FREE 10/11 UFC Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

UFC Rio presents an intriguing mix of high-priced favorites and legitimate value opportunities across 24 fighters. With an $8,100 average salary and eight fighters projected for 30%+ ownership, roster construction will require careful balance between the chalk and contrarian plays. The main event features Charles Oliveira against short-notice replacement Mateusz Gamrot, creating an interesting dynamic where the home favorite Oliveira enters as a slight underdog despite his finishing upside.

The pricing structure offers clear tiers, with premium options like Joel Alvarez ($9,800) commanding top dollar for his move up to welterweight against Vicente Luque, while seven fighters present legitimate 8x+ value potential. Deiveson Figueiredo’s $7,200 salary against Rob Jackson stands out as a potential pivot spot, though the size disadvantage creates questions about his path to a big score. With chalk concentrated in obvious spots and several under-the-radar value plays available, lineup differentiation should be achievable for those willing to take calculated risks. Let’s break down our top plays for this slate.

Premium Tier ($9,000-$10,000)

Top Play: Joel Alvarez ($9,500)

Alvarez brings his finishing ability up to welterweight against an opponent who has struggled significantly in recent outings, losing four of his last six fights. The 6’3" frame with 77-inch reach translates perfectly to the higher weight class, where his length advantage becomes even more pronounced against typical welterweight builds. His three-fight winning streak features three consecutive finishes, demonstrating the knockout power that makes him dangerous at any weight division.

The betting market reflects strong confidence in Alvarez with an 84.2% win probability and -535 moneyline odds, while the finish odds heavily favor KO/TKO at +130. At $9,500, he offers legitimate tournament upside with moderate ownership at 42.3%, creating differentiation opportunities in large-field contests. His optimal lineup percentage of 33.6% indicates strong underlying metrics, and facing Luque as a late replacement suggests a favorable stylistic matchup for his aggressive finishing style.

Other Premium Options

• Julia Polastri ($9,400, Own: 21.4%)
• Bia Mesquita ($9,600, Own: 32.1%)

Mid-Range Tier ($8,000-$8,999)

Top Play 1: Luan Lacerda ($8,900)

Lacerda faces an opponent coming off an extreme weight miss that fundamentally shifts the dynamics of this matchup in his favor. Saimon Oliveira’s failure to make bantamweight by a shocking four pounds creates a significant competitive advantage, as severe weight cuts often compromise cardio and durability while Lacerda maintains his full preparation. The betting market reflects this edge with Lacerda installed as a heavy -360 favorite, translating to a strong 78.3% win probability that validates his premium salary positioning.

His grappling-heavy approach aligns perfectly with the most likely finish type, as submission odds sit at an attractive +120 compared to much longer decision and knockout prices. Lacerda’s willingness to accept this catchweight bout demonstrates confidence in his ability to capitalize on an opponent who struggled through fight week, while the -275 odds against going the distance suggest he can secure a finish for maximum fantasy scoring. At 40% projected ownership with a tournament rank of 2, he offers the right combination of safety and upside for cash games and GPP builds alike.

Top Play 2: Mateusz Gamrot ($8,400)

Gamrot continues to showcase his elite wrestling control while maintaining impressive striking volume that creates multiple scoring pathways. His recent dominant performance against Klein demonstrated his ability to dictate fights through takedowns and ground control, accumulating over eight minutes of control time while outlanding his opponent 65-24 in significant strikes. The Polish veteran has secured victory in four of his last five outings, with his wrestling-heavy approach consistently producing the fantasy-friendly combination of takedowns, control time, and striking volume that generates reliable scoring floors.

Facing Oliveira presents an ideal stylistic matchup for Gamrot’s skill set, as the Brazilian’s aggressive submission game often leaves openings for takedowns and scrambles that favor wrestlers with strong top control. The pick’em betting odds at -112 reflect a competitive fight where Gamrot’s cardio advantage and pace-pushing style should become increasingly valuable as the rounds progress. At $8,400, his tournament ranking of fifth overall validates the pricing efficiency, while his proven ability to accumulate fantasy points through multiple categories makes him an excellent anchor play for tournament lineups seeking both floor and ceiling potential.

Other Mid-Range Options

• Ricardo Ramos ($8,800, Own: 21.1%)
• Michael Aswell Jr. ($8,600, Own: 17.6%)

Value Tier ($7,000-$7,999)

Top Play: Charles Oliveira ($7,800)

Oliveira faces a favorable stylistic matchup against Mateusz Gamrot, whose wrestling-heavy approach plays directly into the Brazilian’s submission expertise. The betting market reflects this with submission odds at just +275, indicating strong confidence in Oliveira’s ability to find a finish on the ground. His grappling transitions remain elite despite recent setbacks, and Gamrot’s aggressive takedown attempts create multiple opportunities for scrambles where Oliveira historically excels.

The $7,800 salary provides excellent value considering his 51.9% win probability in what’s essentially a pick’em fight. Oliveira’s finishing upside gives him significant tournament appeal, with the betting market heavily favoring a stoppage at -195 for the fight not going the distance. While ownership sits at 45.2%, his proven ability to deliver explosive scoring through submissions and ground control makes him a core play in a spot where his championship-level grappling should shine against an opponent who willingly engages in those exchanges.

Other Value Options

• Jhonata Diniz ($7,900, Own: 36.5%)
• Stewart Nicoll ($7,700, Own: 38.5%)

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