FREE 02/03 NBA Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s 8-game NBA slate offers plenty to dig into, with a balanced schedule starting at 7:00 PM ET and wrapping up with two late games at 9:00 PM ET. The standout spots are clear, as both NOP at DEN and IND at UTA feature massive 242.0 totals, making them prime targets for DFS lineups. These high-scoring environments should draw plenty of attention, especially with the pace and offensive firepower involved in those matchups.

The rest of the slate has its share of slower-paced games, but there’s still value to be found if you’re willing to get creative. Late swap could also play a key role tonight given the timing of the highest-total games, so staying flexible might give you an edge.

Game Environment Analysis

ATL @ DET (O/U: 238.0, Spread: -4.0)

• Pace: ATL (2nd) vs DET (14th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: ATL (22nd) vs DET (19th)
• Def Eff: ATL (15th) vs DET (12th)

WAS @ CHA (O/U: 214.5, Spread: -5.5)

• Pace: WAS (4th) vs CHA (21st) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: WAS (30th) vs CHA (28th)
• Def Eff: WAS (30th) 🎯 vs CHA (13th)

HOU @ NYK (O/U: 224.0, Spread: -6.5)

• Pace: HOU (18th) vs NYK (26th)
• Off Eff: HOU (16th) vs NYK (2nd)
• Def Eff: HOU (2nd) vs NYK (17th)

SAC @ MIN (O/U: 221.0, Spread: -5.0)

• Pace: SAC (10th) vs MIN (25th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: SAC (9th) vs MIN (13th)
• Def Eff: SAC (19th) vs MIN (6th)

MIL @ OKC (O/U: 225.5, Spread: -16.0)

• Pace: MIL (11th) vs OKC (8th)
• Off Eff: MIL (11th) vs OKC (6th)
• Def Eff: MIL (10th) vs OKC (1st)
  ⚠️ Blowout risk

SAS @ MEM (O/U: 240.0, Spread: -2.5)

• Pace: SAS (17th) vs MEM (1st) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: SAS (14th) vs MEM (5th) 🔥
• Def Eff: SAS (16th) vs MEM (7th)

NOP @ DEN (O/U: 242.0, Spread: -10.5)

• Pace: NOP (12th) vs DEN (5th)
• Off Eff: NOP (25th) vs DEN (4th) 🔥
• Def Eff: NOP (28th) 🎯 vs DEN (20th)

IND @ UTA (O/U: 242.0, Spread: 7.0)

• Pace: IND (7th) vs UTA (16th)
• Off Eff: IND (7th) 🔥 vs UTA (23rd)
• Def Eff: IND (21st) vs UTA (29th) 🎯

Legend:

🏃 = Significant pace mismatch

🔥 = Strong offense vs weak defense

🎯 = Poor defensive team

⚠️ = Blowout risk

Bold = Favored team

PG - Ryan Rollins ($3,100)

Ryan Rollins ($3,100) is shaping up to be one of the most intriguing value plays on tonight’s slate. With a 27.95 DK-point projection and a 1.0 FPPM rate, he offers an impressive 9.01x value at near-minimum salary. The matchup against OKC is favorable for his position, as the Thunder play at one of the fastest paces in the league, which could lead to extra opportunities during his projected 28 minutes on the court. Rollins also boasts a strong 60.28% Boom percentage and appears in nearly 28% of optimal lineups, signaling that he’s more than just a dart throw—he’s a legitimate path to unlocking higher-priced stars in your lineup.

However, with expected ownership nearing 55%, Rollins will be extremely chalky, so it’s worth considering whether you’re comfortable eating that level of exposure in tournaments. The upside here seems justified given his projection and value metrics, but his recent performances raise some concerns about volatility—he hasn’t cracked double-digit DK points in three of his last five games despite decent minutes. If you believe he can capitalize on this fast-paced environment and hit his ceiling, he’s hard to fade at this price point. Just know you’ll need to differentiate elsewhere if you roster him in GPPs.

More PG Plays:

• AJ Green ($3,300)
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($11,000)
• Jamal Murray ($7,400)

SG - AJ Green ($3,300)

At just $3,300, AJ Green projects as one of the best value plays on the slate, offering a 7.6x return on his salary with a projection of 25.15 DK points. He’s expected to play 29 minutes against OKC in what should be a fast-paced game environment, which suits his scoring profile as a three-point specialist. His 0.87 FPPM isn’t elite, but it’s solid enough for someone at this price point, especially when factoring in his 44% Boom percentage and appearance in over 25% of optimal lineups. If he gets hot from beyond the arc like he did against Memphis (3-for-6 from deep), he could easily hit or exceed value tonight.

