FREE 02/05 NBA Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s 9-game NBA DFS slate offers plenty to dig into, with a mix of high-scoring environments and potential value spots. Two games stand out from a totals perspective: the Spurs at Hawks (243.0) tips off at 7:00 PM ET, and the Pelicans at Nuggets (239.0) closes out the night at 9:00 PM ET. Both matchups bring high pace and strong offensive potential, making them prime targets for DFS builds. The early game could be an appealing spot to grab exposure right away, while the late game offers some intriguing late-swap opportunities.

With most games falling within a two-hour window, lineup construction will likely focus on balancing these marquee matchups with other sneaky plays across the slate. Prioritizing players in those high-total games could pay off, but don’t overlook value elsewhere that could open up as news breaks closer to lock.

Game Environment Analysis

SAS @ ATL (O/U: 243.0, Spread: 4.5)

• Pace: SAS (15th) vs ATL (2nd) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: SAS (16th) vs ATL (22nd)
• Def Eff: SAS (16th) vs ATL (17th)

CLE @ DET (O/U: 235.0, Spread: 5.0)

• Pace: CLE (6th) vs DET (12th)
• Off Eff: CLE (1st) 🔥 vs DET (18th)
• Def Eff: CLE (8th) vs DET (12th)

MIL @ CHA (O/U: 223.0, Spread: 10.5)

• Pace: MIL (9th) vs CHA (21st) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: MIL (12th) vs CHA (28th)
• Def Eff: MIL (10th) vs CHA (14th)

WAS @ BKN (O/U: 218.0, Spread: -5.0)

• Pace: WAS (4th) vs BKN (29th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: WAS (30th) vs BKN (27th)
• Def Eff: WAS (30th) 🎯 vs BKN (24th)

MIA @ PHI (O/U: 220.0, Spread: 1.0)

• Pace: MIA (27th) vs PHI (28th)
• Off Eff: MIA (17th) vs PHI (19th)
• Def Eff: MIA (11th) vs PHI (22nd)

MEM @ TOR (O/U: 236.5, Spread: 10.5)

• Pace: MEM (1st) vs TOR (11th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: MEM (5th) 🔥 vs TOR (23rd)
• Def Eff: MEM (6th) vs TOR (27th) 🎯

CHI @ MIN (O/U: 226.0, Spread: -11.5)

• Pace: CHI (3rd) vs MIN (25th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: CHI (14th) vs MIN (13th)
• Def Eff: CHI (23rd) vs MIN (7th)

NOP @ DEN (O/U: 239.0, Spread: -10.5)

• Pace: NOP (13th) vs DEN (5th)
• Off Eff: NOP (25th) vs DEN (3rd) 🔥
• Def Eff: NOP (28th) 🎯 vs DEN (20th)

GSW @ UTA (O/U: 224.0, Spread: 5.5)

• Pace: GSW (17th) vs UTA (16th)
• Off Eff: GSW (20th) vs UTA (24th)
• Def Eff: GSW (9th) vs UTA (29th) 🎯

Legend:

🏃 = Significant pace mismatch

🔥 = Strong offense vs weak defense

🎯 = Poor defensive team

⚠️ = Blowout risk

Bold = Favored team

PG - Jordan Poole ($6,500)

Jordan Poole is an intriguing option tonight at $6,500, especially given his strong projection of 37.0 DK points and solid 5.7x value. The matchup against Brooklyn should provide a favorable game environment for fantasy production, as the Nets play at a top-10 pace and rank in the bottom half of the league in defensive efficiency. Poole’s 1.09 FPPM and projected 34 minutes of court time offer a strong floor for cash games, while his 30.8% Boom rate makes him a viable GPP target as well. Despite a few recent duds, his scoring upside and ability to contribute across multiple categories keep him firmly in play.

That said, Poole’s expected ownership of 20.9% is something to weigh carefully. While he’s priced fairly and appears in nearly 16% of optimal lineups, this level of chalk could limit his appeal in tournaments if he doesn’t hit his ceiling. He’ll need to shake off some inefficiency (shooting just 34% from the field over his last four games) to deliver on those projections, but if you believe in the bounce-back narrative against a softer Brooklyn defense, he’s worth exposure in both formats. Just be mindful of how you differentiate elsewhere in your lineup if you’re eating the chalk here.

More PG Plays:

• Tyrese Maxey ($10,000)
• Stephen Curry ($8,300)
• Anthony Edwards ($9,800)

SG - Gradey Dick ($4,200)

Gradey Dick ($4,200) stands out as a strong value play tonight in a matchup against Memphis. With a projected 30 minutes on the court and an impressive 5.99x value rating, he offers solid upside for his price. Over his last four games, Dick has averaged 24 DK points while consistently playing around 30 minutes, showcasing his ability to hit value even without massive peripheral stats. Memphis struggles defensively against wings, and with Dick’s efficient shooting (50% from three over his last two games), he’s well-positioned to take advantage of this spot. His 26.7% Boom rate and inclusion in nearly 20% of optimal lineups back up his viability as a mid-tier option.

