FREE 07/22 MLB Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s 10-game slate has plenty of offense to target, but weather could be a factor in multiple spots. The Rockies-Cardinals game at Coors Field leads the way with a 12-run total, though the 57% chance of rain in Denver raises some concerns. The White Sox-Rays matchup also carries significant risk with a 70% chance of rain in Tampa, while Atlanta’s game against the Giants has a 34% chance of precipitation. On the flip side, the Angels-Mets game in Flushing has a slight wind boost (8 MPH right to left), and the Dodgers-Twins matchup features 13 MPH winds blowing out at Dodger Stadium.

Pitching-wise, Jacob deGrom stands out as the top option against the light-hitting A’s in a dome, while the Yankees-Jays game (9-run total) could see fireworks with two inconsistent starters. The Cubs-Royals game in Chicago has a 9-run total and favorable hitting conditions with 13 MPH winds blowing out, making it a sneaky stack spot. Just keep an eye on those weather reports—Coors and Tampa are the biggest question marks tonight.

Top Stacks

STL 5-Man ($24,300)

Brendan Donovan, Ivan Herrera, Willson Contreras, Nolan Arenado, Masyn Winn

The Cardinals stack offers strong value at 2.13 pts/$1000, making them a cost-efficient play in a high-total (12.0) road matchup at Coors Field, despite the looming rain risk (57% chance). While their modest 13.9% ownership and 9.3% optimal rate suggest they’re not a priority for the field, the environment is undeniably favorable: Denver’s thin air boosts offense, and the wind (3 mph L-R) could aid right-handed power like Arenado and Contreras. The lefty-heavy group—Donovan, Herrera, and Winn—also benefits from facing a vulnerable Rockies pitching staff. The weather is a concern, but if the game plays, this stack delivers upside at lower chalk than typical Coors bats.

SF 5-Man ($20,400)

Jung Hoo Lee, Heliot Ramos, Rafael Devers, Willy Adames, Mike Yastrzemski

The Giants stack offers strong value at 2.19 pts/$1k, making them a cost-efficient option in a high-total (9.5) game, though the 34% rain risk in Atlanta adds volatility. At just 8.7% average ownership—below their 7.5% optimal rate—they’re a sneaky pivot off chalkier teams, with Devers and Adames providing power upside against a middling Braves pitching staff. The warm temps (88° F) and light LF wind could aid fly balls, but monitor weather updates closely; a delay would sink their viability. Solid tournament play if the game clears.

LAD 5-Man ($23,900)

Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani, Will Smith, Freddie Freeman, Teoscar Hernandez

The Dodgers stack (Betts, Ohtani, Smith, Freeman, Hernandez) offers strong value at 1.95 pts/$1K, making them a cost-efficient play despite their premium salaries. Their modest 7.0% ownership and 7.5% optimal rate suggest they’re slightly overlooked relative to their upside, which is key in large-field tournaments. The 8.0-run game total and 13 MPH wind blowing out at Dodger Stadium create a favorable environment, especially against a below-average lefty (if applicable, though the opposing pitcher isn’t specified here). This group’s elite power and on-base skills are primed to capitalize—weather and matchup align for a sneaky high-ceiling night.

SP Plays

Top Play: Jacob deGrom ($9,800)

Jacob deGrom has been dominant in three of his last four starts, including a 7-inning, 1-hit shutout with 7 strikeouts against Baltimore on June 25. His 2.17x value at $9,800 makes him one of the most efficient SP plays on the slate, and his 11.8 K/9 over the past month gives him elite strikeout upside against an ATH lineup that ranks bottom-5 in wRC+ against right-handed pitching.

The Rangers’ ace appears in 22.1% of optimal lineups for a reason—he combines a high floor (five straight starts with 18+ DraftKings points) with explosive ceiling potential (32.0 points in his last dominant outing). Facing a weak ATH offense in a pitcher-friendly park, deGrom’s elite swing-and-miss stuff (31% whiff rate on his slider) sets up perfectly for another high-strikeout performance at a salary that still leaves room for premium bats.

Honorable Mentions

• Yoshinobu Yamamoto ($9,600)
• Logan Gilbert ($9,200)

C Plays

Top Play: Ben Rice ($4,100)

Ben Rice faces a vulnerable Toronto pitching staff while holding strong value upside at just $4,100. His 1.88x salary multiplier ranks among the top plays at first base, and his 6th spot in the Yankees’ lineup consistently puts him in scoring position for one of baseball’s best offenses. Despite two hitless games, his 2-for-4 performance on July 18 shows he can produce when given opportunities, and Toronto’s pitching has struggled against left-handed hitters all season.

Rice’s 10.9% optimal lineup appearance rate reflects his high-ceiling potential in tournaments, yet his 4.7% ownership keeps him under the radar. The Yankees’ implied run total projects well against Toronto’s pitching, and Rice’s dual eligibility at 1B/C adds lineup flexibility. His left-handed bat plays up in this matchup, making him a low-cost, high-reward option with legitimate multi-hit upside in a premium offensive environment.

