Petr Yan and Deiveson Figueiredo are set to collide in what promises to be an electric main event in Macau, China. Yan, once the bantamweight king, has faced a tough stretch, with losses to champions like Aljamain Sterling and Sean O’Malley. However, he’s riding high after a big win over Song Yadong in March and looks to reignite his career against the dangerous Figueiredo.

The main card also delivers exciting matchups. Yan Xiaonan, competing in front of her home crowd, takes on rising strawweight contender Tabatha Ricci. Meanwhile, Carlos Ulberg, riding a streak of five UFC finishes, squares off against knockout artist Volkan Oezdemir, who’s been in peak form lately.

Zhang Mingyang 63% Finish Line; 44% First Round Finish; 72% Implied Win Prob.

Maheshate 44% Finish Line; 20% First Round Finish; 63% Win Prob.

Carlos Ulberg 42% Finish Line; 21% First Round Finish; 66% Implied Win Prob.

Lone’er Kavanagh 40% Finish Line; 19% First Round Finish; 74% Win Prob.

Wang Cong 38% Finish Line; 18% First Round Finish; 87% Win Prob.

Petr Yan 32% Finish Line; 11% First Round Finish; 75% Win Prob.

Muslim Salikhov 31% Finish Line; 16% First Round Finish; 62% Win Prob.

Top Fights to Target/GPP Plays and Pivots

*Suyoung You 8.3k/Baergeng Jieleyisi 7.9k

This is a tight matchup. Figgy has transitioned well to 135, showcasing improved cardio and wrestling, and even managed to drop Chito Vera in his last fight. On the other hand, Petr Yan is a former champ with crisp striking, elite takedown defense, and a dangerous overall game. Figgy's grappling improvements are notable, but Yan's technical striking and ability to negate wrestling exchanges should carry him over five rounds.

Yan is a former Bantamweight champ known for his exceptional striking and underrated wrestling. With an 85% takedown defense and sharp offensive skills, he’s tough to outwork. He comes forward with a high guard, landing accurate power shots and averaging nearly two takedowns per fight. Yan’s coming off a solid win over Song Yadong, where he mixed striking and takedowns effectively.

Figgy, a former Flyweight champ, has found new life at Bantamweight. His move up has brought better cardio and a wrestling-heavy approach, with seven takedowns in his last three fights. He’s a dangerous all-around fighter with power, a BJJ black belt, and improved pace. Figgy is coming off a strong decision win over Chito Vera, where he showcased his versatility with striking and grappling.

Tabatha Ricci’s relentless pressure and cardio make her a tough out, but her lack of strong wrestling limits her ability to fully leverage her BJJ. Meanwhile, Yan Xiaonan is a sharp boxer with the skills and experience to control the striking exchanges. While Ricci’s pace might steal a round, Yan’s technical edge and ability to stay composed under pressure make her the clear favorite.

Yan is a precise boxer with excellent timing and solid grappling improvements. She thrives in striking exchanges and can handle gritty fights when needed. Despite recent losses to elite competition, she’s proven to be a tough and versatile fighter. Yan is coming off a title fight against Weili Zhang, where she showed resilience even while being taken down multiple times.

Ricci is a relentless grappler with outstanding cardio and heavy top pressure. Her striking is improving, but it’s not her strong suit, and her takedown game isn’t consistent enough to maximize her BJJ. She relies on cage control and pace to overwhelm opponents. Ricci is coming off a high-pressure win over Angela Hill, where her gas tank shined.

Kenan Song has fight-ending power but questionable decision-making inside the cage. Even if he rocks Salikhov, his lack of composure could cost him the finish. On the other hand, Salikhov may be aging, but he’s the more polished fighter with striking variety and wrestling to fall back on. I’m taking Salikhov here, but he’ll need to mix in some grappling to avoid potential trouble on the feet.

Song is a heavy hitter who thrives when given space to unleash his power. While his striking is dangerous, his technique isn’t the cleanest, and his wrestling defense leaves gaps. Song has knockdowns in many of his fights but often struggles to capitalize due to poor fight IQ. He’s coming off a decision win over Ricky Glenn that showcased his power but highlighted his lack of cage awareness.

Salikhov is a seasoned striker who lands with power and precision. He mixes strikes well and can lean on his wrestling when needed. While age might be catching up, his experience and fight IQ are clear advantages. He’s coming off a tough KO loss to Randy Brown but remains a threat on the feet and in grappling exchanges.

Wang Cong 9.6k vs. Gabriella Fernandes 6.6k

Wang’s striking is on another level, and while her takedown defense hasn’t been fully tested, Fernandes doesn’t seem like the one to push that area. Once Wang lands a few heavy shots, Fernandes will likely get desperate and try for low-percentage takedowns, leaving herself open for a finish. Wang is one of the safer picks on the card.

