FREE 10/25 UFC Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

UFC 321 presents an intriguing mix of championship fights and value opportunities across 26 fighters with an $8,100 average salary. The headliner features Tom Aspinall defending his heavyweight title against Ciryl Gane, while we also get a women’s strawweight title fight between Virna Jandiroba and Mackenzie Dern. With only four fighters projected for 30%+ ownership, there’s solid leverage potential throughout the card, especially considering we have 10 strong candidates for 8x+ value.

The pricing creates some interesting roster construction decisions, particularly with premium options like Aspinall commanding top dollar while fighters like Alexander Volkov and Jailton Almeida offer compelling mid-tier plays in what should be an explosive heavyweight clash. The relatively balanced ownership projections suggest we won’t be dealing with overwhelming chalk, opening up multiple viable tournament strategies. Let’s break down our top plays for this slate.

Premium Tier ($9,000-$10,000)

Top Play: Tom Aspinall ($9,400)

Aspinall enters his first official heavyweight title defense with devastating finishing power that has produced knockouts in his last three victories over elite competition. The newly crowned champion has consistently delivered explosive performances, with his combination of speed, precision striking, and opportunistic grappling creating multiple pathways to high-scoring fantasy finishes. His 78% win probability reflects the market’s confidence in his ability to handle Gane’s technical kickboxing, while the -750 odds against going the distance highlight his proven finishing ability at the highest level.

The matchup against Gane plays directly into Aspinall’s strengths, as his opponent’s documented takedown defense issues provide additional scoring avenues beyond the striking exchanges. At $9,400, his salary reflects championship-level expectations, but the 100-to-1 finish odds for KO/TKO demonstrate the upside that justifies the investment. His 33.4% optimal lineup rate confirms the mathematical appeal, while his recent elevation to undisputed champion status adds motivation for a statement performance in his first official defense.

Other Premium Options

• Umar Nurmagomedov ($9,6fc00, Own: 20.4%)
• Valter Walker ($9,100, Own: 32.1%)

Mid-Range Tier ($8,000-$8,999)

Top Play 1: Jailton Almeida ($8,800)

Almeida continues to showcase devastating finishing ability with eight stoppage victories across his 8-1 UFC run, including his recent first-round TKO demolition of Serghei Spivac at UFC 311. His combination of elite grappling credentials and improved striking power creates multiple paths to victory, while his ability to scramble back to his feet and deliver fight-ending damage demonstrates the well-rounded skill set that makes him so dangerous. The submission odds of +140 reflect his proven ground game, but his recent knockout power adds an extra dimension that opponents struggle to prepare for.

Facing Volkov presents an ideal stylistic matchup for Almeida’s aggressive takedown-heavy approach against a striker who has shown vulnerability to wrestlers throughout his career. The -192 moneyline indicates strong market confidence in his chances, while the 65.8% win probability aligns perfectly with his finishing upside at the $8,800 price point. With moderate ownership projected at 32.5%, Almeida offers excellent tournament leverage as the second-ranked play, providing both a reliable floor through his grappling control and massive ceiling through his proven ability to end fights early across multiple methods.

Top Play 2: Quillan Salkilld ($8,100)

Salkilld continues to showcase elite finishing ability across multiple phases while maintaining perfect UFC momentum through his 2-0 promotional start. His explosive knockout power produced a 19-second debut finish, and his grappling dominance against Ashmouz demonstrated remarkable takedown volume with eight successful attempts from 23 tries. The 25-year-old prospect has displayed the technical versatility to control fights through wrestling when striking opportunities diminish, creating multiple pathways to fantasy scoring throughout each round.

His matchup against Haqparast presents excellent value at $8,100 with the betting market establishing him as a slight favorite at -115 in what projects as a competitive decision-heavy fight. The decision finish odds at +175 align perfectly with Salkilld’s recent grinding style, while his proven knockout upside keeps tournament ceiling intact should early striking exchanges develop favorably. At 26.4% projected ownership sitting just above field average, his combination of finishing threats and volume-based floor offers strong tournament differentiation with legitimate optimal lineup appeal at 36.5%.

Other Mid-Range Options

• Jose Delgado ($8,500, Own: 25.4%)

Value Tier ($7,000-$7,999)

Top Play: Mateusz Rebecki ($7,800)

Rebecki brings exceptional volume striking and proven durability into a pick’em fight that sets up perfectly for fantasy scoring. His recent war with Chris Duncan showcased his granite chin and relentless pressure, out-landing his opponent 114-92 in significant strikes while absorbing heavy damage and continuing to press forward. The Polish lightweight’s ability to maintain output through adversity creates a reliable fantasy floor, especially against Klein who tends to engage in firefights rather than wrestling-heavy approaches.

The $7,800 price point offers solid value for a fighter sitting near 49% win probability with decision odds favoring extended action. Rebecki’s cardio and volume-based approach becomes more valuable in longer fights, and his willingness to trade in the pocket generates consistent fantasy scoring through strike totals. At moderate ownership levels around 28%, he provides excellent tournament leverage while maintaining the floor necessary for cash game consideration in what projects as a competitive lightweight scrap.

Other Value Options

• Virna Jandiroba ($7,600, Own: 31.7%)

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