FREE 07/02 MLB Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s 10-game slate is packed with scoring potential, headlined by the Astros-Rockies matchup in Coors Field, where the 10.5-run total easily leads the board. The Yankees-Jays game in Toronto (9.0) and Reds-Red Sox in Fenway (9.5) also stand out as prime stacking spots, especially with an 11 MPH wind blowing out in Boston. Weather is mostly clean, though the Cubs-Guardians game in Chicago carries a slight 13% chance of rain, while the 8 MPH crosswind at Wrigley could slightly favor lefty power.

Pitching is thin tonight, but there’s some intrigue with Shota Imanaga facing a weak Cleveland lineup and Logan Gilbert in a cushy matchup against Kansas City. The Dodgers-White Sox game (9.5) is another target, with L.A. bats in a great spot against Sean Burke and a 10 MPH wind blowing out at Dodger Stadium. Domed stadiums remove weather concerns for Yankees-Jays, Orioles-Rangers, and Royals-Mariners, making them reliable options despite the lower total in Seattle.

Top Stacks

HOU 5-Man ($22,900)

Isaac Paredes, Jake Meyers, Jose Altuve, Cam Smith, Yainer Diaz

This Astros stack offers strong value at 2.32 pts/$1K, well above the slate average, with mid-range ownership (15.3%) and a solid 10.9% optimal rate—making it a sharp pivot from chalkier options. The 10.5-run total in Coors Field is the obvious catalyst, with the thin air and 11 MPH wind blowing out amplifying power upside against a vulnerable Rockies pitching staff. While the temperature (93°F) could slightly suppress fly balls, Houston’s elite contact skills (especially Altuve and Diaz) play well in this environment. At just $22.9K, this group provides salary flexibility without sacrificing ceiling in the night’s premier offensive spot.

NYY 5-Man ($23,400)

Paul Goldschmidt, Cody Bellinger, Aaron Judge, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Giancarlo Stanton

The Yankees stack offers strong value at 1.93 pts/$1000, making them a cost-efficient option at a modest 6.7% average ownership—well below their 8.7% optimal lineup rate, signaling underrated upside. The 9.0-run game total suggests a favorable offensive environment, and playing in a domed stadium eliminates weather concerns, ensuring conditions stay consistent. With power bats like Judge and Stanton, plus multi-position eligibility from Chisholm and Bellinger, this group has the blend of floor and ceiling to outperform their salary-based expectations, especially if they capitalize on a vulnerable opposing pitcher. Their lower ownership makes them a sharp leverage play in tournaments.

LAD 5-Man ($25,100)

Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Will Smith, Max Muncy

The Dodgers stack (Ohtani, Betts, Freeman, Smith, Muncy) offers elite value at 1.96 pts/$1000, making them one of the top-tier plays tonight despite the premium $25.1K salary. Their modest 10.7% average ownership and 8.0% optimal rate suggest they’re slightly overlooked in a slate with clear upside—especially with the 9.5-run game total and a 10 MPH wind blowing out at Dodger Stadium. Facing a below-average RHP (career 4.35 xFIP vs lefties), the heart of this lineup is primed to capitalize, particularly Muncy and Freeman in their platoon advantage. Weather won’t be a factor, and the late-night start could further suppress ownership. This is a high-ceiling, tournament-winning build.

SP Plays

Top Play: Logan Gilbert ($9,500)

Logan Gilbert faces a Royals lineup with a 23.6% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching, the sixth-highest in MLB. His 10-strikeout performance against Boston two starts ago shows his elite swing-and-miss upside, and Kansas City’s aggressive approach plays directly into his strengths. T-Mobile Park’s pitcher-friendly dimensions further elevate his floor, and Seattle’s bullpen—ranked top-10 in ERA—gives him strong win potential even if he doesn’t work deep.

Gilbert’s 2.23x value projection at $9,500 is the best among all pitchers tonight, and his 24% optimal lineup rate reflects this premium matchup. The Royals’ .293 wOBA vs. righties ranks bottom-10 in the league, and Gilbert’s 45.8% ownership is justified by his combination of strikeout upside and run suppression in a low-scoring environment. His recent 7-K outing against Texas proves he can still deliver quality starts even without pristine command.

Honorable Mentions

• Hunter Brown ($10,300)
• Shota Imanaga ($8,500)

C Plays

Top Play: Yainer Diaz ($4,300)

Yainer Diaz faces the Rockies at Coors Field, where the Astros have one of the highest implied team totals on the slate. His 5th spot in Houston’s lineup guarantees RBI opportunities behind Altuve, Bregman, and Alvarez, with Coors’ thin air amplifying his power upside against a Rockies pitching staff ranked 29th in ERA. Despite a quiet stretch, his 24-point explosion on June 27 shows the ceiling he brings at catcher—a position where even 2x value is a win, let alone his 2.37x projection.

Diaz’s right-handed bat plays perfectly in Coors, where righties have a .825 OPS this season, and his salary remains affordable at $4,300. The Rockies’ bullpen has a 5.02 ERA, so even if he doesn’t exploit the starter, late-game matchups favor continued production. With 10.3% optimal lineup inclusion and a 13.4% ownership rate that still leaves room for differentiation, Diaz combines elite context with underrated tournament leverage.

