FREE 07/21 MLB Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s 10-game slate has plenty of offensive potential, with the Cardinals-Rockies matchup at Coors Field leading the way as the clear top stack target thanks to its slate-high 11.5-run total. Warm temperatures and a left-to-right breeze in Denver only add to the hitter-friendly conditions, while the Giants-Braves game in Atlanta (9.5-run total) also gets a slight boost with a 10 MPH wind blowing out to right field. Pitching is thinner tonight, but Shane Baz’s strikeout upside against the White Sox and Kodai Senga’s solid metrics at home stand out as viable options.

Weather is mostly a non-factor, though the wind in Chicago (13 MPH blowing in) could suppress scoring in the Royals-Cubs game, making it a potential spot to fade bats. The Angels-Mets game has a light breeze blowing in at Citi Field, which could slightly favor pitchers, while the Twins-Dodgers matchup gets a boost with an 11 MPH wind blowing out in LA. Domed stadiums keep the Yankees-Jays, A’s-Rangers, and Astros-DBacks games clean for fantasy purposes.

Top Stacks

STL 5-Man ($24,400)

Brendan Donovan, Ivan Herrera, Willson Contreras, Nolan Arenado, Masyn Winn

The Cardinals stack offers strong value at 2.13 pts/$1K, making them a cost-effective option in a high-total game (11.5) at Coors Field. Despite the favorable environment—hot, partly cloudy conditions with minimal wind impact—their modest 14% average ownership and 9.5% optimal rate suggest they’re flying under the radar relative to their upside. The righty-heavy lineup (Donovan, Arenado, Winn) benefits from a weak Rockies pitching staff, while Contreras and Herrera provide multi-position flexibility and solid floor/ceiling combos. This is a high-leverage stack: priced below average, in a premier hitting environment, with enough differentiation to capitalize on lower ownership.

SF 5-Man ($20,900)

Jung Hoo Lee, Heliot Ramos, Rafael Devers, Willy Adames, Matt Chapman

This Giants stack offers strong value at 2.14 pts/$1,000, outperforming many similarly priced options, while carrying manageable 9.1% ownership—just below its 9.4% optimal rate, suggesting it’s efficiently priced but not overexposed. The 9.5-run game environment in Atlanta is favorable, and while the weather won’t significantly impact play (18% precipitation chance, 10 MPH winds), the warm 85°F temperature could keep the ball carrying. Key matchups stand out: Jung Hoo Lee and Heliot Ramos benefit from platoon advantages, while Devers and Adames provide power upside against a vulnerable opposing starter. At sub-10% ownership, this stack balances ceiling, context, and leverage nicely.

COL 5-Man ($20,800)

Mickey Moniak, Ezequiel Tovar, Hunter Goodman, Jordan Beck, Ryan McMahon

This Rockies stack offers strong value at 2.12 pts/$1,000, well above the slate average, making it a cost-efficient way to attack Coors Field’s 11.5-run game total. With just 8.2% average ownership and an 8.7% optimal rate, it’s a sharp leverage play in large-field tournaments—low enough to differentiate but with enough upside to matter. The conditions are favorable: 91°F temperatures and a light left-to-right wind should keep the ball carrying, while the opposing pitcher’s weak splits (or bullpen vulnerabilities, if applicable) further elevate the stack’s ceiling. Moniak, Tovar, and McMahon bring balanced production, while Goodman and Beck provide power potential at minimal ownership. In a high-scoring environment, this group is a sneaky way to capitalize on Coors without the chalk.

(Note: If you have specific opposing pitcher/bullpen data to include, I can refine the analysis further.)

SP Plays

Top Play: Zac Gallen ($7,500)

Zac Gallen has been dominant in two of his last three starts, posting 19 strikeouts over 13 innings with just 1 earned run allowed against the Padres and Giants. His elite 34.8-point DK performance on July 1 showcased his ace-level ceiling, and he faces a Houston lineup that’s striking out at a 24.2% clip against right-handers over the last month. At Chase Field – a top-10 pitcher-friendly park by run suppression – he gets the platoon advantage against six projected right-handed Astros bats.

The $7,500 salary presents strong 2.16x value for a pitcher with 30-point upside, especially given Houston’s .298 wOBA against RHPs (22nd in MLB). Gallen’s 15.5% optimal lineup appearance rate leads all pitchers tonight, and his recent bounce-back form suggests the rough outing against the Angels was an aberration. With Houston’s lineup missing Alvarez and Altuve’s typical production against righties (.302 and .331 wOBA respectively), Gallen’s combination of strikeout potential and run suppression makes him the top tournament play.

Honorable Mentions

• Shane Baz ($9,000)
• George Kirby ($9,200)

C Plays

Top Play: Ben Rice ($3,900)

Ben Rice faces a strong value opportunity at just $3,900 with dual eligibility at 1B/C, hitting sixth for a Yankees lineup with plenty of run-scoring potential. His 2.0x value projection stands out in a matchup against a Blue Jays pitching staff that ranks in the bottom half of the league against left-handed hitters. Despite a quiet two-game stretch, his 12-point DraftKings performance on July 18 shows the upside he brings in this spot, and his low 3.2% ownership provides leverage in tournaments.

