This week we are back to the UFC APEX in Vegas. The fight card features a sick prospect in Isaac Dulgarian, who is set up by the promotion in a smash spot after getting absolutely robbed in a terrible decision in his last fight where he dominated the fight for at least two rounds before gassing in the third. Other very interesting prospects on this card include the stunning Natalia Silva as well as Sean Brady and Steve Garcia.

Isaac Dulgarian 85% Finish Line; 53% First Round Finish Probability

Steve Garcia 53% Finish Line; 33% First Round Finish Probability

Rong Rongzhu 44% Finish Line; 21% First Round Finish Probability

Cody Durden 44% Finish Line; 21% First Round Finish Probability

Nathan Fletcher 37% Finish Line; 20% First Round Finish Probability

Andre Petroski 9.3k (GPP Pivot or maybe more after weigh-ins)

In the main event, I like Sean Brady, but there are a lot of people I respect in the MMA community who are very much on the Gilbert Burns side. The critics say Brady really hasn’t beaten anyone of consequence and he lost to the only good fighter he has fought in Belal Muhammed, which obviously aged pretty damn well. He has wins over Court McGee, Jake Matthews, Michael Chiesa, and Kelvin Gastelum. Burns is 38 years old, presumably on the backend of his great career, and has been in massive battles throughout his career. I think this is a passing of the guard in a way, but I tend to fall in love with young talent and forget about the levels of this game that you know I always mention. You have to kind of pick your side here.

Moving down the card, we have Natalia Silva, who is very marketable for the promotion and talented. She’s on an eleven-fight win streak with nice wins over fighters including Jasmine Jasudavicius. I really like Silva to win this fight, but I’m concerned about her scoring potential. Here are her scores in her last five wins: 50.6; 58.0; 108.7; 85.4; and 85.2. At 9k, it wouldn’t be surprising if she put up a score in the 50s. Aside from that, Jessica Andrade has been in the ring with the elite of the elite in WMMA. Granted, she has gotten destroyed by many of those contenders, she does put up huge scores in some of her wins (e.g., 131.6 against Dern; 130.7 against Murphy; and 132.4 against Cerminara). Andrade is big and solid all around. Every time I think her time as a high level fighter has eclipsed, she surprises me. I think Silva is smart enough and has the footwork to stay safe. If you like Andrade for your lineup(s), I don’t hate it. I have Silva in a lot of parlays… I’m not sure how much I will get to her in my DK lineups. I will definitely have some in the bigger tournaments.

Steve Garcia is on a four-fight win streak with KOs in each of those matchups. I think he will get another one here; however, if he is out there headhunting, as fighters have done when they fall in love with the kill shot, he could be in trouble against Nelson. Nelson is also on a three-fight win streak and has looked really good recently. He did miss weight by 2.5 pounds, which probably isn’t a good sign, especially for his chin. I will be playing Garcia mostly, but with some level of caution.

Cody Durden is coming in as a late-notice replacement for an injured Alexander Costa. He is a pressure wrestler who averages 5 takedowns per fight. He will chain wrestle, which scores well in general on DK, but Durden has only covered his current salary (9.4k) in two fights (i.e., 129.4 against Johnson and 112.2 against Buys). His opponent, Matt Schnell, is tough with solid striking and BJJ. He has been through some battles and some think his chin is dust. I feel like he’s an ok dog although he probably won’t be one of my higher exposure value plays.

Trevor Peek presents as a redneck psycho who comes forward at his opponents in the style of a backwoods zombie. His technical skill level is limited but he makes up for it with his animalistic tenacity. He’s tough and durable. He’s fighting another relatively tough guy in Yanal Ashmouz, who is much more technical. I don’t have a great read on this one. It’s a pick ‘em based on Vegas odds and you just got to take a stand if you want to play one of these guys.

