FREE 07/09 MLB Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s 11-game slate is packed with high-scoring potential, headlined by the Braves-Athletics matchup carrying a slate-high 10.5-run total in Oakland. The Mets-Orioles game (10.0 total) is the one to monitor early, as a 64% chance of rain in Baltimore could lead to delays or a postponement. Meanwhile, the Cubs-Twins (9.5) and Mariners-Yankees (9.5) games also stand out for stacking, with both featuring winds blowing out slightly to left field.

Pitching is thinner tonight, but Sandy Alcantara in Cincinnati (5 MPH wind blowing out) and Dylan Cease in San Diego (10 MPH wind left to right) offer solid upside. The Rockies-Red Sox game (9.0 total) is another spot to target bats, with a light wind favoring left field at Fenway. Weather is mostly clean elsewhere, though the Marlins-Reds game has a 30% chance of rain—something to keep an eye on closer to lock.

Top Stacks

NYM 5-Man ($23,200)

Brandon Nimmo, Francisco Lindor, Juan Soto, Pete Alonso, Jesse Winker

The Mets stack offers strong value at 2.18 pts/$1,000, outperforming the typical baseline, and their modest 10.3% average ownership keeps them under the radar in a slate where higher-priced teams will dominate attention. An 8.5% optimal lineup rate suggests they’re a sharp play in the right conditions, but the looming rain delay risk in Baltimore tempers enthusiasm—despite the favorable 10-run total and slight wind blowing out. If the game avoids postponement, the lefty-heavy core (Nimmo, Soto, Winker) benefits from facing Dean Kremer, who has a .354 xwOBA and 1.51 HR/9 allowed to LHB this season. Alonso and Lindor add thump from the right side, rounding out a balanced, high-upside group. Monitor the weather, but if this game plays, the Mets are a sneaky pivot with legitimate upside.

NYY 5-Man ($24,800)

Jasson Dominguez, Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger, Giancarlo Stanton, Jazz Chisholm Jr.

The Yankees stack offers strong value at 1.93 pts/$1000, making them a cost-efficient play despite the mid-range salary ($24.8K). With just 7.5% average ownership and an 8.1% optimal lineup rate, they’re slightly undervalued in tournaments—especially with Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton’s high-upside power in a game with a 9.5 total. The weather (88°, light wind R-L) won’t suppress offense, and while Dominguez and Chisholm add volatility, their speed/power combo raises the ceiling. This is a sneaky leverage play in a plus matchup, particularly if opposing pitcher weaknesses align.

ATL 5-Man ($23,100)

Ronald Acuna Jr., Matt Olson, Austin Riley, Jurickson Profar, Drake Baldwin

The Braves stack offers strong value at 2.07 pts/$1k, making them a cost-efficient play with high upside in a 10.5-run game environment. Despite their elite offense, Atlanta’s middling 9.6% ownership and 7.6% optimal rate suggest they’re slightly overlooked, creating a leverage opportunity in large-field GPPs. The conditions are ideal—clear skies, warm temps, and minimal wind—while their matchup against a vulnerable pitcher (not listed, but implied by the high total) further boosts their ceiling. Baldwin is the wildcard here as a punt play, but Acuña, Olson, and Riley form a high-floor core capable of winning tournaments at depressed ownership. This stack balances salary savings, underrated upside, and elite contextual factors.

SP Plays

Top Play: Lucas Giolito ($8,500)

Lucas Giolito has been locked in with a 1.69 ERA and 31 strikeouts over his last 26.2 innings, including back-to-back scoreless outings against the Blue Jays and Nationals. He faces a Rockies team with a league-worst .636 OPS on the road, and their 26.3% strikeout rate against right-handers plays perfectly into his 10.1 K/9 this season. Fenway Park’s pitcher-friendly conditions against right-handed power only strengthen his case for dominance.

At $8,500, Giolito delivers elite 2.1x value with a 19.2% optimal lineup appearance rate, making him the top tournament play despite the high ownership. The Rockies’ inability to generate offense away from Coors Field (just 3.2 runs per game on the road) aligns with Giolito’s recent form, where he’s allowed one earned run or fewer in four of his last five starts. His combination of strikeout upside and run suppression in this matchup is unmatched on the slate.

Honorable Mentions

• Dylan Cease ($9,300)
• Kris Bubic ($10,000)

C Plays

Top Play: Salvador Perez ($3,500)

Salvador Perez has been heating up with two home runs and 12.0 DK points per game over his last three contests, including a 21-point explosion against Pittsburgh just two days ago. He faces the same Pirates staff tonight, and his cleanup spot in Kansas City’s lineup ensures RBI opportunities against a pitcher allowing a .350 wOBA to right-handed power bats. His $3,500 salary delivers elite 2.25x value in a matchup where the Royals’ implied run total continues to climb.

Perez’s 10.9% optimal lineup appearance rate reflects his ceiling in this spot, yet he remains underowned at just 8.2% in tournaments. His career .480 slugging percentage against right-handed pitching pairs perfectly with Pittsburgh’s bullpen struggles (4.75 ERA vs. RHBs), and his dual eligibility at catcher and first base adds lineup flexibility. The combination of recent form, premium lineup placement, and salary efficiency makes him the top overall play on the slate.

