FREE 07/25 MLB Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s 13-game slate presents some interesting opportunities despite weather concerns hanging over several key matchups. The Phillies-Yankees game carries the highest rain risk at 56%, while Kansas City (41%) and Boston (33%) also face potential delays that could impact lineup construction. On the positive side, we’ve got favorable wind conditions in New York and San Francisco with 9-10 MPH gusts blowing out, plus clear skies in the domed stadiums in Texas and Houston where weather won’t be a factor.

The pitching landscape offers some intriguing contrasts, with proven arms like Jose Berrios and Shota Imanaga squaring off against less reliable options such as Will Warren and Adrian Houser. The Rockies traveling to Baltimore’s heat (93°F) creates an interesting dynamic with Kyle Freeland on the road, while the late West Coast games provide solid backup options if weather forces lineup pivots. Keep close tabs on the radar throughout the evening, as several games could see meaningful lineup changes if precipitation moves in.

Top Stacks

LAD 5-Man ($24,000)

Shohei Ohtani, Will Smith, Freddie Freeman, Teoscar Hernandez, Andy Pages

This Dodgers stack delivers solid value at 2.00 points per $1000 despite the premium $24,000 price tag, anchored by Ohtani’s elite upside and supported by proven run producers in Freeman, Smith, and Hernandez. The 7.6% ownership sits perfectly in line with the 7.4% optimal rate, indicating sharp money recognizes this stack’s tournament potential without it becoming overly chalky. The game environment in Boston sets up favorably with 85-degree temperatures that should help carry balls, while the modest 8 MPH wind blowing left to right creates a neutral-to-positive hitting environment. The 33% rain chance introduces some risk, but if this game plays as scheduled, you’re getting a balanced mix of ceiling and floor from LA’s top-tier offense at reasonable ownership levels that won’t kill your leverage in GPPs.

BAL 5-Man ($20,700)

Jackson Holliday, Jordan Westburg, Gunnar Henderson, Ramon Laureano, Tyler O’Neill

This Baltimore stack presents solid tournament value at 2.24 points per $1000, while the 9.5% ownership rate significantly exceeds its 6.9% optimal lineup appearance, suggesting the public is overvaluing this combination. The $20,700 salary commitment is substantial but gets you exposure to a potent Orioles lineup featuring Henderson and the emerging Holliday alongside proven veterans O’Neill and Laureano. Tonight’s game environment in Baltimore looks hitter-friendly with 93-degree temperatures and minimal wind impact at just 6 mph, though the 23% precipitation chance bears monitoring. The ownership-to-optimal gap indicates this stack may be chalky without the corresponding upside, making it a fade candidate in larger tournaments where differentiation becomes crucial for taking down GPPs.

NYY 5-Man ($25,200)

Trent Grisham, Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger, Giancarlo Stanton, Jazz Chisholm Jr.

This Yankees stack delivers solid value at 2.00 points per $1000 while carrying moderate ownership at 9.7%, making it an appealing contrarian play given its 6.5% optimal rate suggests it’s being underutilized in winning lineups. The $25,200 investment spreads across five of New York’s most dangerous bats, headlined by Judge and supported by the power trio of Bellinger, Stanton, and the versatile Chisholm Jr., with Grisham providing salary relief at the top of the order. Tonight’s game environment in New York presents both opportunity and risk – the 88-degree temperature and 9 MPH winds blowing out create favorable hitting conditions, but the 56% rain chance introduces postponement risk that’s likely suppressing ownership and creating leverage for those willing to roster this stack. The combination of reasonable pricing, lower-than-expected ownership, and potentially game-script advantageous weather makes this Yankees stack a compelling tournament play.

SP Plays

Top Play: Logan Webb ($9,300)

Webb’s recent outings tell a tale of ups and downs, but his underlying skills remain elite against a Mets lineup that struggles with quality right-handed pitching. After a tough showing against Toronto where he surrendered 11 hits, Webb bounced back with solid performances that showcased his signature sinker and changeup combination. The Giants ace has demonstrated remarkable consistency at home this season, and his ability to induce weak contact should play well against New York’s aggressive approach.

The 1.9x value multiplier makes Webb an attractive play despite the elevated ownership at 26.9%. His appearance in nearly 15% of optimal lineups suggests the advanced metrics strongly favor his upside in this spot. Webb’s track record against teams with similar offensive profiles to the Mets shows he can deliver both the safe floor and tournament-winning ceiling that DFS players seek from premium pitching options.

Honorable Mentions

• Zebby Matthews ($7,100)
• Dean Kremer ($8,000)

C Plays

Top Play: Victor Caratini ($3,400)

Houston’s versatile backstop presents compelling matchup advantages against an Athletics pitching staff that has struggled mightily with left-handed hitting this season. Caratini’s recent three-hit, three-RBI explosion against Arizona demonstrates the offensive ceiling that makes him such an intriguing tournament play. Oakland’s bullpen ranks among the worst in baseball against opposite-handed batters, creating multiple scoring opportunities throughout this contest.

At just $3,400, Caratini offers exceptional roster construction flexibility while batting in the heart of Houston’s potent lineup. His dual eligibility at catcher and first base provides additional lineup building options, and the modest 3.6% projected ownership creates significant leverage opportunities. The Athletics’ propensity to fall behind early could lead to extended at-bats for Caratini in favorable run-scoring situations.

