FREE 07/18 MLB Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s 11-game MLB slate has plenty of DFS-friendly matchups, with Coors Field leading the way as the obvious stacking spot thanks to its 11-run total. The Giants-Blue Jays game in the dome also has an appealing 8.5 total, while the Yankees-Braves clash in Atlanta carries risk with a 37% chance of rain but could see extra power with the wind blowing out. Weather is mostly clean elsewhere, though the Brewers-Dodgers game in LA has a sneaky 10 MPH wind aiding fly balls.

Pitching options are split between high-strikeout arms like Spencer Strider and softer matchups like Patrick Corbin facing the Tigers. The Twins-Rockies game is the clear hitting priority, but don’t sleep on the Orioles-Rays matchup with its 9-run total in Tampa’s humid conditions. With minimal weather concerns outside of Atlanta and Tampa, target the usual hitter-friendly parks and wind-aided spots.

Top Stacks

MIN 5-Man ($24,300)

Byron Buxton, Ryan Jeffers, Willi Castro, Carlos Correa, Ty France

The Twins stack offers strong value at 2.10 pts/$1,000 with moderate ownership (12.9%) and a solid 9.4% optimal lineup rate, making them a viable pivot in a high-total (11.0) game at Coors Field. The righty-heavy lineup faces Peter Lambert (5.46 ERA), whose struggles against both lefties (.394 wOBA) and righties (.352 wOBA) create opportunities for Buxton, Jeffers, and Correa to capitalize. While the wind blowing in slightly tempers upside, the combination of park factors, a weak opposing pitcher, and affordable salaries keeps this stack in play—especially for those looking to differentiate in large-field GPPs.

LAD 5-Man ($24,000)

Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Will Smith, Teoscar Hernandez

The Dodgers’ top-five stack (Ohtani, Betts, Freeman, Smith, Hernandez) brings strong value at 1.90 pts/$1000—a solid return for a high-salary group—while flying under the radar at just 7.7% average ownership. Their 7.6% optimal rate suggests they’re fairly priced but not overleveraged, making them a sharp tournament play. The matchup plays into their favor with a healthy 8.5-run total and a light 10 MPH wind blowing out at Dodger Stadium, where the partly cloudy, 74° conditions won’t hinder power. With minimal weather risk and elite hitters facing a mid-tier pitcher (implied by the total), this stack has both the floor and ceiling to outperform its modest ownership.

COL 5-Man ($21,300)

Tyler Freeman, Mickey Moniak, Hunter Goodman, Ryan McMahon, Jordan Beck

The Rockies stack offers strong value at 2.03 pts/$1000, making them a cost-efficient option in a game with an 11-run total—one of the highest on the slate. With an average ownership of just 7.2% and a 7.5% optimal rate, this group is under the radar in a plus matchup. Coors Field’s hitter-friendly environment, combined with partly cloudy, warm conditions and minimal wind, should keep the ball carrying. Freeman and Moniak provide speed upside, while McMahon and Goodman bring power against a vulnerable opposing pitcher, making this stack both high-ceiling and low-owned.

SP Plays

Top Play: Spencer Strider ($9,000)

Spencer Strider has been overpowering hitters with 11 strikeouts in 6.2 innings his last time out, continuing his elite 11.8 K/9 rate over his past five starts. The Yankees strike out 25.7% of the time against right-handed pitching, the fourth-highest rate in baseball, and their .302 team wOBA against RHP ranks bottom-10. At just $9,000, his 2.26x value projection makes him the top-priced pitching play with tournament-winning upside.

Strider benefits from a home start in Truist Park (top-10 pitcher-friendly park factor) and faces a Yankees lineup missing key right-handed bats. His 39.3% ownership reflects near-perfect conditions—high strikeout opponent, premium venue, and salary discount for a pitcher capable of 30+ DK points. The 19.8% optimal lineup rate confirms this is the spot to capitalize on his combination of floor and ceiling.

Honorable Mentions

• Tyler Glasnow ($8,000)
• Slade Cecconi ($7,800)

C Plays

Top Play: Ryan Jeffers ($4,700)

Ryan Jeffers continues to crush right-handed pitching with a .920 OPS and .390 wOBA against them this season. Batting second in a Twins lineup with a top-five implied run total at Coors Field, he’s in prime position for run production against a Rockies pitching staff allowing the highest home ERA in baseball. His 2.1x value projection at catcher—where production is scarce—makes him an elite tournament play with multi-homer upside in this environment.

Jeffers has tallied a 15.6% barrel rate and 42.9% hard-hit rate over his last 15 games, showing the kind of contact quality that plays up dramatically at altitude. Colorado’s bullpen ranks 29th in xFIP to right-handed bats, and Jeffers’ elevated lineup spot guarantees extra at-bats in what should be a high-scoring affair. At just $4,700 with optimal lineup appearances nearly doubling the field average, he’s the clear top catcher target.

