FREE 07/29 MLB Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s 12-game slate presents some compelling offensive environments with several games offering favorable hitting conditions. The Rangers-Angels matchup in Anaheim catches attention with winds blowing out at 8 MPH, while Kansas City also features wind blowing out to potentially boost offensive numbers. The Phillies-White Sox game looks appealing despite an 18% chance of precipitation in Chicago, as the wind direction favors right-handed power with gusts blowing right to left.

Weather conditions remain mostly clear across the slate, though we’ll want to monitor that precipitation chance in Chicago as game time approaches. The heat factor plays a role tonight with temperatures reaching 94 degrees in both New York and Kansas City, which typically benefits offensive production. The Dodgers-Reds game in Cincinnati offers solid conditions with clear skies and minimal wind interference, while the domed stadiums in Milwaukee and Houston eliminate any weather concerns for those contests.

Top Stacks

LAD 5-Man ($23,900)

Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani, Will Smith, Freddie Freeman, Teoscar Hernandez

This LAD stack delivers solid value at 2.10 points per $1000 despite the premium $23,900 price tag for five elite bats. The 9.9% average ownership sits comfortably above the 8.2% optimal rate, suggesting the public is appropriately valuing this stack without creating massive leverage opportunities. The lineup construction makes sense from a ceiling perspective, stacking the heart of the Dodgers’ order with Betts, Ohtani, Freeman, and Smith providing the core run-producing upside, while Hernandez adds salary relief without sacrificing production. The game environment in Cincinnati favors offense with 89-degree temperatures, clear skies, and minimal wind impact, creating conditions where this premium stack can justify its salary through multi-run innings. While the ownership levels don’t scream contrarian play, the stack’s mathematical efficiency and favorable hitting conditions make it a fundamentally sound tournament construction.

SEA 5-Man ($25,600)

J.P. Crawford, Julio Rodriguez, Cal Raleigh, Josh Naylor, Randy Arozarena

This Mariners stack presents solid tournament value at 1.85 points per $1000, particularly given its 5.5% average ownership rate that falls below its 7.3% optimal lineup appearance. The $25,600 investment spreads across five quality bats including Julio Rodriguez and newly-acquired pieces like Naylor and Arozarena, creating a balanced salary allocation that doesn’t force you into minimum plays elsewhere. The ownership discount becomes especially attractive when you consider this group is showing up in winning lineups at a higher rate than the field is rostering them. Playing conditions in West Sacramento favor offensive production with clear skies, 87-degree temperatures, and minimal wind interference at 9 MPH. This stack offers the dual benefit of solid projected production and contrarian appeal, making it an intriguing pivot away from chalkier offensive environments while maintaining upside potential across multiple lineup spots.

SF 5-Man ($19,800)

Heliot Ramos, Rafael Devers, Willy Adames, Matt Chapman, Wilmer Flores

This Giants stack presents solid tournament value at 2.03 points per $1000 with notably low public ownership at just 4.9%, creating an exploitable gap given its 7.0% optimal rate. The $19,800 salary allocation allows for premium pitching or complementary bats elsewhere in your lineup while still accessing five hitters from what should be a productive San Francisco offense. The weather conditions at Oracle Park favor offensive production tonight, with clear skies, mild 62-degree temperatures, and crucially, 10 MPH winds blowing out toward the bay. This wind direction neutralizes Oracle’s typically pitcher-friendly dimensions and could turn routine fly balls into extra-base hits. The ownership discrepancy suggests the public is undervaluing this stack’s ceiling, particularly in GPP formats where the combination of low rostered players and favorable environmental conditions creates legitimate differentiation upside.

SP Plays

Top Play: Michael Soroka ($7,600)

Michael Soroka’s recent trajectory shows a pitcher finding his rhythm at exactly the right time. His last outing against Cincinnati was vintage Soroka - 5.2 innings of two-hit ball with six strikeouts, generating 18.0 DraftKings points and demonstrating the control that made him a standout before injuries derailed his career. The right-hander has now posted quality starts in three of his last five appearances, with only that brutal Boston game (nine hits, seven runs) serving as an outlier in an otherwise encouraging stretch.

Houston presents a fascinating matchup for Soroka’s ground-ball heavy approach, as the Astros have struggled against sinker-ball specialists this season. At $7,600, he’s priced below elite arms but carries legitimate ace upside, especially given his 2.17x value projection. While 18.1% ownership might seem high, Soroka’s ceiling remains massive in this spot, and his recent form suggests he’s ready to deliver another dominant performance that could separate your lineup from the field.

Honorable Mentions

• Tyler Glasnow ($9,200)
• Jesus Luzardo ($9,500)

C Plays

Top Play: Will Smith ($4,500)

The catching position often becomes an afterthought in DFS construction, but Will Smith at $4,500 represents a legitimate weapon disguised as roster filler. Facing Cincinnati’s struggling pitching staff, Smith enters this matchup batting third in one of baseball’s most explosive lineups, giving him premium RBI opportunities that most catchers simply don’t possess. His recent 8.0-point performance against Boston showcased his ability to contribute even without the long ball, collecting two hits and a run while providing the steady production that makes him a cornerstone play.

Cincinnati’s pitching staff has been particularly vulnerable to right-handed bats this season, and Smith’s patient approach should generate favorable counts throughout this contest. The 2.19x value projection reflects his unique position in the Dodgers’ loaded offense, where he consistently finds himself in high-leverage situations with runners in scoring position. At moderate ownership levels of 10.8%, Smith offers the perfect blend of safety and upside that allows you to pay up elsewhere in your lineup while maintaining excellent production at the catching spot.

