FREE 10/18 UFC Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

UFC Vancouver presents an intriguing roster construction challenge with 26 fighters averaging $8,100 in salary. The pricing creates some interesting dynamics, as we’re looking at a relatively tight salary structure that should allow for balanced lineups without forcing too many difficult decisions. With only four fighters projected for heavy ownership above 30%, there’s solid opportunity to find differentiation in tournaments while still accessing the slate’s top scoring potential.

The value tier looks particularly promising this week, with seven fighters showing legitimate 8x upside potential that could unlock premium plays elsewhere in your lineups. Key matchups like Holland vs Malott and Prepolec vs Dober offer compelling GPP angles, while the main card features several fighters whose pricing may not fully reflect their ceiling outcomes. The ownership distribution should create plenty of leverage spots for those willing to fade the obvious chalk plays. Let’s break down our top plays for this slate.

Premium Tier ($9,000-$10,000)

Top Play: Drew Dober ($9,400)

Dober faces a favorable stylistic matchup against Kyle Prepolec that should allow him to showcase his improved striking fundamentals and veteran cage awareness. His 77.3% win probability reflects the significant skill gap in this bout, as Prepolec’s limited UFC experience and defensive vulnerabilities create multiple pathways to victory for the seasoned lightweight. Dober’s power striking and ability to find openings against less experienced opponents has historically produced strong fantasy scoring when he faces the right matchup.

The $9,400 price point provides excellent leverage at moderate 35.8% ownership, especially considering his tournament ranking of third overall. Dober’s finishing ability remains intact despite recent struggles against elite competition, and this step down in opponent quality should restore confidence in his knockout upside. His 31.2% optimal lineup inclusion rate validates the strong correlation between his win probability and fantasy ceiling, making him an essential building block for tournament lineups seeking reliable floor production with explosive finishing potential.

Other Premium Options

• Azamat Bekoev ($9,100, Own: 31.2%)
• Danny Barlow ($9,200, Own: 29.6%)

Mid-Range Tier ($8,000-$8,999)

Top Play 1: Reinier de Ridder ($8,800)

De Ridder continues his dominant UFC run with a perfect 4-0 record that includes a statement split decision victory over former champion Robert Whittaker in his most recent outing. The 6’4" southpaw brings elite grappling credentials into tonight’s middleweight clash, where his submission skills align perfectly with the betting market’s expectations at +185 odds for a finish via submission. His five-fight winning streak demonstrates consistent finishing ability, and the -245 odds against this fight going the distance suggest strong potential for bonus scoring through an early stoppage.

The matchup dynamics heavily favor de Ridder’s grappling-heavy approach, with his 65.8% win probability reflected in the -192 moneyline positioning him as a clear favorite. At $8,800, his tournament-leading ranking and 41.4% optimal lineup inclusion rate validate the pricing despite elevated ownership at 47.8%. His southpaw stance and reach advantage create additional layers of difficulty for opponents, while his proven ability to control and finish fights provides the reliable scoring floor needed in cash games with legitimate ceiling potential for tournaments.

Top Play 2: Cody Gibson ($8,600)

Gibson continues to showcase his veteran boxing skills and early-fight aggression that has translated into strong DFS scoring opportunities. His crisp striking combinations and ability to control the pace early in fights creates reliable fantasy points through significant strikes and potential finish bonuses. The recent performance against Blackshear demonstrated his superior technical ability for the majority of that contest, and his experience advantage becomes crucial in navigating high-pressure bantamweight matchups.

The matchup against Qileng presents an excellent spot for Gibson to capitalize on his striking prowess against an opponent coming off a defeat with an inconsistent UFC track record. At $8,600, his salary provides tournament value with 28.5% optimal lineup inclusion while maintaining reasonable ownership at 24.7%. Gibson’s ability to start fast and accumulate early striking volume gives him a solid scoring floor, and his veteran finishing ability adds the upside needed for GPP success in this bantamweight spot.

Other Mid-Range Options

• Manon Fiorot ($8,900, Own: 15.5%)
• Charles Jourdain ($8,700, Own: 20.1%)

Value Tier ($7,000-$7,999)

Top Play: Melissa Croden ($7,800)

Croden brings devastating finishing power into her UFC debut with five knockouts and one submission across her 6-2 professional record. Her aggressive striking style has proven effective against quality competition, and the promotional debut motivation adds an extra layer of intensity for a fighter already known for seeking early finishes. The bantamweight division’s current landscape favors powerful strikers who can end fights quickly, making her skillset particularly valuable in this spot.

The $7,800 salary provides excellent value for a fighter with legitimate knockout upside, especially with 56.5% win probability indicating the betting market respects her chances against Lisboa. Fighting in her home country of Canada creates additional motivation and crowd support that often translates to elevated performances from debuting fighters. Her moderate 32.5% ownership sits just above field average, offering solid tournament leverage when combined with her finishing ability and favorable fight dynamics.

Other Value Options

• Kyle Nelson ($7,900, Own: 28.1%)
• Marlon Vera ($7,700, Own: 17.9%)

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