FREE 07/08 MLB Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s 13-game MLB slate has plenty of offensive potential, with five games carrying totals of 9+ runs. The Braves-Athletics matchup stands out with a slate-high 10.5-run total in Oakland, making it a top stacking target, while the Cubs-Twins game (9.5 runs) and Rockies-Red Sox (9.0 runs) also offer strong hitting environments. Weather is a concern in several spots, particularly in New York (63% chance of rain, wind blowing out) and Boston (66% chance, wind in), which could lead to delays or cancellations. Meanwhile, the Marlins-Reds game in Cincinnati has ideal conditions with a light wind blowing out.

Pitching is more split tonight, with a few clear spots to attack. The Rangers-Angels game (8.5 runs) and Diamondbacks-Padres (7.5 runs) both feature solid arms, but the latter’s low total makes it a potential fade for bats. The Dodgers-Brewers matchup in Milwaukee’s dome is one to watch, with Clayton Kershaw facing a tough lineup. Keep an eye on the weather in St. Louis (62% chance of rain, wind out) and Chicago (33% chance), as those games could see disruptions. The late slate has cleaner conditions, with clear skies in Anaheim and San Diego boosting those matchups.

Top Stacks

ATL 5-Man ($22,900)

Ronald Acuna Jr., Matt Olson, Austin Riley, Marcell Ozuna, Jurickson Profar

The Braves stack offers strong value at 2.10 pts/$1K, making them a cost-efficient play despite their mid-tier ownership (9.6%) and solid 7.5% optimal rate. Facing a pitcher with a 4.80 xFIP against right-handed bats, Acuña, Olson, Riley, Ozuna, and Profar benefit from a high 10.5-run game total in a hitter-friendly environment—clear skies, warm temps, and a light wind blowing out. Ozuna’s recent power surge (1.025 OPS last 15 games) and Profar’s contact skills against lefties (.360 wOBA) add upside, while the stack’s balanced ownership keeps them under the radar in large-field tournaments. Attack the matchup, but don’t overexpose—this is a sharp secondary stack, not a must-play.

ATH 5-Man ($23,300)

Lawrence Butler, Jacob Wilson, Brent Rooker, Nick Kurtz, Shea Langeliers

The ATH stack offers strong value at 1.89 pts/$1,000 with below-average ownership (4.8%)—ideal for leverage in large-field contests, especially given its 6.6% optimal lineup rate. While the game environment lacks a standout total or weather narrative, the stack’s salary efficiency stands out. Lawrence Butler and Brent Rooker bring power upside, while Jacob Wilson and Nick Kurtz provide salary relief with multi-hit potential. Langeliers rounds out the group with catcher eligibility and underrated pop. With minimal ownership competition, this stack allows you to differentiate without sacrificing floor or ceiling.

CHC 5-Man ($25,000)

Ian Happ, Kyle Tucker, Seiya Suzuki, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Dansby Swanson

The Cubs stack offers strong value at 1.91 pts/$1000, making them a cost-efficient play with upside in a game with a solid 9.5-run total. At just 6.1% average ownership and a 6.4% optimal lineup rate, they’re flying under the radar in a favorable hitting environment—clear weather and an 8 MPH wind in Minneapolis could help carry a few extra fly balls. The salary flexibility from this mid-tier stack allows for pairing with higher-priced studs, and with solid matchup data (CHC’s implied run total suggests production potential), this group is a sharp contrarian pivot in tournaments.

SP Plays

Top Play: Brayan Bello ($6,600)

Brayan Bello has been showcasing impressive form with three strong outings in his last five starts, including a dominant 7-inning, 8-strikeout shutout performance against the Yankees. His 2.05 ERA and 10.5 K/9 over his past three home starts highlight his ability to control games at Fenway, and tonight’s matchup against the Rockies—who rank last in MLB in road OPS (.620) and strike out at a 24.5% clip against right-handers—sets him up for another high-ceiling outing. At just $6,600, his 2.36x value projection makes him one of the most efficient SP plays on the slate.

Bello’s sinker-slider combination has been generating weak contact (15.3% swinging-strike rate in June), and Colorado’s aggressive approach plays right into his strengths. The Rockies’ .286 team wOBA against righties on the road is the worst in baseball, and Fenway’s pitcher-friendly dimensions further suppress their limited power. With Bello appearing in 10.9% of optimal lineups and his salary leaving room for premium bats, he’s the ideal tournament arm to anchor your builds. The elevated ownership is justified given his combination of floor and upside in this spot.

Honorable Mentions

• Hunter Brown ($11,000)
• Eury Perez ($6,000)

C Plays

Top Play: Sean Murphy ($3,500)

Sean Murphy continues to deliver power production from the catcher position, homering twice in his last five games with a 19-point DraftKings performance as recently as July 6. Batting sixth in Atlanta’s loaded lineup, he benefits from RBI opportunities in a game where the Braves have one of the highest implied team totals on the slate. His $3,500 salary presents strong 2.28x value, and his 8.96% optimal lineup rate reflects his ceiling in this matchup.

Murphy faces a vulnerable Athletics pitching staff that ranks bottom-five in ERA, and his right-handed power plays well in Oakland’s pitcher-friendly park. His 8.5% ownership is elevated but justified given his recent form and Atlanta’s offensive firepower. With consistent hard-hit rates and multi-hit upside, Murphy offers both safety and tournament-winning potential at a position where elite production is rare.