Chris Padilla is my favorite value play on the slate. He is not great anywhere, but he pressures forward with explosive takedowns. I think he can get the takedowns here and get a win, similar to what we saw in his first fight in the UFC, which scored pretty well for his price point. I will probably have heavy exposure to him at maybe 40-55%, which is usually where I cap my live dogs as a general rule of thumb for MMA. There are times where I will get very aggressive with a dog, but not too often, and you need some high risk tolerance if you want to go big balls on a guy with an implied win probability of, like, 32%.

As I mentioned in the introduction, Isaac Dulgarian is an exciting fighter in a smash spot. If he wasn’t the highest-priced fighter in UFC DK history, he would be an absolute free square. With the value on this slate, he is still in play in my opinion, and it will be harder for him to be priced out of the optimal due to his takedown-friendly approach and busy ground-and-pound style. Clearly, you need a huge score to pay off his 9.9k tag.

I don’t have a great read on the Andre Lima and Felipe Dos Santos fight. Dos Santos will fight like what you would expect from a fighter from the Chute Box gym, which is coming forward with crazy pressure trying to get a finish. His style may give Lima trouble in that Andre doesn't like facing forward pressure. I’m not exceptionally eager to have either of these guys in my lineups.

Gabriel Santos is 0-2 in the UFC after facing two difficult opponents. Many people in the MMA community seem to like him for the win here. His opponent is Yi Yizha, who is a good grappler who seeks out submissions. He struggles a bit to maintain control on the ground. Yizha is a decent underdog to consider for light exposure. Santos is someone I will consider but I’m not sure I will go out of my way to increase exposure beyond what the optimizer gives me.

Jaqueline Amorim has power in her hands and can score very well when she gets quick finishes. She also has notable cardio concerns and can fade in fights. She is facing a tenacious opponent in Vanessa Demopoulos, who constantly moves forward and stays in your face. If Amorim does not get an early finish, she most likely will fade and Vanessa will be a very live dog. She’s a pretty big underdog at +260 and a 32% win probability - so keep that in mind with your exposures.

Andre Petroski seemed like he was a contender at one point in his career, but his stock dropped fast. He knocked himself out when he shot for a takedown two fights ago. He is a wrestler but his pace doesn’t always score well. He has high upside if he can get a finish; however, Petroski could get the takedowns and basically just hold his opponent down/control them, which limits his upside, even in a win, at times. It should be noted that Petroski’s opponent, Dylan Budka, looked awful on the scales for weigh-ins. He missed weight by 2.5 pounds and was drifting off on the scale. Not a good look for Budka and the field has been pounding the main line for Petroski on the sportsbooks ever since.

Nathan Fletcher vs. Zygimantas Ramaska in the first fight of the night. This is the one that got rescheduled from the last card due to staph on one or both of the fighters. Fletcher is probably the more well-rounded fighter here. He is a busy fighter coming out of the same gym as Paddy the Baddy. He is facing a good opponent in Ramaska who will stand and trade at a high level; Ramaska is susceptible to the takedown. If Fletcher can weather the early storm, I think he will get his ground game going and get the win. I will most likely have some exposure to Ramaska as an underdog as I think he’s very much live for a finish early or win if he can defend the takedowns.And, finally, just as a line-up construction thought: you might consider leaving $400-500 of salary on the table in lineups that include a fighter that is very highly owned (e.g., 30-35%). Obviously, you can trim your portfolio by the number of dupes, as well, in the app. I go back and forth on the number of dupes I want to stay under for bigger tournaments. You definitely want to trim down to below 20 dupes, and I usually get way more aggressive than that. With that said, you have to find a balance to keep your bankroll intact as you shoot for those big hits. MMA is definitely a big hit hunting game and you have to find ways to get unique without going too far off the “good plays.”

Good luck, everybody! I look forward to talking about strategy and ways to get different on this slate in Discord. Let’s get it!

9/7 UFC Cheat Sheet: Slate Breakdown

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DaveVR

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