Honorable Mentions

• David Fry ($2,500)
• Hunter Goodman ($4,900)

1B Plays

Top Play: David Fry ($2,500)

David Fry faces a prime opportunity batting second for Cleveland at just $2,500, making him the top tournament play at his position. His 2.6x value projection is elite for a hitter in the heart of the order, and he’s appearing in over 5% of optimal lineups for good reason. The matchup against ATH’s pitching staff presents a chance to capitalize on his right-handed power, and his lineup spot ensures he’ll see multiple high-leverage at-bats in a game with strong run-scoring potential.

Despite recent quiet games, Fry’s underlying metrics and positional flexibility (1B/C) create a perfect storm for GPPs. His moderate 5.8% ownership keeps him under the radar while still reflecting sharp interest, and Cleveland’s implied run total sets up well for his salary. At this price point, Fry doesn’t need a monster performance to pay off—just one big swing in the two-hole could smash value and separate your lineup in tournaments.

Honorable Mentions

• Shohei Ohtani ($6,300)
• Jake Bauers ($3,000)

2B Plays

Top Play: Willi Castro ($4,800)

Willi Castro has been heating up with a 28-point DK performance just two games ago, showcasing his power upside with a homer and 3 RBI against Pittsburgh. Batting third for Minnesota at Coors Field, he gets an elite park boost and faces a Rockies pitching staff that ranks bottom-five in ERA against left-handed hitters. His multi-position eligibility at 2B/OF adds lineup flexibility, and his 2.1x value projection makes him a rare high-ceiling play at this salary tier.

Castro’s 10.5% optimal lineup appearance rate reflects his strong combination of opportunity and environment, with Coors Field increasing run-scoring potential by 30% compared to league average. Despite the elevated ownership (13%), his ceiling remains underrated—he’s one of only three players under $5K with a top-three tournament rank today. The Twins’ implied team total (5.8 runs) and his premium lineup spot lock him into scoring chances in baseball’s best hitter’s park.

Honorable Mentions

• Angel Martinez ($2,900)
• Ronny Mauricio ($2,800)

3B Plays

Top Play: Royce Lewis ($3,600)

Royce Lewis faces a dream matchup in Colorado with a $3,600 salary that offers elite 2.58x value in a hitter-friendly environment. He’s batting seventh for the Twins, who carry an elevated implied run total in Coors Field, and his right-handed power plays perfectly against a Rockies pitching staff that ranks among the league’s worst. Despite a quiet stretch over his last few games, Lewis’ underlying metrics and premium ballpark boost make him a high-ceiling play at minimal cost.

The 12.9% ownership reflects his obvious upside, but his presence in 7.7% of optimal lineups reinforces his tournament-winning potential. Lewis has shown flashes of explosive production this season, and Coors Field is the ideal spot for a breakout. With his salary allowing for roster flexibility and the Rockies’ pitching staff struggling to contain right-handed bats, Lewis delivers both floor and ceiling in a slate where stacking Minnesota bats could pay off big.

Honorable Mentions

• Ryan McMahon ($3,800)
• Jose Ramirez ($5,500)

SS Plays

Top Play: Carlos Correa ($4,200)

Carlos Correa faces a prime matchup at Coors Field with a $4,200 salary that screams value. He’s batting cleanup for a Twins team with an elevated implied run total, and his 2.39x value multiplier is among the best on the slate. Colorado’s pitching staff ranks bottom-five in ERA and WHIP, and Correa’s .350 xwOBA over the past month suggests he’s due for positive regression after a few quiet games.

His 12.6% ownership is justified given the combination of lineup spot, park factor, and opponent vulnerability. Correa has multi-hit performances in two of his last five games, and the thin air in Denver amplifies his power upside against a Rockies staff allowing the highest hard-hit rate in baseball. At this price, he provides tournament-winning upside with a floor that’s rarely this affordable.

Honorable Mentions

• Mookie Betts ($4,400)
• Ezequiel Tovar ($3,200)

OF Plays

Top Play: Byron Buxton ($6,500)

Byron Buxton has been on a tear with 9 hits in his last 15 at-bats, including a 5-hit, 39-point explosion just two games ago. Leading off for the Twins in Coors Field, he gets a massive park boost and the highest implied run total on the slate. His 2.0x value rating at $6,500 is one of the strongest among outfielders, and he’s appearing in nearly 18% of optimal lineups for a reason.

Batting first guarantees Buxton extra plate appearances in this elite run environment, and his recent power-speed combo (HR and SB in his last five games) gives him unmatched upside. The Rockies’ pitching staff ranks bottom-5 in ERA and WHIP, making this a perfect spot for Buxton to keep delivering at a salary that still isn’t prohibitive. His 19.6% ownership is justified given the combination of form, matchup, and ceiling.

Honorable Mentions

• Harrison Bader ($3,900)
• Alec Burleson ($3,700)

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