FREE 07/24 MLB Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s compact 4-game slate presents some intriguing matchup dynamics across different environments. The Athletics-Astros game in Houston’s dome removes weather variables entirely, while we’ve got contrasting conditions elsewhere with Detroit expecting 89° temperatures and St. Louis hitting 94° - both favorable for offensive production. The Padres-Cardinals matchup features two veteran arms in Yu Darvish and Sonny Gray, creating an interesting pitching decision point for tournament play.

Weather conditions add another layer to tonight’s slate construction. Detroit’s 15 MPH crosswind could suppress some power upside in the Blue Jays-Tigers game, while Anaheim offers a nice 10 MPH wind blowing out that should benefit both Seattle and Angels hitters. The extreme heat in St. Louis combined with minimal wind creates a sneaky environment for the ball to carry, making that total worth monitoring as we get closer to lock. Jason Alexander’s spot start for Houston immediately jumps out as a potential target for Athletics stacks.

Top Stacks

LAA 5-Man ($23,000)

Zach Neto, Nolan Schanuel, Mike Trout, Taylor Ward, Jo Adell

This Angels stack delivers solid value at 1.92 points per $1000 while carrying moderate ownership at 20.3%, making it a viable tournament play with decent differentiation potential. The 17.2% optimal rate suggests this lineup construction holds merit, particularly when you consider the favorable hitting environment in Anaheim tonight. Clear skies, 76-degree temps, and a 10 MPH wind blowing out create prime conditions for offensive production, which could boost this stack’s ceiling significantly. At $23,000, you’re getting exposure to the heart of LA’s order including Trout and Ward, while the lower-salried pieces like Neto and Adell provide the salary relief needed to pay up elsewhere. The ownership level sits in that sweet spot where you’re not completely contrarian but also not following the chalk, giving you a reasonable path to leverage if the Angels’ offense erupts in these wind-aided conditions.

ATH 5-Man ($21,600)

Lawrence Butler, Jacob Wilson, Nick Kurtz, Brent Rooker, Shea Langeliers

This Oakland Athletics stack delivers solid value at 1.99 points per $1000 with a reasonable $21,600 salary allocation across five bats. The ownership sits at a manageable 15.7%, while the 16.9% optimal rate suggests this lineup construction slightly outperformed field expectations, indicating sharp money recognized the stack’s potential. Butler, Wilson, Rooker, and company present an intriguing mid-tier play that avoids the heavy chalk while maintaining upside through Oakland’s core offensive contributors. The domed environment eliminates weather variables, creating stable playing conditions that support consistent offensive output. At this ownership level, the stack provides differentiation without venturing into contrarian territory, making it an appealing tournament play when seeking balanced exposure to Oakland’s lineup. The slight edge in optimal rate over ownership percentage suggests this combination offered better correlation and scoring potential than the field initially recognized.

HOU 5-Man ($19,300)

Cam Smith, Jose Altuve, Victor Caratini, Christian Walker, Yainer Diaz

This Houston stack delivers solid value at 2.00 points per $1000 while carrying manageable ownership at 11.8%, creating a favorable risk-reward profile for tournament play. The 14.0% optimal rate suggests this combination outperformed its modest ownership, indicating the market undervalued this particular grouping of Astros hitters. At $19,300, this stack leaves substantial salary flexibility to target premium pitching or high-upside plays elsewhere in your lineup. The combination of Smith, Altuve, Caratini, Walker, and Diaz provides exposure to multiple lineup spots without breaking the bank, while the domed stadium environment eliminates any weather-related concerns that could derail offensive production. The positive optimal rate differential of 2.2% over ownership makes this an analytically sound tournament stack that likely benefited from Houston’s offensive ceiling in a controlled environment.

SP Plays

Top Play: Yusei Kikuchi ($8,300)

Kikuchi’s recent outings paint a picture of a pitcher hitting his stride at exactly the right moment. That dominant 12-strikeout shutout against Boston on June 25th wasn’t a fluke - it represented the ceiling we’re seeing glimpses of in his subsequent starts. Even when he’s not completely sharp, like his 18.5-point effort against Philadelphia, he’s finding ways to generate fantasy value through solid strikeout rates and innings accumulation.

The southpaw brings tremendous tournament upside at a reasonable salary, creating an intriguing decision point given his projected ownership. While over half the field will roster him, his 1.9x value multiplier and 33.8% optimal lineup inclusion rate suggest the popular play might actually be the correct play. Seattle’s offense provides enough strikeout potential to justify the chalk, and Kikuchi’s recent form indicates he’s capable of separating from the field even when heavily owned.

Honorable Mentions

• Sonny Gray ($9,500)
• Luis Severino ($6,000)

C Plays

Top Play: Logan O’Hoppe ($3,500)

This matchup sets up beautifully for O’Hoppe behind the plate, particularly against Seattle’s pitching staff that has shown vulnerability to right-handed contact. The catcher position often gets overlooked in DFS construction, but O’Hoppe’s recent hot streak - including that explosive 22-point performance with a homer and stolen base against the Mets - demonstrates his ability to contribute across multiple categories. His three-hit game just two nights later reinforces that this isn’t just random variance.