Honorable Mentions

• Ryan Jeffers ($4,000)
• J.T. Realmuto ($3,600)

1B Plays

Top Play: Shohei Ohtani ($6,500)

Raw power meets elite plate discipline in baseball’s most dynamic offensive force, and Ohtani’s recent five-game home run streak showcases exactly why he remains must-consider despite the premium salary. His combination of 40+ home run pace and improved stolen base frequency creates multiple paths to ceiling performances that few players can match. The sophisticated approach that allows him to work deep counts translates to more opportunities against Boston’s inconsistent bullpen.

Fenway Park’s dimensions favor Ohtani’s pull-side power, particularly with his improved launch angle metrics over the past month. Leading off for the Dodgers guarantees maximum plate appearances, while his 1.9x value rating suggests the pricing hasn’t caught up to his current hot streak. The 12.4% ownership provides reasonable leverage in tournaments, especially considering his appearance in nearly 16% of optimal lineup constructions.

Honorable Mentions

• Freddie Freeman ($4,300)
• Christian Walker ($3,200)

2B Plays

Top Play: Jordan Westburg ($4,600)

Camden Yards should be buzzing when Colorado’s pitching-challenged rotation takes the mound against Baltimore’s resurgent offense, creating an ideal environment for Westburg to shine in the two-hole. The ballpark’s favorable dimensions for right-handed power align perfectly with his recent swing adjustments, while Colorado’s struggles away from Coors Field have been particularly pronounced against contact-oriented middle infielders. Weather conditions and wind patterns favor offensive production in this evening contest.

Westburg’s 2.1x value rating reflects strong underlying metrics that aren’t fully captured in his recent box scores, where he’s consistently reached base despite modest DraftKings totals. His position in Baltimore’s lineup ensures opportunities with runners in scoring position, especially against a Rockies staff that ranks poorly in high-leverage situations. The 10.1% ownership feels reasonable for a player appearing in over 10% of optimal lineups, particularly given his multi-position eligibility and favorable park factors.

Honorable Mentions

• Matt McLain ($4,200)
• Jackson Holliday ($3,900)

3B Plays

Top Play: Junior Caminero ($4,900)

Exceptional value rarely comes packaged with this much upside potential, but Caminero’s $4,900 price tag creates immediate roster construction advantages while offering legitimate 30+ point ceiling. His recent three-RBI homer against Chicago exemplifies the raw power that makes him dangerous against Cincinnati’s fly-ball prone pitching staff. The Rays have strategically elevated him to the cleanup spot, recognizing his ability to drive in runs during crucial situations.

Tampa Bay’s analytical approach suggests they see advanced metrics in Caminero that support increased opportunity, and his 9% projected ownership provides excellent leverage for tournament play. Cincinnati’s bullpen has been particularly vulnerable to right-handed power, creating late-game upside scenarios beyond the starting pitcher matchup. The 2.0x value multiplier combined with his appearance in optimal lineups makes him an essential consideration for balanced roster construction.

Honorable Mentions

• Alex Bregman ($4,500)
• Manny Machado ($4,800)

SS Plays

Top Play: Elly De La Cruz ($5,700)

Speed kills in DFS, and De La Cruz possesses game-breaking stolen base upside that few players can replicate, especially at his reasonable salary point. Despite recent offensive struggles, his ability to impact games through multiple statistical categories keeps his floor stable while maintaining explosive ceiling potential. Tampa Bay’s pitching staff has shown vulnerability to left-handed speed, and De La Cruz’s aggressive baserunning style should create chaos on the basepaths.

Cincinnati’s home ballpark favors his specific skill set, particularly his ability to leg out infield hits that can quickly turn into stolen base opportunities. The 7.4% projected ownership feels light for a player who can single-handedly change tournament outcomes with one stolen base and run scored combination. His recent walk rate improvements suggest better plate discipline, which directly correlates to more baserunning opportunities and higher floor outcomes.

Honorable Mentions

• Trevor Story ($3,700)
• Gunnar Henderson ($4,700)

OF Plays

Top Play: Tyler O’Neill ($3,300)

Baltimore’s outfield masher represents the slate’s premier value play, with his microscopic $3,300 salary creating massive roster flexibility while maintaining legitimate power upside against Colorado’s struggling rotation. O’Neill’s ability to turn on mistake pitches has been evident throughout his career, and the Rockies away from Coors Field have served up plenty of hittable offerings to opposing right-handed bats. His recent two-hit performance against Cleveland demonstrates the contact improvements that make him more than just a boom-or-bust option.

The staggering 2.8x value multiplier speaks to advanced projections that see significant upside in this matchup, while his 9.6% ownership provides reasonable leverage without being completely contrarian. Batting fifth in Baltimore’s potent lineup ensures RBI opportunities, particularly against a Colorado bullpen that has struggled in middle relief situations. O’Neill’s combination of power ceiling and salary relief makes him an essential building block for tournament lineups seeking optimal roster construction.

Honorable Mentions

• Aaron Judge ($6,400)
• Jarren Duran ($4,200)

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