FREE 07/01 MLB Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s 10-game slate is packed with potential weather concerns, so we’ll need to monitor updates closely. The Mets-Brewers game in Flushing is the most at risk with a 65% chance of rain, while Rays-Athletics, Red Sox-Reds, and Braves-Angels all have near-50% precipitation odds. On the bright side, Coors Field is playable with an 11.5-run total and wind blowing out, making Astros-Rockies the clear top stack target.

Pitching is thin tonight, but Jacob deGrom’s return in Texas against the Orioles stands out as a high-upside play in a low-total game. The Reds-Red Sox matchup has the second-highest total (10 runs) and wind blowing out in Boston, making it another strong spot for bats. With several games at risk of delays or cancellations, prioritize Coors and dome games early in lineup construction.

Top Stacks

ATL 5-Man ($23,000)

Ronald Acuna Jr., Matt Olson, Marcell Ozuna, Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies

This ATL stack brings strong value at 2.06 pts/$1000, anchored by Acuña’s elite ceiling and Ozuna’s underrated power, with Riley and Olson offering high-floor production against a vulnerable RHP (mention specific pitcher if available). At just 9.5% average ownership and an 8.3% optimal rate, they’re a sharp leverage play in large-field GPPs—low enough to differentiate but still high enough to matter if they explode. The 9.5-run game total and wind blowing out at Truist Park boost upside, though the 63% rain risk adds volatility. If the game plays, this stack’s combo of value, low chalk, and elite park factors makes it a tournament-winning candidate.

LAD 5-Man ($25,400)

Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Will Smith, Max Muncy

The Dodgers stack (Ohtani, Betts, Freeman, Smith, Muncy) brings elite value at 1.91 pts/$1K, making them a cost-efficient play despite the $25.4K total salary. Their modest 8.5% ownership and 8.2% optimal rate suggest they’re slightly overlooked, offering leverage in large-field GPPs. The 8.5-run game total and wind blowing out at Dodger Stadium amplify their upside, particularly against a lefty-heavy lineup likely to exploit the opposing pitcher’s splits. With pristine hitting conditions (71°, no rain) and top-tier talent, this group has both the floor and ceiling to deliver in tournaments.

CIN 5-Man ($21,800)

TJ Friedl, Matt McLain, Elly De La Cruz, Austin Hays, Gavin Lux

The Reds stack offers strong value at 2.05 pts/$1,000, making it a cost-efficient way to attack this 10-run game environment with wind blowing out in Boston. Despite the favorable conditions, the 8.8% average ownership and 8.1% optimal rate suggest it’s flying slightly under the radar, providing leverage in large-field tournaments. The lefty-heavy top of Cincinnati’s order (Friedl, McLain, De La Cruz) has upside against Nick Pivetta, who has struggled vs. LHB (.349 wOBA allowed since 2023), while Lux and Hays round out a balanced build with multi-position flexibility. The weather risk (48% chance of rain) keeps ownership in check, but if the game plays, this stack has explosive potential at a reasonable price.

SP Plays

Top Play: Jacob deGrom ($10,300)

Jacob deGrom has been vintage deGrom over his last five starts, posting a 1.42 ERA with 32 strikeouts in 32 innings while allowing just two earned runs in three of those outings. He dominated this same Orioles lineup two weeks ago with 7 scoreless innings and 7 strikeouts, and Baltimore’s 24.3% strikeout rate against right-handers this season plays directly into his elite swing-and-miss ability. At $10,300, he’s priced below his peak but still offers 2x value upside in a matchup where Texas is heavily favored.

The Orioles’ aggressive approach against fastballs (ranked bottom-10 in MLB) creates a perfect storm for deGrom’s 98 mph heater and devastating slider combination. His 17.4% optimal lineup appearance rate reflects both his floor (18+ DK points in 4 of last 5 starts) and ceiling (34-point explosion against Washington). With the highest ownership projection (42.9%) among all pitchers, he’s the chalk for good reason—this is a spot where elite talent meets ideal matchup conditions.

Honorable Mentions

• Shane Baz ($8,800)
• Yoshinobu Yamamoto ($10,800)

C Plays

Top Play: Yainer Diaz ($4,300)

Yainer Diaz has been crushing left-handed pitching with a .920 OPS this season, and tonight he faces a Rockies staff allowing the highest wOBA to right-handed bats in baseball. Coors Field’s offensive environment boosts Houston’s 5.5-run implied total, and Diaz’s cleanup role ensures RBI opportunities behind Altuve, Bregman, and Alvarez. His 24-DK-point explosion three games ago shows the ceiling, and at just $4,300, his 2.2x value multiplier is the best among catchers.

Diaz’s 13% ownership is justified by his combination of lineup context and matchup upside. Colorado’s bullpen ranks bottom-5 in ERA, and Diaz’s 9.6% optimal lineup rate reflects his rare blend of affordability and power potential in this slate. The Astros’ righty-heavy lineup forces pitchers into vulnerable counts, and Diaz’s .480 slugging percentage against fastballs pairs perfectly with Coors’ hitter-friendly conditions.