Wang is an elite kickboxer with lightning-fast hands and devastating power. She’s already proven herself against top-tier strikers, even holding a win over Valentina Shevchenko in kickboxing. Her transition to MMA has shown promising takedown defense, though she hasn’t faced a relentless grappler yet. Wang’s last fight ended in a highlight-reel KO over Victoria Leonardo, and her striking arsenal makes her a dangerous threat.

Fernandes is a strong and technical striker with decent BJJ skills. While she can hold her own standing, her grappling is more physical than technical, relying on size and strength rather than clean setups. Her takedown defense is serviceable, but she struggles when facing opponents who can control from the top. Fernandes is coming off a close decision win over Carli Judice, where she showcased some offensive grappling.

Volkan Oezdemir 7.3k vs. Carlos Ulberg 8.9k

At first glance, this seemed like an easy pick for Ulberg, but Oezdemir’s experience and durability make this closer than it looks. Volkan has fought top-tier opponents and hasn’t been KO’d since 2020, showing resilience. That said, Ulberg’s superior striking and solid takedown defense give him the edge. While it’s not a lock, I’m sticking with Ulberg to get it done.Volkan is a heavy-handed pressure fighter who likes to overwhelm opponents with volume and power. While his striking is dangerous, his wrestling isn’t reliable, with only a 33% takedown accuracy. He’s faced elite competition in the UFC, with all his losses coming against top-tier opponents. Volkan is coming off a strong KO win over Johnny Walker, where he controlled the fight and landed big shots.Ulberg is a high-level kickboxer with excellent footwork, range control, and precision striking. He lands at a striking rate of 8-to-3 and boasts solid takedown defense (75%). His lone MMA loss came in a fight he was dominating before getting caught, showing he’s not invincible but still incredibly skilled. Ulberg is fresh off a KO win over Alonzo Menifield, showcasing his ability to counter and capitalize on mistakes.

This matchup should be fireworks, with both guys known for their finishing ability. Diaz brings creativity and movement to the striking game, but his chin has been a liability. Zhang, on the other hand, is the better grappler and thrives on ground-and-pound pressure. Even if Diaz has moments on the feet, Zhang’s ability to drag this fight to the ground gives him the edge.Diaz is a former LFA champ with a striking-heavy approach. He uses his movement and creativity to find finishes, whether in the clinch or at range. At 6’4”, he’s tall for the division but lacks the physicality of thicker-built opponents. His grappling is serviceable but not a strong point, and his durability has been tested, making him a bit chinny. Zhang is a finisher through and through, with all his wins coming via stoppage. He blends striking with relentless grappling, usually ending fights with brutal ground-and-pound or submissions. While his stand-up can be raw, his toughness and forward pressure make up for it. Zhang is coming off a KO win over Brendson Ribeiro, showcasing his ability to end fights quickly.

Suyoung You 8.3k vs. Baergeng Jieleyisi 7.9k

This one’s a clash of styles: relentless wrestling versus solid striking and defensive awareness. Young You is all-in on the takedown game, but his desperation can lead to sloppy entries. Jieleyisi’s tall frame might make him an easier target for takedowns, but he’s handled that challenge his whole career. His ability to punish sloppy shots with elbows and knees gives him an edge. Suyoung You is a takedown machine, constantly diving for legs and chaining attempts. He barely strikes unless it’s to set up a shot and has no problem shooting 20-30 times a fight. On the mat, he’s an aggressive grappler who’s always advancing and hunting submissions. However, his entries can get messy, leaving openings for counters. Jieleyisi is a long, rangy fighter who uses his size well to control distance and cut off the cage. His upright stance attracts takedown attempts, but his defense holds up, and he’s skilled at making opponents pay with elbows, knees, or quick transitions. He’s fast and dangerous in scrambles, adding an unpredictable layer to his game.

Another "Road to the UFC" final and the underdog is looking pretty decent. Choi's cautious, low-volume style doesn’t match up well against Kiru’s length and activity. Choi has decent takedowns, but his striking is hesitant, and he’s prone to getting busted up. Kiru’s range and ability to deal damage everywhere make him the pick here.Sahota is rangy and fights like he has extra-long limbs, using his kicks and movement to frustrate opponents. He keeps you at bay with volume and sharp strikes, rarely giving you the chance to close distance. While not a power puncher, his precision and activity can wear opponents down. His takedown defense is solid, leveraging his length to stay balanced and out of trouble.

Choi is a cautious, low-output striker who mixes in takedowns to stay competitive. He’s tough, with solid cardio, but lacks explosiveness or finishing power. Choi relies on his durability and ability to grind late in fights, though his low hands and hesitancy make him hittable and vulnerable to volume strikers.

