FREE 07/10 MLB Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s 7-game slate is packed with high-scoring potential, led by the Braves-Athletics matchup carrying a slate-high 10.5-run total in Oakland’s hitter-friendly conditions. The Rangers-Angels and Yankees-Mariners games also stand out with totals of 10.0 and 9.5 runs, respectively, offering plenty of stacking appeal. Weather is mostly clear, but the fog in Boston could slightly dampen the Rays-Red Sox game, while the wind blowing in at both Fenway and Guaranteed Rate Field may suppress power slightly.

Pitching is thin tonight, but Spencer Strider’s strikeout upside against the Athletics is the clear top option. The Nationals-Cardinals game in St. Louis has a 9.0-run total with a light wind favoring right-handed pull hitters, while the Diamondbacks-Padres matchup in San Diego features a sneaky-good park factor for lefties. The late slate is especially hitter-friendly, with ideal conditions in Anaheim and Oakland boosting offensive expectations.

Top Stacks

ATL 5-Man ($23,700)

Ronald Acuna Jr., Matt Olson, Austin Riley, Sean Murphy, Jurickson Profar

This Braves stack offers strong value at 2.16 pts/$1,000, with mid-range ownership (15.9%) that doesn’t carry excessive risk in large-field tournaments. The 13.3% optimal rate suggests it’s a viable core, especially in a game with a 10.5-run total—one of the highest on the slate. The top-heavy trio of Acuña, Olson, and Riley provides elite power against a lefty (assuming the opposing starter is vulnerable), while Murphy and Profar add salary relief without sacrificing upside. The extreme heat (100°F) in Sacramento could further aid hitter performance, potentially elevating ball carry in the thin air. At sub-20% ownership, this group has the leverage to separate in GPPs if the Braves deliver on their implied run total.

TEX 5-Man ($19,800)

Josh Smith, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Adolis Garcia, Jonah Heim

The Rangers stack offers strong value at 2.17 pts/$1,000, pairing upside with reasonable 11.3% ownership and a solid 10.2% optimal lineup rate—a sneaky leverage pivot in a game with a 10-run total. The wind blowing out in Anaheim (7 MPH) boosts power potential against a shaky Angels pitching staff, particularly for righties like Garcia and Heim. Clear weather and warm temps (82° F) further elevate the offensive environment. Seager and Semien provide elite floor/ceiling combos, while Smith’s salary flexibility helps balance lineups. At sub-12% ownership, this stack is a sharp way to differentiate in large-field GPPs without sacrificing raw points.

SEA 5-Man ($23,900)

J.P. Crawford, Julio Rodriguez, Cal Raleigh, Randy Arozarena, Jorge Polanco

The Mariners stack offers strong value at 1.95 pts/$1K, making it a cost-efficient way to attack a 9.5-run game environment in Yankee Stadium. With just 10% average ownership and a 9.3% optimal lineup rate, this group is slightly overlooked despite their upside against a vulnerable Yankees pitching staff. The righty-heavy Seattle lineup gets a boost from the short porch in right field, and the warm, partly cloudy conditions with minimal wind shouldn’t disrupt power potential. Crawford and Polanco provide salary relief at the top, while Rodríguez and Arozarena bring stolen base upside, giving this stack multiple paths to production. At this price and ownership, it’s a sharp pivot from higher-chalk options.

SP Plays

Top Play: Spencer Strider ($9,500)

Spencer Strider continues to dominate with a 2.05 ERA and 13.5 K/9 over his last three starts, including a 13-strikeout gem against Colorado. Tonight’s matchup against the Athletics—who own the league’s highest strikeout rate (26.3%) against right-handed pitching—sets him up for massive upside in Oakland’s pitcher-friendly park. His 2.17x value at $9,500 is elite for a pitcher with his floor and ceiling, and he appears in 31.1% of optimal lineups for good reason.

Strider has eclipsed 20+ DraftKings points in three of his last five outings, and the Athletics’ weak .285 wOBA against righties plays directly into his strengths. His 54.8% ownership reflects the field’s confidence in this spot, but the combination of strikeout potential, run suppression, and salary efficiency makes him the clear top tournament play. Atlanta’s strong run support only adds to his win equity in a matchup where he could easily deliver a 30-point performance.

Honorable Mentions

• Taj Bradley ($8,200)
• Logan Allen ($7,700)

C Plays

Top Play: Sean Murphy ($3,900)

Sean Murphy has been heating up with a home run and 19.0 DraftKings points in his last three games, showing the power upside that makes him a premier catcher play. Batting cleanup for the Braves—a team with one of the highest implied run totals tonight—he’s positioned for RBI opportunities in a lineup that thrives against right-handed pitching. His $3,900 salary delivers strong 2.34x value in a matchup against a pitcher with a 4.80 ERA, and his 15.6% optimal lineup rate reflects his ceiling in this spot.

Murphy’s 15.4% ownership is justified by his combination of lineup placement and recent form, especially in a weak catcher pool where consistent production is rare. The Braves’ offense is clicking, and his right-handed power plays well in tonight’s park context. With a tournament rank of 1 at the position, he’s the clear top-tier play at catcher, offering both safety and explosive potential in a high-scoring environment.

