear skies, warm temperatures, and a slight breeze out to left, the conditions in St. Louis are conducive to offense, further bolstering the stack’s potential, especially given the implied run environment.

ARI 5-Man ($25,000)

Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, Geraldo Perdomo, Josh Naylor, Eugenio Suarez

The Arizona stack, headlined by Carroll and Marte, presents a solid value at 1.88 points per $1000, especially considering the 9.5 game total. While their 8.2% optimal rate suggests upside, the 11.4% average ownership indicates they are slightly more popular than their pure win rate would suggest. In a domed stadium, we don’t have to worry about weather affecting the game. If the Diamondbacks’ bats can capitalize on this matchup, this stack could still be a valuable differentiator.

SP Plays

Top Play: Chris Sale ($10,000)

Chris Sale continues to demonstrate elite strikeout upside, averaging over 10 K/9 in his last start against Arizona and consistently delivering quality outings. He’s pitched at least 5.2 innings in each of his last 5 starts, providing a solid floor, while his recent performances against tough lineups like Philadelphia and San Diego showcase his ability to limit runs. His $10,000 price tag represents strong value with a projected 2.1x return.

Sale faces the Brewers in Milwaukee, a matchup that provides a favorable combination of strikeout potential and run suppression. Milwaukee’s lineup has a tendency to strike out, and Sale’s ability to induce weak contact further enhances his potential for a dominant performance. While his ownership is projected to be high at 45.6%, his optimal percentage of 23.8% suggests he’s worth the investment in tournaments due to his high ceiling.

Honorable Mentions

• Zack Wheeler ($10,500)
• Luis Ortiz ($7,500)

C Plays

Top Play: Alejandro Kirk ($3,100)

Alejandro Kirk bats cleanup for Toronto and offers excellent value at $3100 against the Cardinals. He consistently finds ways to contribute, demonstrated by his recent 3-hit game against Philadelphia where he scored 13 DK points. Kirk’s ability to drive in runs from the heart of the order makes him a reliable fantasy producer.

Kirk’s moderate 10.6% ownership suggests he’s being slightly overlooked, despite appearing in 7.8% of optimal lineups. His 2.36x value rating highlights his potential to significantly outperform his salary, especially in a matchup where he’s expected to see favorable hitting conditions. He’s a top tournament option at catcher.

Honorable Mentions

• David Fry ($3,100)
• Agustin Ramirez ($4,000)

1B Plays

Top Play: Christian Encarnacion-Strand ($3,000)

Christian Encarnacion-Strand is swinging a hot bat, hitting three home runs in his last three games against Arizona, and averaging 21.3 DK points per game in that span. He bats cleanup for Cincinnati, providing ample RBI opportunities, and his $3000 price tag opens up significant roster flexibility.

Tonight, Encarnacion-Strand faces Cleveland, and his low 4.85% projected ownership makes him an excellent tournament play. He appears in nearly 9% of optimal lineups, highlighting his upside, and his 2.36x value rating suggests he’s poised to exceed salary expectations.

Honorable Mentions

• David Fry ($3,100)
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($4,600)

2B Plays

Top Play: Chris Taylor ($2,200)

Chris Taylor provides excellent salary relief at $2200, hitting 5th today against ATH. He’s exceeded value with a 2.67x production rate, and his recent performance indicates upside with two multi-hit games in the past week, including a home run and stolen base. His dual eligibility at 2B/OF offers lineup flexibility as well.

Taylor is projected for a solid optimal lineup appearance rate of 7.7%, while his ownership sits around 7.9%. This suggests he’s slightly under-owned relative to his potential, making him a strong tournament play with the opportunity to differentiate your lineup. The Angels’ lineup offers run-producing opportunities, and Taylor’s spot in the order should give him ample chances to contribute.

Honorable Mentions

• Davis Schneider ($2,500)
• Nolan Gorman ($2,800)

3B Plays

Top Play: Austin Riley ($4,700)

Austin Riley provides a solid power bat in the heart of the Braves’ lineup, hitting 3rd and consistently seeing premium RBI opportunities. He’s shown flashes of his upside recently, including a 21-point DK performance on June 5th with a home run and two RBI. His two-hit performances in the two games prior to that show that he is seeing the ball well.

Riley faces a favorable matchup against the Brewers, and his $4700 salary represents strong value at 1.9x, making him an attractive option for tournaments. He’s projected to be in over 11% of optimal lineups while only being 10% owned, giving you a slight edge against the field if he has a big game.

Honorable Mentions

• Jose Ramirez ($5,400)
• Nolan Gorman ($2,800)

SS Plays

Top Play: Bo Bichette ($4,100)

Bichette bats leadoff for the Blue Jays and offers significant upside at $4100. He’s projected for strong value at 2.1x and appears in over 10% of optimal lineups, indicating his potential to deliver a high fantasy score. His placement at the top of the order maximizes his plate appearances, giving him ample opportunity to score runs and drive in teammates.

Bichette faces a favorable matchup against the Cardinals, where he can capitalize on his hitting ability. Despite a couple of recent quiet games, he showed his power potential on June 5th with a home run and 19 DK points. His moderate ownership (10.8%) suggests he’s a smart contrarian play with the potential to outperform his salary.

Honorable Mentions

• Jorge Polanco ($4,200)
• J.P. Crawford ($3,600)

OF Plays

Top Play: Corbin Carroll ($5,600)

Corbin Carroll bats leadoff and provides significant upside at his $5600 price point. He offers strong value at 2.1x and is projected for a high optimal percentage (16.7%), indicating his potential to be a key contributor to winning lineups. His spot at the top of the order maximizes his plate appearances, and his speed always makes him a threat to steal a base.

Carroll faces the Mariners today, and his left-handed bat gives him the platoon advantage. He’s a top-2 tournament play and his recent game logs show flashes of his potential. While his ownership is high (18.7%), his ability to rack up runs and contribute across multiple categories makes him worth the investment.

Honorable Mentions

• Lane Thomas ($3,000)
• Brent Rooker ($4,700)

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