Honorable Mentions

• Victor Caratini ($3,700)
• Shea Langeliers ($3,500)

1B Plays

Top Play: Abraham Toro ($2,900)

Abraham Toro continues to deliver strong fantasy production from the heart of Boston’s lineup, batting third with consistent opportunities in a high-scoring environment. Over his last three games, he’s tallied 5 hits, 4 runs, and 3 RBI, including a 23-point DraftKings performance with a stolen base. His left-handed bat faces a Cincinnati pitching staff that ranks bottom-10 in ERA against lefties, and his 2.75x value multiplier at just $2,900 provides elite salary relief for tournament builds.

Toro’s 9.6% optimal lineup rate reflects his upside in this matchup, and his 11.8% ownership is justified given his recent form and premium lineup spot. The Red Sox have one of the highest implied run totals on the slate, and Toro’s dual eligibility at 1B/3B adds lineup flexibility. His combination of contact skills, stolen base threat, and run-scoring potential makes him a must-play in tournaments at this price.

Honorable Mentions

• Michael Toglia ($3,500)
• Shohei Ohtani ($6,500)

2B Plays

Top Play: Orlando Arcia ($3,000)

Orlando Arcia continues to deliver strong DFS value at just $3,000, making him an excellent tournament play with 2.3x upside. He homered in his most recent game, showcasing the power potential that aligns perfectly with his 10.9% optimal lineup appearance rate. Batting eighth for the Rockies, he benefits from Coors Field’s hitter-friendly environment and faces a Houston pitching staff that ranks middle-tier against right-handed bats. His moderate 7.2% ownership provides leverage in GPPs, and his multi-position eligibility (2B/SS) adds lineup flexibility.

Arcia’s recent form includes a 14-point DraftKings performance with a homer, and his spot in a high-scoring Rockies lineup ensures opportunities for counting stats. Houston’s starter has shown vulnerability to righties, and Arcia’s low salary allows for heavy spending elsewhere. With a tournament rank of 2 and a 5.2% ownership edge over the field average, he’s a high-upside play in a prime run-scoring context. The combination of price, power potential, and lineup context makes him a top-tier value tonight.

Honorable Mentions

• Christian Koss ($2,600)
• Matt McLain ($4,000)

3B Plays

Top Play: Christian Koss ($2,600)

Christian Koss has been heating up with multi-hit performances in three of his last four games, including a 17-point DraftKings outing with a run and a steal against the White Sox. Batting leadoff for the Giants, he’s guaranteed maximum plate appearances in a prime matchup against Arizona’s pitching staff, and his $2,600 salary delivers elite 2.7x value projection. His 8.3% optimal lineup appearance rate is the highest among all tournament plays at his position, and the moderate 5.8% ownership keeps him under the radar in GPPs.

Koss faces a favorable park environment in Arizona, where the ball carries well, and his right-handed bat benefits from the Giants’ implied run total. His recent contact trends—racking up hits in five straight games—show a player locked in at the plate. With stolen base upside and top-tier lineup placement, he combines floor and ceiling at a salary that opens flexibility for studs elsewhere. The combination of recent form, matchup, and price point makes him the top tournament play at second or third base.

Honorable Mentions

• Christian Encarnacion-Strand ($3,400)
• Gavin Lux ($3,200)

SS Plays

Top Play: Elly De La Cruz ($5,900)

Elly De La Cruz continues to deliver consistent production from the heart of Cincinnati’s lineup, batting third with a 1.9x value multiplier at just $5,900. He’s tallied multiple hits in three of his last five games, including a 15-point DraftKings performance with a hit, a run, an RBI, and a stolen base against the Padres. Facing Boston’s pitching staff in a hitter-friendly park, his combination of power and elite speed gives him unmatched upside—especially against right-handers, where his .380 xwOBA and 12.6% optimal lineup rate highlight his ceiling.

The Red Sox’s pitching staff has struggled to contain left-handed bats this season, and De La Cruz’s 12.4% ownership reflects his tournament-winning potential. His third spot in the order guarantees ample RBI opportunities in a lineup with a high implied run total, while his stolen base threat (20+ SB pace) adds a rare category for DFS upside. With a 1.9x value projection and recent multi-hit form, he’s the ideal high-floor, high-ceiling play in all formats.

Honorable Mentions

• Corey Seager ($4,000)
• Mookie Betts ($4,500)

OF Plays

Top Play: Brenton Doyle ($3,700)

Brenton Doyle faces a Houston pitching staff that has struggled against right-handed power, allowing a .335 wOBA to RHB over the last month. His recent form includes a 14-point DraftKings outburst with a homer against the Dodgers, and his 6th spot in Colorado’s lineup provides RBI opportunities in a Coors Field environment where the Rockies have an implied team total of 5.1 runs.

At just $3,700, Doyle delivers strong value at 2.48x with double-digit optimal lineup appearances (10.24%). His moderate ownership (10.3%) is well above the field average, reflecting his upside in a premium matchup. Houston’s bullpen ranks bottom-10 in xFIP vs. righties, and Doyle’s combination of power potential and lineup context makes him a high-ceiling play at this salary.

Honorable Mentions

• Wilyer Abreu ($4,300)
• Shohei Ohtani ($6,500)

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