Honorable Mentions

• Victor Caratini ($3,700)
• Sean Murphy ($3,300)

1B Plays

Top Play: Christian Walker ($4,100)

Christian Walker continues to heat up with a 3-for-4 performance in Tuesday’s game against Colorado, marking his fourth three-hit game of the season. His matchup tonight at Coors Field, where the park factor dramatically boosts offensive production, amplifies his upside. Despite a down year by his standards, Walker’s $4,100 salary presents elite value at 2.46x, and his 6th spot in Houston’s lineup ensures opportunities in a game with a likely high run environment.

Walker faces a Rockies pitching staff that ranks among the worst in baseball, particularly against right-handed power. His 14.04% optimal lineup rate reflects his high-ceiling potential in this spot, and while his ownership is elevated at 15.6%, the combination of Coors Field and his recent contact trends justifies the popularity. With Houston’s implied run total among the highest on the slate, Walker’s ability to deliver extra-base hits in this ballpark makes him the top tournament play at first base.

Honorable Mentions

• Shohei Ohtani ($6,400)
• Miguel Vargas ($3,300)

2B Plays

Top Play: Jose Altuve ($5,200)

Jose Altuve continues to deliver elite production from the top of Houston’s lineup, batting third in a high-powered offense with an implied team total boosted by Coors Field’s hitter-friendly environment. His .290 ISO against right-handed pitching this season pairs perfectly with tonight’s matchup against a Rockies staff allowing the highest wOBA (.360) to right-handed bats at home. Despite a quiet game yesterday, his 16.0-point explosion two games ago reminds us of his ceiling, and his 13.9% optimal lineup rate reflects his consistency in this spot.

Altuve has posted a .385 wOBA over his last 15 games, and his 2.1x value multiplier at $5,200 is among the best at second base. The Rockies’ bullpen ranks bottom-5 in xFIP, ensuring Altuve gets opportunities all game, while his 16.5% ownership is justified given his combination of floor and upside. Hitting in the heart of Houston’s order at Coors, he’s positioned for a multi-hit night with RBI and run-scoring upside.

Honorable Mentions

• Marcus Semien ($3,700)
• Ozzie Albies ($3,400)

3B Plays

Top Play: Isaac Paredes ($4,800)

Isaac Paredes faces a dream matchup at Coors Field, where the Rockies’ pitching staff has allowed the highest wOBA to right-handed hitters in the league. Despite a quiet last outing, he’s shown consistent power with a 19-point DraftKings performance just three games ago, and his leadoff spot for Houston guarantees maximum plate appearances in this elite run environment. His 2.23x value multiplier is one of the highest on the slate, and his 14.84% optimal lineup rate reflects his upside in this context.

Paredes has been heating up with multi-hit games in two of his last four starts, and Coors Field’s thin air only amplifies his contact-heavy approach. The Rockies’ pitching staff ranks bottom-five in ERA against righties, and his $4,800 salary remains a steal for a top-of-the-order bat in this explosive offensive setting. With 17.8% ownership, he’s a chalk play for good reason—his combination of floor and ceiling is unmatched at third base tonight.

Honorable Mentions

• Miguel Vargas ($3,300)
• Will Wagner ($2,000)

SS Plays

Top Play: Elly De La Cruz ($5,900)

Elly De La Cruz has been a consistent fantasy producer with hits in four of his last five games, including a 15-point DraftKings performance with a hit, run, RBI, and stolen base against the Padres. Batting third for the Reds, he’s locked into a premium lineup spot with maximum plate appearances in a game where Cincinnati’s implied run total is strong. His combination of power and speed (1.9x value) gives him elite upside, especially against a Red Sox pitching staff that has struggled to contain left-handed bats this season.

De La Cruz faces a Boston team allowing a .335 wOBA to lefties, and his 10.4% ownership is manageable in tournaments given his top-5 tournament rank. Fenway Park’s short right-field porch plays perfectly to his pull-side power, and his 13.4% optimal lineup rate reflects his high ceiling. With steals and extra-base hits in his profile, he’s a rare mid-tier play who can single-handedly win a slate.

Honorable Mentions

• Gunnar Henderson ($4,300)
• Corey Seager ($3,800)

OF Plays

Top Play: Shohei Ohtani ($6,400)

Shohei Ohtani continues to deliver elite power production with home runs in three of his last five games, including a 28-point DraftKings explosion just four days ago. Batting leadoff for the Dodgers, he maximizes plate appearances against a White Sox pitching staff that ranks bottom-five in ERA and WHIP. His $6,400 salary presents strong 1.95x value in a game where Los Angeles carries one of the highest implied team totals on the slate.

Ohtani faces a White Sox team allowing the third-most home runs to left-handed hitters this season, and his 16% optimal lineup rate reflects this premium matchup. Despite recent 0-fers, his underlying metrics show a .920 xSLG on contact over the past week, with 40% of his batted balls exceeding 100 mph exit velocity. The combination of lineup spot, power upside, and opponent weakness makes him a top-tier tournament play even at elevated ownership.

Honorable Mentions

• Giancarlo Stanton ($3,300)
• Mike Trout ($4,500)

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