At 20.6% projected ownership, Dick will be one of the more popular plays on the slate, but the chalk feels justified given his price and role in Toronto’s rotation. While he doesn’t offer much ceiling beyond the low-to-mid 20s in DK points due to limited contributions outside of scoring, his consistent minutes and efficiency make him a safe option for cash games or as filler in GPP lineups. Just keep in mind that fading him could create leverage if you believe Memphis can limit his output or Toronto leans on other scorers tonight.

More SG Plays:

• Anthony Edwards ($9,800)
• Jamal Murray ($7,700)
• Ja’Kobe Walter ($3,200)

SF - Ja’Kobe Walter ($3,200)

Ja’Kobe Walter ($3,200) stands out as a strong value play tonight against Memphis. With RJ Barrett sidelined, Walter is projected to see 27 minutes in the starting lineup, and his recent performances suggest he can deliver at this price point. Over his last three games, he’s averaging 21.3 DK points while shooting efficiently from deep (6-for-13 3P during that span). At just $3,200, his 7.02x value projection is hard to ignore, especially given his 31.1% Boom Rate and a spot in nearly 12% of optimal lineups. Memphis ranks middle of the pack defensively against SG/SFs, so there’s nothing here matchup-wise that should scare you off.

However, at 29.2% ownership, Walter will be one of the chalkier plays on the slate. While this level of popularity might make some hesitant in tournaments, it’s worth noting that his price tag and role make him difficult to fade entirely. He’s shown consistent production when given extended minutes and has flashed upside with multiple double-digit scoring games recently. If you’re playing large-field GPPs and want to differentiate your lineup construction, pivoting elsewhere could make sense—but don’t overthink it in cash games or smaller contests where his value is undeniable.

More SF Plays:

• Scottie Barnes ($9,300)
• Michael Porter Jr. ($6,400)
• Trey Murphy III ($8,100)

PF - Naz Reid ($6,300)

Naz Reid ($6,300) is a strong mid-range option tonight, especially given his projected 33 minutes and solid 1.07 FPPM production. He’s coming off a monster 47.3 DK-point performance in 40 minutes against Sacramento, showcasing his scoring ability and defensive upside with two blocks. While he likely won’t see the same shot volume as that game, the matchup against Chicago is favorable for bigs, particularly with Reid’s ability to stretch the floor and knock down threes (5-for-9 from deep last game). At 5.62x value and a 27% Boom Rate, Reid provides an appealing mix of ceiling and floor.

The one concern here is ownership—20.3% projected ownership is quite high compared to field averages, making him chalky in tournaments. That said, it feels justified given his recent role and increased opportunities with Julius Randle sidelined. Reid ranks third in Tournament Hero GPP Rank for good reason: his combination of price, upside, and matchup make him hard to fade in this spot. While you might consider pivoting in large-field tournaments to differentiate your lineup, Reid remains a strong play for cash games or smaller contests where eating some chalk is less risky.

More PF Plays:

• Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,800)
• Bam Adebayo ($8,000)
• Michael Porter Jr. ($6,400)

C - Victor Wembanyama ($10,800)

Victor Wembanyama ($10,800) is one of the most intriguing plays on tonight’s slate. With a 1.68 FPPM rate and a projection of 57.2 DK points, he offers strong value at 5.3x despite his hefty price tag. The Spurs’ centerpiece has been remarkably consistent, putting up at least 55 DK points in three of his last four games, including a ceiling performance of 66.3 DK points against Indiana. Atlanta ranks middle-of-the-pack defensively, but they’ve struggled against versatile big men, particularly those who can stretch the floor and protect the rim—two areas where Wemby thrives. His ability to rack up blocks (15 in his last four games) and contribute across multiple categories makes him a strong anchor for both cash and GPP lineups.

At 17.4% projected ownership, Wembanyama will be one of the more popular plays on the slate, but it’s chalk that feels justified given his upside and consistency. He appears in 16.5% of optimal lineups, which supports his viability as a foundational piece tonight. While there’s some risk tied to his high salary in case he doesn’t hit his ceiling, his recent performances suggest he’s worth paying up for in this spot. With projected minutes hovering around 34 in what could be a competitive game environment against Atlanta, Wemby should have plenty of opportunities to deliver another big performance while justifying both his price tag and ownership levels.

More C Plays:

• Nikola Jokic ($12,800)
• Kelly Olynyk ($3,300)
• Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,800)

Good luck today! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Player Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!