Honorable Mentions

• Cal Raleigh ($6,300)
• Logan O’Hoppe ($3,500)

1B Plays

Top Play: Matt Olson ($5,400)

Matt Olson continues to deliver power production from the heart of Atlanta’s lineup, batting second in a potent offense with an implied team total among the highest on the slate. He’s coming off a 30-point explosion just four games ago and faces a pitcher at ATH who struggles against left-handed power, with a .350+ wOBA allowed over the last month. His 1.9x value at $5,400 is one of the strongest among elite first basemen, and his 14.5% optimal lineup rate reflects his high-ceiling upside in this matchup.

Olson’s patient approach and barrel consistency (top-10% in hard-hit rate) give him multi-hit and home run potential every time he steps in. The matchup at ATH’s hitter-friendly park boosts his ceiling, and his moderate ownership (14.3%) keeps him from being overly chalky in tournaments. With Atlanta’s lineup clicking and Olson’s ability to capitalize on mistakes, he’s a locked-in top-tier play at first base tonight.

Honorable Mentions

• Luke Raley ($3,300)
• Josh Smith ($4,200)

2B Plays

Top Play: Ozzie Albies ($3,800)

Ozzie Albies faces a favorable matchup against the Athletics with strong value upside at just $3,800. Despite recent quiet games, his underlying metrics and lineup spot in a high-powered Braves offense keep him in a prime position to rebound. The Athletics’ pitching staff ranks among the league’s worst in ERA and WHIP, and Albies’ left-handed bat gains an edge against a right-handed starter allowing a .450+ slugging percentage to lefties this season. His 7th spot in the order ensures he’ll see RBI opportunities with Atlanta’s elite top-of-the-lineup hitters consistently on base.

Albies’ 2.2x value projection and 10.2% optimal lineup appearance rate highlight his ceiling in this spot. While his ownership sits at 14.1%, it remains manageable in a GPP context given the Braves’ explosive offensive potential. His career splits against right-handed pitching (.280+ average, .800+ OPS) align perfectly with this matchup, and the Athletics’ bullpen struggles further boost his late-game upside. At this salary, Albies delivers rare second-base access to Atlanta’s run-scoring environment with minimal risk.

Honorable Mentions

• Jorge Polanco ($3,600)
• Angel Martinez ($3,000)

3B Plays

Top Play: Paul DeJong ($2,300)

Paul DeJong offers elite value at just $2,300 with a 2.77x multiplier in a prime matchup against his former team. Hitting sixth for the Nationals, he benefits from a lineup with an elevated implied run total, and his recent form includes consistent contact with a 9.0-point DraftKings performance in his last full game. His right-handed power plays well in this park, and his tournament-optimal 13.24% lineup rate reflects his high-upside potential at minimal ownership.

DeJong’s moderate 8.0% ownership keeps him under the radar in tournaments, yet he ranks as the #1 value play at his position. His spot in the middle of Washington’s order ensures RBI opportunities, and the Cardinals’ pitching staff has shown vulnerability to right-handed power. At this salary, he provides rare salary relief with the ability to return multiple times value, making him a must-play in all formats.

Honorable Mentions

• Austin Riley ($4,400)
• Jose Ramirez ($5,700)

SS Plays

Top Play: Corey Seager ($4,500)

Corey Seager has been demolishing Angels pitching this series with back-to-back 20+ DraftKings point performances, including a homer in two of his last three games. Hitting second in a Rangers lineup with a high implied run total, he faces an Angels pitching staff that ranks bottom-five in ERA against left-handed bats. His 2.3x value projection at $4,500 is among the best at shortstop, and his 15.8% optimal lineup rate reflects this premium matchup.

Seager’s patient approach (career .371 OBP) pairs perfectly with his current power surge, and his 19.8% ownership is justified given the combination of recent form and opponent vulnerability. The Angels’ bullpen has allowed the third-highest hard-hit rate to lefties over the past month, and Seager’s elevated spot in the order ensures he’ll see multiple opportunities to capitalize. This is a rare instance where elite production, ideal lineup context, and strong value converge at a premium position.

Honorable Mentions

• Zach Neto ($5,000)
• Xander Bogaerts ($3,400)

OF Plays

Top Play: Ronald Acuna Jr. ($6,400)

Ronald Acuña Jr. has immediately reignited his power surge with two homers in his return from a brief back issue, showcasing the explosive upside that makes him a DFS cornerstone. He leads off for a Braves lineup with one of the highest implied run totals on the slate, and his .454 OBP ensures premium scoring opportunities against an Athletics pitching staff that ranks bottom-5 in ERA. The matchup against right-handers plays right into his strengths—he owns a .950 OPS vs RHP this season, and his 30-point DraftKings explosion Wednesday proves he only needs one swing to pay off his salary.

At $6,400, Acuña delivers elite 2x value potential with a combination of power (11 HR in 41 games) and speed (4 SB), while his 16% optimal lineup rate reflects his ceiling in this spot. Despite the elevated ownership, his leadoff role in a stacked offense mitigates risk—Atlanta’s 1st-inning run-scoring rate jumps 22% when he starts, and Oakland’s bullpen has allowed the 3rd-most homers to right-handed bats. The recent slump is over; Acuña’s back-to-back homers signal he’s locked in, and the park factors at Oakland Coliseum (boosted HR rate for righties) further tilt this in his favor.

Honorable Mentions

• Jorge Soler ($3,000)
• Wyatt Langford ($4,000)

Good luck today! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Player Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!