FREE 07/12 UFC Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

UFC Nashville features 24 fighters with an average salary of $8,100, offering a balanced mix of high-ownership targets and strong value plays. Seven fighters project for 30%+ ownership, while eight stand out as 8x+ value candidates, creating clear roster construction decisions. The main event between Tallison Teixeira and Derrick Lewis highlights the volatility of the card, with Lewis’ power and experience facing Teixeira’s athleticism and youth—making it a potential boom-or-bust DFS spot. Meanwhile, Gabriel Bonfim’s grappling advantage over Stephen Thompson and Steve Garcia’s knockout streak against a fading Calvin Kattar present pivotal leverage opportunities.

Ownership will likely concentrate around Teixeira, Bonfim, and Garcia, but value plays like Austen Lane and Nate Landwehr could provide critical differentiation. Lewis and Thompson, though underdogs, offer upside in their respective matchups if they can exploit durability concerns or stylistic edges. With tight salaries and several high-variance fights, this slate rewards strategic risk-taking. Let’s break down our top plays for this slate.

Premium Tier ($9,000-$10,000)

Top Play: Tallison Teixeira (-212) ($9,000)

Tallison Teixeira carries explosive power and immediate finishing ability into his matchup against Derrick Lewis. His UFC debut showcased a flawless 35-second knockout of Justin Tafa, demonstrating the fight-ending strikes that earned him a Contender Series contract. Lewis’ tendency to brawl plays directly into Teixeira’s strengths, as the Brazilian thrives in exchanges with his sharp elbows and opportunistic counter-striking. At $9,000, his high optimal lineup rate (43.78%) reflects both his ceiling and the likelihood he capitalizes on Lewis’ defensive lapses.

Teixeira has been relentless in pursuing early stoppages, with both his UFC and Contender Series wins coming via first-round knockouts. Lewis’ vulnerability to pressure and Teixeira’s ability to close distance quickly create a clear path to another high-scoring performance. The ownership (57.3%) is justified given his matchup-specific upside and the heavyweight division’s volatility. His aggressive style and power make him a near-lock for significant fantasy points, whether through rapid strikes or control time against the fence.

Other Premium Options

• Gabriel Bonfim ($9,300, Own: 29.3%, Odds: -400)
• Mike Davis ($9,800, Own: 34.2%, Odds: -900)

Mid-Range Tier ($8,000-$8,999)

Top Play 1: Morgan Charriere (-250) ($8,900)

Morgan Charriere has been showcasing relentless volume, making him a high-upside DFS play at featherweight. His knockout victories highlight his ability to capitalize on openings with sharp combinations, and his aggressive output generates consistent fantasy scoring through significant strikes. Facing Nate Landwehr, who tends to engage in brawls, plays perfectly into Charriere’s strengths, as he thrives in high-paced striking exchanges where his precision and power can shine.

At $8,900, Charriere’s salary presents strong value for a fighter with proven finishing ability and a favorable stylistic matchup. His optimal lineup rate (35.3%) reflects his tournament-winning potential, while his moderate ownership (28.4%) keeps him from being an overexposed play. Charriere’s recent knockout win over Gabriel Miranda demonstrates his ability to deliver high-scoring performances, and this fight sets up another opportunity for him to land fight-ending strikes and rack up fantasy points.

Top Play 2: Junior Tafa (-160) ($8,600)

Junior Tafa carries explosive power in his hands with a striking style that creates high finishing potential. His aggressive forward pressure forces opponents into defensive positions, leading to consistent fantasy scoring through knockdowns and significant strikes. Facing Tokkos, who has struggled defensively in his UFC bouts, amplifies Tafa’s upside for a dominant performance.

Tafa’s salary at $8,600 provides strong value for a fighter with clear knockout upside against an opponent on a two-fight losing skid. His optimal lineup rate of 28.8% reflects his ability to deliver tournament-winning performances, while his moderate ownership keeps him in play for differentiation. This matchup sets up perfectly for Tafa to capitalize on his power and control the pace.

Other Mid-Range Options

• Chidi Njokuani ($8,200, Own: 24.1%, Odds: -110)
• Kennedy Nzechukwu ($8,800, Own: 21.7%, Odds: -185)

Value Tier ($7,000-$7,999)

Top Play: Max Griffin (+135) ($7,100)

Max Griffin consistently pressures opponents into defensive positions. His volume-heavy approach generates steady fantasy scoring through significant strikes and forward control, while his durability keeps him in fights long enough to capitalize on late-round opportunities. Facing Chris Curtis, who lacks the grappling threat to neutralize Griffin’s striking, sets up a favorable matchup where his aggressive output can overwhelm an opponent making his welterweight debut.

At $7,100, Griffin’s salary presents strong value for a fighter with a 32% optimal lineup rate and proven upside in striking battles. His moderate ownership (35.1%) near the field average ensures he won’t be overexposed in tournaments, and his style aligns perfectly with a matchup where he can dictate the tempo. Griffin’s ability to maintain pressure and land damaging combinations makes him a high-floor, high-ceiling play in this spot.

Other Value Options

• Calvin Kattar ($7,800, Own: 34.3%, Odds: +180)
• Valter Walker ($7,400, Own: 35.3%, Odds: +160)

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