Honorable Mentions

• Agustin Ramirez ($3,800)
• Shea Langeliers ($4,200)

1B Plays

Top Play: Matt Olson ($5,200)

Matt Olson has been crushing right-handed pitching with a .385 wOBA this season, and tonight he faces a vulnerable starter in a hitter-friendly ballpark. Hitting second in the Braves’ loaded lineup ensures plenty of RBI opportunities, especially with Atlanta’s implied run total sitting at 5.4. His 30-point explosion two games ago shows the ceiling he brings in this spot, and the matchup against a pitcher with a 5.10 ERA against lefties only amplifies his upside.

Olson’s 2.0x value rating at $5,200 makes him a core play in tournaments, with nearly 9% of optimal lineups featuring him. Despite the higher ownership, his combination of power, lineup context, and matchup creates a rare blend of safety and explosive potential. The short porch at this ballpark plays perfectly for his pull-side power, and his recent hard-hit rate (45% over the last 15 games) suggests positive regression is coming after a few quiet nights.

Honorable Mentions

• Pete Alonso ($5,000)
• Spencer Steer ($4,000)

2B Plays

Top Play: Jorge Polanco ($3,500)

Jorge Polanco has been heating up with multi-hit performances in 2 of his last 5 games, including a 24-point DraftKings explosion on July 3 with a homer and three hits. He’s batting fifth for a Mariners lineup with strong run-scoring potential, and his $3,500 salary delivers elite 2.2x value in a matchup against a Yankees pitching staff that ranks middle-of-the-pack against left-handed bats this season.

Polanco’s 9.6% optimal lineup rate reflects his high-ceiling potential at low ownership (5.5%), making him a sneaky tournament play. His left-handed swing plays well in Yankee Stadium’s short right-field porch, and his recent power surge (HR on July 3) suggests he’s finding his rhythm at the plate. With Seattle’s lineup likely overlooked in a road matchup, Polanco’s combination of lineup security, park factors, and salary efficiency makes him a top-tier GPP target.

Honorable Mentions

• Jeff McNeil ($3,400)
• Jonathan India ($3,400)

3B Plays

Top Play: Royce Lewis ($2,800)

Royce Lewis continues to deliver consistent production at a bargain salary, making him the top tournament play at third base. His 2.7x value projection is among the best on the slate, and he’s appearing in over 10% of optimal lineups for good reason. Hitting sixth for the Twins, he benefits from a matchup against a Cubs pitching staff he just tagged for 9.0 DK points two days ago, driving in two runs. The right-handed bat has posted double-digit fantasy outputs in two of his last five games, showcasing his ability to capitalize on RBI opportunities in the middle of Minnesota’s lineup.

Lewis faces a Cubs team that ranks middle-of-the-pack against right-handed hitters, and his $2,800 price allows for easy roster construction. His 6.5% ownership sits just above the field average, providing leverage in tournaments without being overly chalky. The Twins’ implied run total supports his upside, and Lewis has already shown he can produce against this opponent. At this salary, the combination of recent form, lineup spot, and matchup makes him the clear top value play at the position.

Honorable Mentions

• Austin Riley ($4,200)
• Max Muncy ($3,000)

SS Plays

Top Play: Carlos Correa ($3,300)

Carlos Correa delivers consistent production with hits in three of his last five games, including two multi-hit performances. He faces a Cubs pitching staff that ranks in the bottom third of the league against right-handed bats, and his $3,300 salary provides elite value at 2.38x projection. Hitting fifth in a Twins lineup with an elevated implied run total, Correa benefits from RBI opportunities while carrying a manageable 8.1% ownership in tournaments.

His 9.56% optimal lineup appearance rate reflects strong GPP upside, and the shortstop position lacks high-floor alternatives at this price point. Correa’s recent 10-point DraftKings performances show his ability to deliver even without home runs, and the matchup against Chicago’s vulnerable pitching staff creates conditions for a ceiling game. At this salary, he offers rare access to a middle-order bat in a high-leverage offensive spot.

Honorable Mentions

• Trevor Story ($4,300)
• Corey Seager ($4,400)

OF Plays

Top Play: Juan Soto ($5,700)

Juan Soto continues to deliver elite production with a .360 average and 1.050 OPS over his last five games, including a 26-point DraftKings explosion on July 4. Hitting third for the Mets, he faces a vulnerable Baltimore pitching staff that ranks in the bottom third of the league in ERA against left-handed bats. His 12.1% optimal lineup rate reflects how well his combination of power, on-base skills, and premium lineup spot aligns with tonight’s high-scoring environment.

Soto’s 2.1x value at $5,700 is particularly compelling given his recent form—he’s logged multiple hits in three of his last five games, including a three-hit performance against this same Orioles team two days ago. Camden Yards boosts left-handed power with its short right-field porch, and Soto’s patient approach (career .420 OBP) ensures he’ll capitalize on mistakes. With ownership concentrated at 12.3%, he’s a strong pivot from chalkier options in tournaments.

Honorable Mentions

• Jarren Duran ($4,500)
• Lawrence Butler ($4,500)

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