Honorable Mentions

• J.T. Realmuto ($3,700)
• Salvador Perez ($4,100)

1B Plays

Top Play: Kody Clemens ($3,100)

Raw talent meets opportunity in Kody Clemens’ profile, creating one of the slate’s most intriguing value plays at just $3,100. The versatile infielder possesses legitimate power potential - evident in his ability to turn on mistakes - while offering positional flexibility that makes roster construction significantly easier. His recent steady contact suggests he’s seeing the ball well, recording hits in two of his last three games and maintaining a patient approach that should serve him well against Boston’s right-handed pitching.

Batting fourth for Minnesota places Clemens in an ideal spot to capitalize on baserunners, particularly given the Twins’ improved offensive approach in recent weeks. Boston’s pitching staff has shown vulnerability to left-handed bats, and Clemens’ swing path naturally elevates the ball - a crucial factor when targeting extra-base hits. At near-minimum ownership of 4.0%, he represents the type of contrarian value that can unlock premium plays elsewhere while providing genuine tournament-winning upside if he connects for his first home run in several games.

Honorable Mentions

• Salvador Perez ($4,100)
• Shohei Ohtani ($6,500)

2B Plays

Top Play: Jonathan India ($3,200)

Kansas City’s offensive environment creates an intriguing backdrop for tonight’s slate, with Jonathan India positioned perfectly to capitalize as the Royals’ leadoff hitter. The veteran second baseman brings a disciplined approach to the plate that should generate multiple plate appearances against Atlanta’s pitching staff, while his recent power surge - including that explosive three-RBI homer against Cleveland - demonstrates the ceiling that makes him so appealing at this salary. The intimate confines of Kauffman Stadium could play a factor, particularly if wind conditions favor hitters during tonight’s contest.

India’s 2.52x value projection stands out immediately, reflecting both his reasonable salary and legitimate upside in this favorable matchup. Atlanta’s starting pitching has struggled with command recently, potentially leading to elevated pitch counts and early bullpen usage that could benefit a patient hitter like India. While 11.3% ownership might seem elevated, his track record of multi-hit performances and ability to contribute across multiple statistical categories make him a foundational piece for tournament lineups seeking both safety and explosive potential.

Honorable Mentions

• Luis Garcia Jr. ($3,600)
• Willi Castro ($3,900)

3B Plays

Top Play: Tommy Edman ($3,300)

Tommy Edman represents the exact type of value play that separates winning DFS players from the field, offering 2.38x projected value at a modest $3,300 salary with surprisingly low 7.6% ownership. Despite recent struggles at the plate, Edman’s return from his ankle injury comes at an opportune moment against Cincinnati’s vulnerable pitching staff. His versatility and baseball IQ consistently put him in position to impact games beyond traditional statistical measures, while his speed creates stolen base upside that few players at this price point can match.

The Dodgers’ offensive explosion creates numerous scoring opportunities throughout their lineup, and Edman’s ability to work counts and reach base safely positions him perfectly to capitalize on the team’s power hitters. Cincinnati’s pitching staff has been particularly susceptible to patient left-handed hitters, and Edman’s disciplined approach should generate favorable matchups throughout the game. At this salary, you’re essentially getting a starting player from one of baseball’s best offenses at near-minimum price, creating the salary relief needed to roster premium arms and elite bats elsewhere in your lineup.

Honorable Mentions

• Matt Chapman ($3,900)
• Mark Vientos ($2,900)

SS Plays

Top Play: Mookie Betts ($4,200)

Mookie Betts exploded for 21.0 DraftKings points in his most recent outing, showcasing the dynamic skill set that makes him a perennial superstar. That performance - featuring two hits, three runs, and a stolen base - perfectly encapsulates his multi-category upside and ability to impact games in numerous ways. His leadoff role for the Dodgers guarantees maximum plate appearances, while his recent move to shortstop has unlocked additional positional value that enhances his already impressive profile.

The matchup against Cincinnati’s pitching continues to look favorable for Los Angeles’ entire lineup, with Betts positioned to set the table for the explosive bats behind him. His patient approach naturally generates pitch counts that could lead to early bullpen appearances, potentially creating even more favorable matchups in later innings. At $4,200, Betts offers legitimate 30-point upside while maintaining a solid floor through his combination of speed, power, and plate discipline. The 12.1% ownership reflects his obvious appeal, but his ceiling remains high enough to justify the investment in tournament formats.

Honorable Mentions

• Bobby Witt Jr. ($5,500)
• Maikel Garcia ($4,400)

OF Plays

Top Play: Mike Trout ($4,700)

When Mike Trout connects, the results speak for themselves - his 19.0-point explosion against Seattle perfectly demonstrates why he remains one of baseball’s most dangerous hitters despite recent inconsistency. That performance featured the classic Trout signature: a towering home run combined with multiple hits and runs scored, reminding everyone of his ceiling when he finds his timing. Texas enters this series with a pitching staff that has struggled against elite right-handed power, creating exactly the type of matchup where Trout’s legendary plate coverage becomes a significant advantage.

The Angels’ home environment at Angel Stadium has historically favored Trout’s pull-heavy approach, particularly when facing the Rangers’ fly-ball prone pitching style. His $4,700 salary creates interesting roster construction possibilities, as you’re getting a future Hall of Famer at a discount compared to his peak pricing. While recent games show some inconsistency, Trout’s track record suggests positive regression is coming, and his 9.7% optimal lineup appearance rate indicates sharp players recognize his tournament-winning potential in this favorable spot.

Honorable Mentions

• Brandon Marsh ($3,200)
• Jarren Duran ($4,600)

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