FREE 06/07 UFC Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

With 26 fighters to choose from and an average salary of $8,100, UFC 316 presents some interesting roster construction challenges. We’ve identified four fighters projected to be highly owned (30%+), meaning strategic differentiation will be crucial for tournament success. Conversely, eight fighters stand out as potential value plays, offering the coveted 8x+ return that can unlock winning lineups. Navigating these ownership dynamics while targeting high-upside matchups like Dvalishvili vs. O’Malley and Harrison vs. Pena will be key to cashing this week.

Pay close attention to the pricing discrepancies and leverage our advanced reports to find leverage spots. The Mix vs. Bautista and Holland vs. Luque matchups also present intriguing scoring opportunities, but consider their potential for high ownership. Gastelum’s matchup against Pyfer could be a sneaky source of value, but his size disadvantage is a concern. Let’s break down our top plays for this slate.

Premium Tier ($9,000-$10,000)

Top Play: Merab Dvalishvili (-300) ($9,000)

Merab Dvalishvili relentlessly pursues takedowns, setting a historic pace with his wrestling volume and pressure. His recent title defense against a highly-regarded opponent showcases his ability to maintain a torrid pace for five rounds, overwhelming even the most skilled fighters. Dvalishvili’s cardio advantage is unmatched, allowing him to pour on the pressure as the fight progresses and creating a high ceiling for takedowns and control time.

Facing O’Malley again presents a favorable matchup where Dvalishvili’s grappling and relentless pressure can negate O’Malley’s striking advantage. Dvalishvili’s proven ability to implement his game plan and secure takedowns translates to consistent fantasy scoring. Despite high projected ownership, his optimal percentage reflects the likelihood that his wrestling-heavy approach will lead to a dominant performance and a top score.

Other Premium Options

• Kayla Harrison ($9,700, Own: 46.8%, Odds: -700)
• Joshua Van ($9,300, Own: 27.0%)

Mid-Range Tier ($8,000-$8,999)

Top Play 1: Kevin Holland (-160) ($8,800)

Holland returns to welterweight where his length and striking become even more pronounced advantages. He demonstrated improved takedown defense against Nelson, minimizing the grappling exchanges and securing a crucial decision victory. His striking volume and power translate well in this matchup, especially given his opponent’s willingness to engage in stand-up exchanges.

Holland’s recent Performance of the Night bonus, despite not finishing the fight, highlights his ability to generate significant fantasy points through knockdowns and striking output. His ownership, while slightly above average, doesn’t fully reflect his finishing upside and potential for a high score. The price provides access to a fighter who is capable of a ceiling performance and a strong contribution to optimal lineups.

Top Play 2: Khaos Williams (-255) ($8,700)

Khaos Williams possesses fight-changing power and consistently hunts for the finish. His explosiveness translates to high-impact striking, resulting in quick knockouts and bonus-winning performances. Facing a UFC debutant on short notice, Williams benefits from a significant experience advantage and a clear path to showcase his dynamic offense.

Williams maintains a solid optimal percentage (23.7%) despite moderate ownership (22.8%), indicating strong potential to land in winning lineups. The late opponent change favors his aggressive style, as he now faces an opponent with limited UFC tape and less time to prepare a specific game plan. This matchup sets up well for Williams to dictate the pace and capitalize on openings early.

Other Mid-Range Options

• Serghei Spivac ($8,300, Own: 24.3%)
• Patchy Mix ($8,500, Own: 22.5%)

Value Tier ($7,000-$7,999)

Top Play: Mark Choinski (+170) ($7,300)

Choinski enters his UFC debut with an undefeated 8-0 record, showcasing a knack for finishing fights. Six of his victories come via stoppage, with his last five all being submissions, demonstrating a clear strength on the ground. This finishing ability translates directly into fantasy upside, and at his salary, he presents a significant opportunity to outscore his price.

Facing Mederos, Choinski benefits from his opponent’s striking-heavy approach, creating potential for takedown opportunities and submission attempts. His high optimal percentage (29.0%) suggests strong potential to be in winning lineups, and despite moderate ownership (27.2%), the combination of finishing upside and favorable matchup makes him a top tournament target.

Other Value Options

• Sean O’Malley ($7,200, Own: 34.5%)
• Mario Bautista ($7,700, Own: 16.9%, Odds: -110)

Good luck! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Fighter Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!