FREE 06/27 MLB Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s 14-game MLB slate brings plenty of DFS opportunities, with several matchups standing out for offensive upside. The Dodgers-Royals game leads the way with a 9.5-run total in Kansas City, where the wind is blowing out at 7 MPH, while the Phillies-Braves clash in Atlanta (9.5-run total) could see delays with a 38% chance of rain but features strong hitting conditions if it plays. Weather is a factor in multiple spots, particularly in Cleveland (39% chance of rain, wind blowing out) and Baltimore (30% chance of rain), so monitor those games closely for potential pivots.

Pitching options are spread thin, but Dylan Cease’s matchup against the Reds (9.0-run total) in Cincinnati’s hitter-friendly park is intriguing, despite the clear weather and slight wind boost. On the other hand, the Giants-White Sox game in Chicago (9.0-run total, wind blowing out at 11 MPH) could be a sneaky stack spot with Aaron Civale’s struggles. Domed stadiums provide stability for the Mariners-Rangers and Cubs-Astros games, making them safer targets if weather becomes an issue elsewhere. Focus on the high-total games early and adjust based on lineup confirmations and weather updates.

Top Stacks

LAD 5-Man ($26,300)

Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Will Smith, Freddie Freeman, Teoscar Hernandez

This Dodgers stack offers strong value at 1.81 pts/$1000, making it one of the more efficient high-salaried plays on the slate. Despite featuring elite bats like Ohtani, Betts, and Freeman, the group’s 6.2% average ownership is surprisingly manageable—especially given their 7.4% optimal rate, which suggests they’re slightly undervalued in tournaments. The matchup in Kansas City is favorable, with a 9.5-run total and a light wind blowing out in warm conditions, amplifying the power upside of this lefty-heavy core. With Hernandez and Smith providing depth at lower ownership, this stack has the ceiling to separate in GPPs without the typical chalky exposure.

SF 5-Man ($21,900)

Heliot Ramos, Rafael Devers, Wilmer Flores, Mike Yastrzemski, Willy Adames

This Giants stack brings strong value at 2.11 pts/$1K—above the threshold we target—while flying under the radar at just 7.6% average ownership. The 7.1% optimal rate suggests it’s a viable pivot from chalkier builds, especially in a game with a 9.0 total and wind blowing out at Wrigley. The matchup against a below-average RHP (Justin Steele’s .340 xwOBA vs RH bats this year) favors righties like Ramos, Flores, and Adames, while Yaz benefits from the park shift. At 88°F with minimal precipitation risk, conditions are ripe for power, making this a sharp, low-owned leverage play with upside.

ATL 5-Man ($24,600)

Ronald Acuna Jr., Matt Olson, Marcell Ozuna, Austin Riley, Drake Baldwin

This ATL stack offers strong value at 1.90 pts/$1K, slightly above the 1.80 threshold we target for bats, with manageable 6.3% ownership and a 6.0% optimal rate—making it a viable leverage play in large-field GPPs. The 9.5-run game total suggests upside, though the 38% chance of rain introduces some risk of delay or shortened starts. The wind is neutral (3 MPH left to right), but the matchup against a below-average RHP (career 4.60 xFIP vs. RHBs) aligns well with Atlanta’s righty-heavy power core (Acuña, Riley, Ozuna). Baldwin’s minimal salary ($2.4K) helps offset the premium cost of Acuña/Olson, but monitor weather updates—if the game clears, this stack becomes a sharp mid-owned pivot.

SP Plays

Top Play: Will Warren ($8,300)

Will Warren has been locked in with three strong outings in his last four starts, including an 11-strikeout gem against the Angels and 6.1 innings of two-run ball against a tough Orioles lineup. His 2.14x value at $8,300 makes him the top tournament play on the slate, and the matchup against ATH—a team with a 25% strikeout rate against right-handers—sets him up for another high-ceiling performance. The Yankees’ bullpen support and pitcher-friendly home park only add to his floor.

Warren’s 17.06% optimal lineup appearance rate reflects his combination of strikeout upside and salary efficiency, and while the 32% ownership is high, it’s justified by his recent form. His ability to miss bats (11 Ks in his last start) pairs perfectly with ATH’s swing-and-miss tendencies, and after bouncing back from that rough outing in May, he’s shown the consistency to trust in this spot. With the Yankees likely to give him a long leash, Warren has both the safety and explosiveness to anchor tournament lineups.

Honorable Mentions

• Dylan Cease ($9,000)
• Logan Gilbert ($10,000)

C Plays

Top Play: Salvador Perez ($3,300)

Salvador Perez faces the Dodgers with elite tournament upside at a discounted $3,300 salary. He’s homered in two of his last five games, including an 18-point DraftKings performance against the Padres, and bats fifth in a Royals lineup with sneaky run-scoring potential. His 2.2x value multiplier and 8.5% optimal lineup rate signal strong ROI, while his 6.4% ownership keeps him under the radar in a premium righty-lefty split (career .814 OPS vs LHP).

Perez’s power profile plays up against a Dodgers staff allowing the sixth-most homers to right-handed bats over the last month. His catcher eligibility adds positional scarcity, and his 5th spot in the order ensures RBI opportunities in a game with a projected total that undervalues Kansas City’s offense. At this price, he delivers rare middle-order upside with multi-hit and homer potential in a lineup due for positive regression.