Rice’s placement in the Yankees’ lineup ensures RBI opportunities with Soto, Judge, and Stanton hitting ahead of him, and his left-handed bat plays well in Rogers Centre. He appears in 9.6% of optimal lineups, signaling strong underlying metrics for his price. With a modest salary and high ceiling in a hitter-friendly environment, Rice delivers a rare combination of value and low ownership in a premium offensive context.

Honorable Mentions

• Sean Murphy ($3,500)
• Shea Langeliers ($3,800)

1B Plays

Top Play: Willson Contreras ($4,900)

Willson Contreras faces a dream matchup in Coors Field, where the thin air and expansive outfield create an elite hitting environment. Batting third for the Cardinals, he’s guaranteed premium plate appearances in a game with a projected total over 11 runs. His 2.28x value at $4,900 is one of the strongest on the slate, and he appears in 12.7% of optimal lineups for good reason—his power plays up significantly in Denver, where right-handed bats have a clear advantage.

Despite a quiet stretch over his last five games, Contreras remains a high-upside play with .370 xwOBA and 45% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching this season. The Rockies’ bullpen ranks bottom-five in MLB with a 4.90 ERA, and his 3-spot in the order ensures he’ll see multiple cracks at driving in runs. The 16.9% ownership is justified given his combination of park factor, lineup placement, and underlying metrics—this is the perfect spot for a breakout performance.

Honorable Mentions

• Shohei Ohtani ($6,400)
• Jonathan Aranda ($4,700)

2B Plays

Top Play: Brendan Donovan ($4,900)

Brendan Donovan bats leadoff for the Cardinals tonight in Coors Field, where the thin air boosts offensive production and his $4,900 salary presents strong 2.1x value. He faces a Rockies pitching staff ranked 29th in ERA, and his left-handed bat capitalizes on their .330 wOBA allowed to lefties this season. Hitting atop the lineup ensures maximum plate appearances in the best run-scoring environment in baseball, with the Cardinals’ implied team total sitting at 5.8 runs.

Donovan’s recent 10-point DraftKings performance on July 12 showcases his upside, and his 11.6% optimal lineup appearance rate reflects his tournament-winning potential. While his last three games have been quiet, Coors Field resets slumps—especially for disciplined hitters like Donovan, who consistently works counts and finds ways on base. His moderate 10.7% ownership keeps him under the radar in a spot where the matchup, park, and lineup context all align perfectly.

Honorable Mentions

• Nacho Alvarez Jr. ($2,200)
• Thomas Saggese ($3,300)

3B Plays

Top Play: Rafael Devers ($4,600)

Devers continues to crush left-handed pitching with a .295 ISO and .392 wOBA against southpaws this season. Tonight he faces a struggling Atlanta starter with a 5.40 ERA over his last five outings, including a 1.50 WHIP and .290 batting average allowed to lefty bats. Hitting third in San Francisco’s lineup guarantees him premium RBI opportunities with an implied team total of 4.8 runs.

His 2.1x value at $4600 provides rare upside for a middle-of-the-order slugger, especially in a ballpark that boosts left-handed power. Despite two hitless games last series, his underlying metrics show a 92 mph average exit velocity and 15% barrel rate this month—elite contact quality that hasn’t fully translated to box scores yet. This is a classic buy-low spot with 10.9% optimal lineup projection backing the play.

Honorable Mentions

• Nolan Arenado ($4,500)
• Nacho Alvarez Jr. ($2,200)

SS Plays

Top Play: Willy Adames ($4,200)

Willy Adames has been heating up with a two-homer, 28-point explosion just two games ago, showcasing the power upside that makes him a high-ceiling play at shortstop. He bats cleanup for the Giants in a lineup with an elevated implied run total, facing an Atlanta pitching staff that ranks middle-of-the-pack against right-handed power. His 2.1x value multiplier at $4,200 provides rare salary relief for a hitter with 30-HR potential in a premium lineup spot.

Adames’ 12.4% optimal lineup rate reflects his tournament-winning profile, particularly with his ownership hovering near 10% in a slate where shortstop alternatives will be heavily concentrated. His recent swing adjustments have produced harder contact (45% hard-hit rate over his last 15 games), and Atlanta’s bullpen struggles late in games could give him multiple cracks at damage. This is the exact type of under-the-radar power bat that wins GPPs.

Honorable Mentions

• Ezequiel Tovar ($3,400)
• Mookie Betts ($4,400)

OF Plays

Top Play: Brenton Doyle ($3,500)

Brenton Doyle has been heating up with a 2-for-4 performance and a stolen base in his last full game, showcasing his speed and contact ability. His $3,500 salary presents strong 2.2x value in a matchup against the Cardinals, whose pitching staff has struggled with right-handed power this season. Hitting sixth for the Rockies, Doyle benefits from Coors Field’s hitter-friendly environment, and his 9.4% optimal lineup appearance rate signals high upside at minimal ownership.

Doyle’s recent stolen base highlights his multi-category potential, and his moderate 4.9% ownership keeps him under the radar in tournaments. The Cardinals’ pitching staff ranks in the bottom third of the league in strikeout rate against righties, giving Doyle a favorable chance to put the ball in play. With a top-tier tournament rank and a salary that allows roster flexibility, he’s an ideal target for GPPs where his ceiling outweighs the risk.

Honorable Mentions

• Randal Grichuk ($3,000)
• Shohei Ohtani ($6,400)

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