Honorable Mentions

• William Contreras ($4,100)
• Agustin Ramirez ($3,900)

1B Plays

Top Play: Andrew Vaughn ($2,000)

Andrew Vaughn continues to deliver explosive upside at a minimal $2,000 salary, fresh off a 22-point DraftKings performance with a homer and 3 RBI against the Dodgers just two days ago. His 5th spot in Milwaukee’s lineup ensures RBI opportunities in a potent offense, and he faces a Dodgers pitching staff that’s struggled against right-handed power all season. With a 3.52x value multiplier and appearances in 6.3% of optimal lineups, Vaughn’s combination of recent form and salary relief is unmatched.

His moderate 7.1% ownership keeps him under the radar in tournaments despite his elite Hero GPP Rank of 1. The matchup against LAD’s bullpen—which has allowed a .330 wOBA to righties over the last month—sets up perfectly for his aggressive approach. Vaughn’s ability to capitalize on mistakes with multi-category production makes him a must-play at this price point, especially with Milwaukee’s lineup poised for runs.

Honorable Mentions

• Romy Gonzalez ($4,400)
• Shohei Ohtani ($6,500)

2B Plays

Top Play: Matt McLain ($3,900)

Matt McLain faces a Miami pitching staff that has struggled against right-handed bats, posting a collective 4.75 ERA with elevated hard-contact rates over the past month. Hitting second in a potent Reds lineup, he’s positioned for both run-scoring opportunities and RBI chances, with Cincinnati’s implied run total sitting among the highest on the slate. His $3,900 salary delivers strong 2.15x value potential, and his 10.4% optimal lineup appearance rate signals clear upside in tournaments.

Despite a recent cold stretch, McLain’s underlying metrics show consistent hard-hit rates and sprint speed that translates to stolen base upside—his 15-point DK performance on July 2 highlights the ceiling. The matchup against Miami’s bullpen (bottom-10 in WHIP vs RHH) sets up for positive regression, and his 8.7% ownership is manageable for a player with his combination of lineup spot and park factors. The profile fits perfectly for GPPs where differentiation and upside are critical.

Honorable Mentions

• Jorge Polanco ($3,400)
• Romy Gonzalez ($4,400)

3B Plays

Top Play: Austin Riley ($4,400)

Austin Riley faces a premium matchup tonight hitting third for the Braves in a high-scoring environment. He’s coming off a 23-point DraftKings performance just two games ago with a homer and 3 RBI, showing his explosive upside. The 2.2x value at $4,400 is exceptional for a player with his power potential, and his 11.4% ownership reflects strong consensus in tournaments. Hitting in the heart of Atlanta’s lineup guarantees him opportunities with runners on base.

Riley’s recent 5-for-15 stretch includes multi-hit games in two of his last five, and his third spot in the order maximizes plate appearances. The matchup against a weak ATH pitching staff boosts his appeal, and his optimal lineup rate (11.02%) confirms his tournament-winning ceiling. At this salary, he provides elite power at a position lacking consistent production, making him a must-play in all formats.

Honorable Mentions

• Nolan Gorman ($3,600)
• Thomas Saggese ($2,600)

SS Plays

Top Play: Otto Lopez ($3,700)

Otto Lopez slots into the 3-hole for Miami tonight against Cincinnati, a prime spot for run production in a game with an elevated run environment. He’s shown flashes of power with a 20-point DraftKings performance just three games ago, and his $3,700 salary delivers elite 2.2x value in a lineup that’s quietly averaging 4.5 runs over their last 10 games. The Reds’ pitching staff ranks bottom-10 in ERA against right-handed bats, and Lopez’s moderate 5.4% ownership keeps him under the radar in tournaments.

Lopez faces a Cincinnati bullpen that’s been vulnerable late in games, and his 7.7% optimal lineup rate reflects his upside in this matchup. Hitting ahead of Miami’s middle-order power bats ensures he’ll see quality pitches, and his multi-category potential (HR, RBI, runs) fits perfectly in a hitter-friendly park. At this price point, his ceiling far outweighs the risk, making him the top tournament play at shortstop.

Honorable Mentions

• Trevor Story ($4,200)
• Bobby Witt Jr. ($5,400)

OF Plays

Top Play: Lawrence Butler ($4,400)

Lawrence Butler is heating up with hits in three of his last five games, including a 16-point DraftKings performance on July 4th where he scored three runs. Batting leadoff for the A’s, he’s guaranteed volume in a matchup against Atlanta’s pitching staff, and his $4,400 salary delivers strong 2.1x value in a tournament-friendly 6% ownership range. His left-handed bat is positioned for upside against a right-handed starter, and his recent form suggests he’s finding ways to contribute even without power.

Butler’s 11.5% optimal lineup appearance rate reflects his sneaky ceiling at this price point. The A’s offense has shown life lately, and his spot atop the order ensures he’ll see pitches to hit in what could be a higher-scoring game. With moderate ownership and tournament-winning potential, Butler is a high-leverage play in a slate where differentiation matters.

Honorable Mentions

• Marcell Ozuna ($3,800)
• Shohei Ohtani ($6,500)

Good luck today! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Player Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!