FREE 06/16 MLB Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

We’ve got a smaller 7-game slate on tap tonight, and right off the bat, the Astros-Athletics game in Oakland stands out with a slate-high total of 10 runs. The Padres-Dodgers matchup also carries a decent 9-run total and favorable hitting conditions, with winds blowing out in Los Angeles. Pay close attention to the weather in the COL @ WSH and LAA @ NYY games, as the wind blowing in could affect overall offensive output.

The big weather concern is clearly in Tampa, where the Orioles-Rays game carries a significant risk of delay or even a rainout. Given the 42% chance of precipitation, it’s crucial to monitor updates closer to lock and have a contingency plan in place. The wind blowing out in Tampa, if the game plays, could give a slight boost to power.

Top Stacks

HOU 5-Man ($18,300)

Jeremy Pena, Yainer Diaz, Jose Altuve, Christian Walker, Victor Caratini

This Houston stack presents intriguing upside at its current price. While the 2.3x value isn’t elite, the projected 16.3% ownership for a lineup with a 10.6% optimal rate suggests it’s being slightly underutilized. The significant 10.0 game total, coupled with favorable hitting weather, gives Houston a high ceiling. Given this context, I’m willing to gamble on the Astros’ bats outperforming their expected ownership on this slate.

ATH 5-Man ($22,300)

Lawrence Butler, Jacob Wilson, Brent Rooker, Tyler Soderstrom, Max Muncy

The Athletics stack, headlined by Butler, Wilson, and Rooker, offers intriguing leverage at just under 8% projected ownership. While their 1.88 points per thousand in salary isn’t elite, it’s solid, and the nearly 10% optimal rate suggests they are popping in simulations. The low ownership combined with a high optimal rate makes this an interesting leverage play.

BAL 5-Man ($21,900)

Jackson Holliday, Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg, Ryan O’Hearn

The Orioles stack, priced at $21,900, presents solid value at 1.84 points per thousand, especially considering their sub-8% average ownership. While their optimal rate hovers just under 10%, the leverage here is undeniable. With a game total of 8.5 and a slight breeze blowing out in Tampa, conditions are favorable for offense. This stack is likely being overlooked due to the weather concerns, creating a contrarian angle on a team poised to produce.

SP Plays

Top Play: Clarke Schmidt ($8,700)

Clarke Schmidt is pitching well, allowing 0 ER in two of his last three starts. He’s coming off a 7-strikeout performance and gets a juicy rematch against the Angels, a team he just held scoreless. Schmidt’s ability to limit damage makes him a reliable option tonight.

The Angels’ offense continues to struggle, and Schmidt is in a prime position to capitalize. His $8700 salary provides strong value, and he appears in a high percentage of optimal lineups. Despite the high projected ownership, Schmidt’s upside is too good to pass up in this favorable matchup.

Honorable Mentions

• Logan Gilbert ($9,700)
• Jake Irvin ($8,100)

C Plays

Top Play: Yainer Diaz ($3,300)

Yainer Diaz bats second for Houston tonight, putting him in a prime position to drive in runs. He’s shown flashes of power recently, including a home run on June 14th, and is coming off a stretch of games where he’s consistently getting on base, with multiple hits in several contests. At $3300, Diaz provides strong value against an Athletics pitching staff that struggles to contain right-handed bats.

Diaz’s high optimal percentage (10.24%) indicates he’s a key piece in many top-projected lineups, and his expected ownership of 15.7% shows the field recognizes his potential. He offers excellent leverage given his reasonable salary and the favorable matchup, making him a top tournament play at the catcher position.

Honorable Mentions

• Victor Caratini ($2,900)
• Adley Rutschman ($4,000)

1B Plays

Top Play: Christian Walker ($3,700)

Christian Walker offers significant upside at this price point, projected for 2.35x value. He bats cleanup for HOU, placing him in a prime RBI position, and his tournament rank is #1 overall. He’s also featured in over 10% of optimal lineups, demonstrating his potential for a high-scoring performance.

Walker faces a favorable matchup @ ATH, where his right-handed power plays well. Despite a couple of recent quiet games, he demonstrated his ceiling on June 11th with a 28-point DraftKings performance, including a home run and 4 RBIs. At a moderate 14% projected ownership, he provides differentiation without being contrarian.

Honorable Mentions

• Shohei Ohtani ($6,300)
• Alec Bohm ($3,800)

2B Plays

Top Play: Jose Altuve ($3,900)

Jose Altuve hits in the heart of the Houston lineup and gets a favorable matchup against Oakland. Altuve is projected to bat 3rd, maximizing his opportunities for run production, and his $3900 price tag represents a strong value at 2.2x. He’s shown the ability to deliver big fantasy performances, as evidenced by his two 23-point DraftKings outings over the past week.

Altuve is a top tournament play with an optimal lineup appearance of 12.5%, and his right-handed bat is well-positioned to exploit any weaknesses in the Athletics’ pitching. While he is expected to be highly owned at 20.6%, his upside justifies the popularity, and he remains a priority target for GPP contests.

Honorable Mentions

• Xavier Edwards ($4,100)
• Jackson Holliday ($4,300)

3B Plays

Top Play: Alec Bohm ($3,800)

Alec Bohm is locked in, demonstrated by his recent 27-point DK performance that included a home run and 3 RBI. Hitting 3rd in the Phillies lineup, he’s in a prime run-producing spot, and his $3800 price tag provides excellent salary relief with a 1.96x value. He’s been consistently delivering solid offensive output, with multiple multi-hit games in the past week.

Bohm faces a favorable matchup against the Marlins, offering a great opportunity to exceed value. His optimal lineup appearance rate is a strong 10.2%, and his projected ownership is only 8.8%, making him a slightly under-owned option with significant upside. He’s a key piece to unlock a high-ceiling Phillies stack.

Honorable Mentions

• Ryan McMahon ($3,500)
• Manny Machado ($5,400)

SS Plays

Top Play: Xavier Edwards ($4,100)

Xavier Edwards bats leadoff and offers strong value at his $4100 price point. He’s projected to appear in almost 15% of optimal lineups, indicating significant upside for his salary. Edwards is a left-handed batter who has shown flashes of brilliance recently, including a 3-hit, 15-DK point performance just a few games ago.

Edwards faces the Phillies today, and his position atop the Marlins’ lineup guarantees maximum plate appearances. While his ownership is slightly above the field average, his potential to exceed value is considerable, making him a strong tournament play at 1.99x value.

Honorable Mentions

• Jeremy Pena ($4,500)
• Xander Bogaerts ($3,100)

OF Plays

Top Play: Fernando Tatis Jr. ($4,900)

Fernando Tatis Jr. is hitting leadoff for the Padres and brings a potent combination of speed and power to the top of the order. He’s fresh off a 4-hit performance that included 3 runs and a steal, showcasing his ability to contribute across multiple stat categories. At his $4900 price point, he provides excellent value with a projected 2.1x return, making him a top tournament option.

Tatis faces the Dodgers today in a matchup where he can exploit his considerable upside. He’s projected for high ownership (17.6%), indicating confidence from other DFS players, and appears in 15.5% of optimal lineups. His recent production, combined with his prime lineup spot, makes him a strong candidate to exceed value.

Honorable Mentions

• Brent Rooker ($4,900)
• Alex Call ($3,700)

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