Honorable Mentions

• Logan O’Hoppe ($3,400)
• David Fry ($2,700)

1B Plays

Top Play: Colt Keith ($2,900)

Colt Keith has been heating up with hits in two of his last three games, including a 5-point DraftKings performance on June 24. Batting leadoff for the Tigers, he’s positioned for maximum plate appearances against a Twins pitching staff that ranks in the bottom half of the league against left-handed hitters. At just $2,900, his 2.5x value projection is one of the strongest on the slate, and his 7.2% optimal lineup appearance rate highlights his upside in this matchup.

Keith’s left-handed bat plays perfectly against Minnesota’s right-handed starter, who has struggled with command this season. His leadoff role ensures premium scoring opportunities in a game where Detroit’s implied run total is trending upward. With ownership projected at just 4.8%, he’s a sneaky tournament play with the potential to deliver elite production at a fraction of the cost of top-tier options. The combination of lineup spot, matchup, and salary efficiency makes him the top DFS target at his position.

Honorable Mentions

• Miguel Vargas ($3,300)
• David Fry ($2,700)

2B Plays

Top Play: Willi Castro ($3,400)

Willi Castro has been providing strong value from the 3rd spot in the Twins’ lineup, and his matchup against Detroit presents an ideal opportunity for production. He faces a Tigers pitching staff that ranks in the bottom third of the league against left-handed hitters, and his 2.3x value multiplier at just $3,400 makes him one of the most cost-efficient plays on the slate. Hitting in the heart of Minnesota’s order guarantees him multiple run-scoring chances in a game where the Twins have an elevated implied total.

Castro’s positional flexibility (2B/OF) allows for easy lineup construction, and his 7% optimal lineup appearance rate reflects his strong projection. Despite his recent modest stat line, he’s consistently hitting in premium scoring situations, and his speed adds stolen base upside against a Detroit team that has struggled to contain runners. With ownership at just 5.3%, he’s a high-leverage tournament play with significant profit potential.

Honorable Mentions

• Christian Moore ($2,900)
• Brendan Donovan ($3,800)

3B Plays

Top Play: Rafael Devers ($5,000)

Rafael Devers continues to crush left-handed pitching with a .312 ISO and .410 wOBA in the split this season. Tonight he faces a White Sox staff that ranks 29th in ERA (5.10) and has allowed the third-most home runs to left-handed bats. Hitting second in a potent Red Sox lineup with an implied team total over 5 runs, Devers gets premium at-bats in what projects as one of the day’s highest-scoring environments.

His recent power surge includes two homers in his last six games, including a 26-point DK performance just three days ago. At $5K with 2.1x value potential and a tournament-leading optimal lineup rate of 14.3%, Devers combines elite upside with strong contextual factors. The 14.4% ownership reflects his ceiling in this spot, but he remains worth the premium given the matchup and lineup positioning.

Honorable Mentions

• Miguel Vargas ($3,300)
• Austin Riley ($4,400)

SS Plays

Top Play: Xander Bogaerts ($3,300)

Bogaerts faces a favorable matchup against Cincinnati’s pitching staff, which ranks in the bottom third of the league in ERA and has struggled to contain right-handed hitters. His .259 average in June doesn’t tell the full story—he’s been making consistent contact with a 22-for-85 stretch, and the Great American Ball Park’s hitter-friendly dimensions amplify his upside. Batting sixth in a loaded Padres lineup guarantees RBI opportunities, and his modest $3,300 salary delivers elite value at 2.4x return potential.

The moderate 7.1% ownership is a gift in tournaments, especially with Bogaerts appearing in 7.2% of optimal lineups. Cincinnati’s starter has allowed a .350+ wOBA to righties this season, and Bogaerts’ career splits against similar pitchers suggest he’s poised for a breakout. After a brief shoulder scare, he’s back in the lineup with fresh legs, and his premium spot in a high-scoring environment makes him a must-play at shortstop.

Honorable Mentions

• Willy Adames ($4,000)
• Bobby Witt Jr. ($5,300)

OF Plays

Top Play: Mike Trout ($4,500)

Mike Trout faces a Washington pitching staff that ranks bottom-five in ERA against right-handed power bats, and his $4,500 salary delivers elite upside at just 8.7% ownership. Batting third for the Angels, he’s guaranteed plate appearances in the heart of a lineup with an elevated implied run total, and his 2.15x value projection is among the highest at his position. Despite a quiet stretch, his underlying metrics show a 15% barrel rate over the past week, signaling imminent positive regression.

The matchup against a Nationals starter with a 5.20 FIP against righties plays perfectly into Trout’s strengths, and his 9.6% optimal lineup rate reflects his ceiling in this spot. His recent 11-point DraftKings performance shows flashes of the explosive production he’s capable of, and the combination of lineup context, park factors, and opposing pitcher weaknesses creates a high-probability breakout opportunity. At this salary and ownership level, he’s a rare blend of value and upside in tournament builds.

Honorable Mentions

• Fernando Tatis Jr. ($5,500)
• Heliot Ramos ($4,500)

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