The biggest concern here is ownership—at nearly 33%, Green will be one of the chalkiest plays on the slate. While that’s justified given his combination of low salary and projected opportunity, it does limit your leverage in tournaments if he underperforms. That said, at this price and with his minutes likely locked in for Milwaukee tonight, fading him entirely feels risky unless you’re confident in other punt options at guard. Ultimately, Green is a strong play for cash games and viable chalk for GPPs if you’re comfortable eating some ownership to free up salary for higher-ceiling studs elsewhere.

More SG Plays:

• Jamal Murray ($7,400)
• Malik Monk ($7,200)
• Anthony Edwards ($9,500)

SF - DeMar DeRozan ($6,300)

At $6,300, DeMar DeRozan offers strong value tonight in a matchup against the Timberwolves. Projected for 36.4 DK points and carrying a 5.8x value, he’s priced well below his ceiling for someone expected to play 36+ minutes in a competitive game environment. While his 1.01 FPPM isn’t elite, it’s steady enough to take advantage of his heavy workload and consistent scoring ability. The Timberwolves rank as a middle-of-the-pack defense overall, but their pace (4th fastest in the league) creates additional opportunities for DeRozan to rack up points and peripherals. With a Boom% of 30.2% and appearing in 15% of optimal lineups, he’s clearly one of the stronger mid-tier plays on the slate.

The main consideration here is ownership—DeRozan is projected to be rostered by 22.6% of the field, making him one of the chalkier options tonight. While that may scare some off in tournaments, it’s worth noting that his price point and role make him an efficient piece of chalk rather than bad chalk. He’s shown a stable floor recently with DK outputs hovering around the mid-20s to low-30s even when his shot hasn’t been falling consistently, which mitigates risk at this salary range. Given his high minutes projection and favorable game script, DeRozan is a solid option for both cash games and GPPs despite the elevated ownership levels.

More SF Plays:

• Michael Porter Jr. ($5,900)
• Devin Vassell ($6,000)
• Trey Murphy III ($7,800)

PF - Aaron Gordon ($4,500)

Aaron Gordon ($4,500) stands out as one of the best value plays on the slate tonight against the Pelicans. At his price point, a 6.1x value projection with 30 minutes of playing time is hard to ignore, especially when paired with his solid 0.91 FPPM rate. New Orleans has been vulnerable in the frontcourt, and while Gordon’s recent production has been inconsistent, his ability to contribute across multiple stat categories (points, rebounds, assists) gives him a strong floor for cash games and upside for tournaments. His 28.6% Boom Rate ranks among the best at this salary tier, making him an appealing mid-range option.

The main concern here is ownership, as Gordon is projected to be rostered by 20.6% of the field—well above average. While he’s clearly a strong value play, this level of chalk can be risky in GPPs given his volatility and limited ceiling compared to other options in this range. That said, his inclusion in 16.3% of optimal lineups suggests that he’s still worth considering even at high ownership if you’re looking for stability in your builds. If you’re playing large-field tournaments and want to pivot off the chalk, there may be other lower-owned plays with similar upside—but for cash games or balanced GPP lineups, Gordon fits nicely into most constructions tonight.

More PF Plays:

• Jaren Jackson Jr. ($8,300)
• Pascal Siakam ($7,600)
• Michael Porter Jr. ($5,900)

C - Nikola Jokic ($12,300)

Nikola Jokic is the most expensive player on the slate at $12,300, but he’s also projected for a massive 68.8 DK points with an elite 1.91 FPPM rate. His matchup against the Pelicans is favorable, as New Orleans has struggled to defend skilled big men this season, and Jokic’s ability to dominate as a scorer, rebounder, and facilitator gives him one of the highest ceilings in DFS. Over his last four games, he’s topped 60 DK points three times, including an 83.3-point explosion against Charlotte just two nights ago. With a Boom% of 42.3% and appearing in over 22% of optimal lineups, Jokic offers strong value even at his hefty salary.

The main concern here is ownership—he’s expected to be rostered by 31.7% of the field, making him one of the chalkiest plays on the slate. However, this isn’t bad chalk given his consistency and upside; fading him could be risky in both cash games and GPPs unless you have a strong pivot option with similar upside. The Nuggets will likely lean heavily on Jokic again in what should be a competitive game environment against New Orleans, so locking him in feels like a solid move despite the high ownership percentage. If you’re building around stars and scrubs tonight, Jokic is clearly one of the top-tier studs worth prioritizing.

More C Plays:

• Victor Wembanyama ($10,800)
• Jaren Jackson Jr. ($8,300)
• Domantas Sabonis ($9,800)

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