Honorable Mentions

• Pedro Pages ($3,600)
• Yainer Diaz ($3,300)

1B Plays

Top Play: Willson Contreras ($4,900)

Willson Contreras is locked in with a 3-for-5 performance including a 443-foot homer and a double in Monday’s game at Coors Field. His move to first base hasn’t slowed his bat, as he’s now 5-for-15 with three extra-base hits since the All-Star break, and hitting third in the Cardinals lineup ensures he’ll see plenty of RBI opportunities in this elite scoring environment.

Contreras faces a Rockies pitching staff that ranks bottom-five in ERA and HRs allowed, and Coors Field’s hitter-friendly conditions amplify his power upside. At just $4,900 with a 2.2x value multiplier and a top-two tournament rank, his combination of recent form, premium lineup spot, and matchup makes him a near-must play despite the elevated ownership.

Honorable Mentions

• Shohei Ohtani ($6,400)
• Christian Walker ($3,200)

2B Plays

Top Play: Brendan Donovan ($5,000)

Brendan Donovan bats leadoff for the Cardinals in Coors Field, where the thin air boosts offensive production for left-handed hitters. He’s priced at just $5,000 with a 2.15x value multiplier, making him one of the strongest point-per-dollar plays on the slate. Hitting atop the order guarantees him extra at-bats in the best run environment in baseball, and his 9.4% optimal lineup rate reflects his high ceiling in this spot.

Donovan already showed his comfort in Colorado with a 12-point performance yesterday, and he faces a Rockies pitching staff that ranks 29th in MLB with a 5.20 team ERA. His patient approach (career .381 OBP vs. RHP) plays perfectly against a staff that struggles with command, and his multi-hit upside is amplified by Coors’ inflated hit rates. At 13.3% ownership, he’s a staple in GPP builds with tournament-winning potential.

Honorable Mentions

• Brice Matthews ($2,100)
• Jose Altuve ($4,300)

3B Plays

Top Play: Rafael Devers ($4,600)

Rafael Devers continues to deliver consistent production from the heart of Boston’s lineup, batting third in a potent offense. Despite a couple of quiet games, he’s still making hard contact with multiple hits in two of his last five games, including a 10-point DK performance against Atlanta just two days ago. Tonight’s rematch against the Braves puts him in another favorable spot—their pitching staff has struggled against left-handed power, and Devers’ .380 xwOBA against righties this season aligns perfectly with this opportunity.

Devers’ 2.2x value at $4,600 is one of the strongest plays at third base, especially with his optimal lineup rate (11.5%) far outpacing his projected ownership (10.7%). The matchup and lineup context give him both floor and ceiling upside—he’s hitting in the middle of a Red Sox team with an elevated implied run total, and his ability to drive in runs or score in bunches makes him a must-consider GPP option. The price point allows for easy roster construction, and his track record in high-leverage spots makes him a reliable anchor for any DFS lineup.

Honorable Mentions

• Garrett Hampson ($3,100)
• Matt Chapman ($4,000)

SS Plays

Top Play: Ezequiel Tovar ($3,300)

Ezequiel Tovar has been heating up with a 3-hit, 2-run, 1-HR, 3-RBI performance just two games ago, showcasing his ability to deliver explosive fantasy production. At just $3,300, he offers elite 2.4x value in a Coors Field matchup against a Cardinals pitching staff that ranks bottom-10 in ERA against right-handed bats. His 6th spot in the Rockies lineup provides ample RBI opportunities in a game with a projected run total among the highest on the slate.

Tovar faces a vulnerable right-handed starter with a 5.00+ ERA over his last five outings, and Coors Field boosts righty power by 15% compared to league average. His 9.5% ownership is nearly double the field average, but the upside justifies the popularity – he’s appearing in nearly 9% of optimal lineups for good reason. With shortstop being a thin position tonight, his salary and power-speed combo make him a top-tier tournament play.

Honorable Mentions

• Masyn Winn ($4,500)
• Dansby Swanson ($3,700)

OF Plays

Top Play: Jordan Walker ($3,700)

Jordan Walker has been heating up with hits in three of his last four games, including a pair of multi-hit performances. His 10.0 and 12.0 DraftKings point outings in Colorado show immediate comfort in Coors Field’s elite hitting environment, and his $3,700 salary delivers strong 2.47x value in a game with a sky-high run total. Batting sixth for St. Louis, he benefits from lineup protection and RBI opportunities in a park where right-handed power plays up.

Walker faces a Rockies pitching staff that ranks bottom-five in ERA and has allowed the most runs in baseball. His recent swing adjustments are yielding harder contact, and Coors Field’s thin air amplifies his already impressive raw power. With an optimal lineup rate near 9% and ownership at just 11.2%, he combines ceiling, context, and leverage in a way few bats at this price point can match.

Honorable Mentions

• Seiya Suzuki ($5,100)
• Mickey Moniak ($4,200)

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