This looks like a clear win for Feng. She has a big size advantage and superior wrestling that should let her dictate where the fight takes place. Expect her to control Shi on the ground and grind out a dominant victory.Feng is a powerful wrestler who favors clean takedowns and a smothering ground-and-pound approach. Once on top, she stays busy and maintains control, flowing between positions to avoid resets. Her submission defense is solid, and she thrives when she can execute her game plan. Shi is a scrappy striker who relies on forward pressure to close the distance. At just 5’2”, she struggles with range but compensates with aggression and heavy hands. While her cage defense is decent, she’s vulnerable to takedowns in open space, and her offensive grappling lacks consistency.

Nyamjargal Tumendemberel 7.6k vs. Carlos Hernandez 8.6k

I’m leaning toward Carlos Hernandez here. His experience against higher-level competition could make the difference in a fight that drags on. Nyamjargal has the talent and aggression, but his lack of defensive polish and untested stamina might be his downfall.Hernandez is a grappler with decent striking. His stand-up game includes a sharp jab and sneaky power, but his technique isn’t flawless. He’s most dangerous in scrambles, where his slick BJJ allows him to throw up unpredictable submissions like flying triangles. However, his wrestling is underwhelming, often relying on upper-body work instead of clean shots. He’s coming off a decision loss to Rei Tatsura. Nyam is a powerhouse striker with a relentless forward style. His wide base and heavy hands make him dangerous in exchanges, especially in the pocket. While his aggressive approach generates finishes, his striking defense leaves openings, and his gas tank hasn’t been fully tested. The undefeated prospect has seven stoppages but hasn’t faced high-level competition yet.

Lone’er Kavanagh 9.4k vs. Jose Ochoa 6.8k

This one should be a blast! Both fighters are quick and versatile, so it's anyone's game, but I'm leaning toward Lone'er Kavanagh. His speed and high-level training make him a dangerous guy, and while Jose Ochoa brings relentless forward pressure, he might struggle to avoid the clean shots Lone'er will land. I think Lone'er’s ability to mix speed and power will get him the win, and even though smaller fighters don't always finish, this one could end early.

Lone'er is all about speed—he's quick enough to make his highlights look like they're in fast-forward! His movement is next level, and he combines that with serious power. He’s not a fighter who chases knockouts, but he has the cardio to keep the pressure on for 15 minutes. With the composure of a seasoned vet, he's a serious prospect.Jose is a well-rounded fighter who thrives on pressure and volume. He's tough and will happily engage in a slugfest or mix in some grappling, with solid takedown defense to keep him standing. He might not have the raw power, but his constant pressure makes him a handful. He can take shots, but he's a bit hittable, so he’ll need to stay smart to avoid Lone’er’s strikes.

This one’s a tough call since both fighters are pretty evenly matched, especially based on their last performances. Quang Le looked solid on short notice against Chris Gutierrez—he wasn’t afraid to move forward, landed a few takedowns, but got outstruck badly. If he can keep up that forward pressure here, he might have a shot, but I’m leaning toward Xiao for the win. Xiao’s relentless wrestling should be able to control the fight, and he’s tough enough to grind it out even when things aren’t going his way.Xiao is a durable, experienced grappler with 35 fights under his belt. He’s not going to wow you with power or finesse, but he’s tough as nails and has a solid “wrestle at all costs” mentality. While he can be outstruck and pressured, he’s smart enough to find ways to win, often by outlasting his opponents on the ground.Quang Le is a Muay Thai striker with quick footwork and a solid kicking game. He moves forward with confidence, looking to control the range with his strikes, though he can be hittable when he’s on the move. While he has solid takedown skills, his striking defense is a weakness, and against a guy like Xiao, that might be his downfall.

This matchup feels designed to give the local guy, Maheshate, a shot at shining, but I’m leaning toward Nikolas Motta for the upset. Maheshate is tough and game in a firefight, but his defense is way too leaky—eating shots to give shots isn’t sustainable. Motta’s patience, speed, and ability to capitalize on openings make him the reasonable pick.Maheshate, at just 24, already has a lot of experience. He’s a flashy striker who thrives when he can control the pace, mixing traditional techniques with wild, creative ones like spinning elbows. However, he’s very hittable, which was evident in his win over Gabriel Benitez, where he absorbed a lot of damage but managed to land the bigger shots.Motta is a sharp, explosive striker who thrives on finding his moment to unleash. His strong takedown defense (82%) keeps the fight standing, letting him focus on his clean and diverse striking game. He’s coming off an impressive KO win over Tom Nolan, showing he knows when to strike and how to finish. 

Good luck, everybody! I look forward to talking about strategy and ways to get different on this slate in Discord. Let’s get it!

11/23 UFC Cheat Sheet: Slate Breakdown

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