At $3,500, O’Hoppe represents one of the slate’s premier value plays with legitimate upside potential. His moderate ownership projection keeps him off the radar of most casual players, creating excellent leverage opportunities in tournaments. The seventh spot in the Angels’ order might seem concerning, but it actually provides more RBI opportunities when the top of the lineup reaches base, and his recent stolen base shows he’s aggressive on the basepaths when opportunities arise.

Honorable Mentions

• Yainer Diaz ($3,400)
• Victor Caratini ($3,700)

1B Plays

Top Play: Nick Kurtz ($4,900)

Raw talent meets opportunity in Kurtz’s profile, as the young first baseman showcases exactly why he was so highly regarded coming through the system. His bat-to-ball skills have translated seamlessly to the major league level, evidenced by that gorgeous five-game stretch where he’s compiled 9 hits across 18 at-bats with multiple extra-base hits. The power stroke is clearly legitimate - those two home runs in recent games carried serious exit velocity and distance.

Hitting third in Oakland’s lineup puts Kurtz in an ideal position to rack up RBI opportunities, especially in what projects as a higher-scoring environment in Houston. The 1.99x value multiplier at $4,900 creates significant salary relief while maintaining ceiling potential that can separate lineups. His left-handed swing should play well against Houston’s probable starter, and the moderate ownership levels mean you won’t need to fade a chalky play to gain leverage.

Honorable Mentions

• LaMonte Wade Jr. ($2,200)
• Christian Walker ($3,600)

2B Plays

Top Play: Jose Altuve ($4,600)

Tonight’s game environment in Houston couldn’t be more favorable for offensive explosion, with weather conditions and ballpark factors aligning perfectly for run production. Altuve thrives in these high-scoring affairs where his table-setting abilities from the two-hole become amplified by the hitters behind him. The veteran second baseman looked locked in during that Seattle series, particularly the 19-point outburst where he collected three hits and scored twice.

The Hall of Fame-bound infielder brings a rare combination of floor and ceiling that’s difficult to find at his salary level. His recent contact quality has been exceptional, and batting second in what should be Houston’s most productive lineup configuration gives him multiple opportunities for counting stats. At 1.8x value with nearly 20% optimal lineup inclusion, Altuve represents the type of steady, proven commodity that can anchor tournament rosters while others chase more volatile plays.

Honorable Mentions

• Ernie Clement ($3,200)
• Jorge Polanco ($3,500)

3B Plays

Top Play: Addison Barger ($4,300)

Here’s where smart DFS players can gain serious leverage - Barger’s ownership projection sitting barely above field average despite ranking first at his position creates an obvious edge opportunity. The young utility player has quietly been one of Toronto’s most consistent contributors, stringing together quality at-bats and showing impressive plate discipline for a player with limited big league experience. His four-hit explosion against San Francisco demonstrated the contact skills that made him a prospect to watch.

Barger’s $4,300 salary point provides crucial roster flexibility while maintaining legitimate scoring upside, especially batting fifth in a Toronto lineup that’s been more productive than expected. The matchup in Detroit should favor his left-handed swing, and his positional flexibility adds roster construction benefits. That 20.7% optimal lineup rate combined with modest ownership creates the exact type of leverage spot that separates winning tournament entries from the field.

Honorable Mentions

• Ernie Clement ($3,200)
• Yoan Moncada ($4,100)

SS Plays

Top Play: Zach Neto ($5,300)

Don’t let the recent cold stretch fool you - Neto remains one of the slate’s most compelling plays despite a rough series against the Mets. The young shortstop’s approach and swing decisions haven’t changed; sometimes baseball just delivers stretches where good swings find gloves instead of gaps. That explosive 19-point performance against Philadelphia, featuring multiple hits and a stolen base, better represents his true talent level and fantasy ceiling.

Leading off for the Angels puts Neto in prime position for counting stats, particularly runs scored in what should be a favorable offensive environment. His speed element adds a dimension that most shortstops at this salary level simply can’t match, creating additional scoring avenues beyond traditional hitting metrics. The elevated ownership might seem concerning, but his spot atop the order and proven track record justify the popularity - sometimes the chalk is chalk for good reason.

Honorable Mentions

• Jacob Wilson ($3,800)
• J.P. Crawford ($3,200)

OF Plays

Top Play: Mike Trout ($5,000)

The Fish is swimming in favorable currents right now, riding a nine-game on-base streak that includes some absolutely scorching offensive numbers. Trout’s recent power surge, punctuated by Wednesday’s solo blast for his 18th homer, reminds us why he remains one of baseball’s most dangerous hitters even in what’s been a down season by his standards. That .991 OPS during his current hot streak represents vintage Trout production.

What makes this play particularly compelling is the salary discount - $5,000 for a player of Trout’s caliber feels like a pricing error, especially given his recent form and favorable matchup. Hitting third in the Angels’ order maximizes his RBI opportunities, and Seattle’s pitching staff has shown enough vulnerability to make Trout’s power upside very much in play. The high ownership reflects public recognition of his value, but when a generational talent is priced this reasonably while swinging a hot bat, sometimes you simply ride the wave.

Honorable Mentions

• Lawrence Butler ($4,300)
• Brent Rooker ($4,600)

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