FREE 02/21 NBA Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s 6-game NBA slate offers a mix of intriguing opportunities and potential traps. The action tips off at 7:00 PM ET, and the highest total on the board belongs to the Knicks at Cavaliers (240.5), which should feature plenty of fantasy-friendly pace and scoring. Closing out the night, the Pelicans visit the Mavericks at 8:30 PM ET with another strong total of 237.5, making it a game to monitor closely for DFS lineups. These two matchups stand out as key targets, while some of the other games come with slower paces and lower implied totals that may limit their appeal.

The condensed slate means roster construction will be critical, especially when deciding how much exposure to get from those high-total games versus taking value shots elsewhere. Ownership could concentrate on a few popular plays, so finding ways to differentiate without sacrificing upside will be important.

Game Environment Analysis

NYK @ CLE (O/U: 240.5, Spread: -8.5)

• Pace: NYK (24th) vs CLE (5th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: NYK (3rd) vs CLE (1st) 🔥
• Def Eff: NYK (20th) vs CLE (8th)

MEM @ ORL (O/U: 226.0, Spread: 3.0)

• Pace: MEM (1st) vs ORL (29th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: MEM (6th) vs ORL (29th)
• Def Eff: MEM (7th) vs ORL (2nd)

MIL @ WAS (O/U: 230.0, Spread: 6.0)

• Pace: MIL (8th) vs WAS (4th)
• Off Eff: MIL (12th) vs WAS (30th)
• Def Eff: MIL (10th) vs WAS (30th) 🎯

MIA @ TOR (O/U: 219.0, Spread: 3.0)

• Pace: MIA (27th) vs TOR (12th)
• Off Eff: MIA (20th) vs TOR (25th)
• Def Eff: MIA (12th) vs TOR (26th) 🎯

NOP @ DAL (O/U: 237.5, Spread: -5.5)

• Pace: NOP (11th) vs DAL (17th)
• Off Eff: NOP (24th) vs DAL (7th) 🔥
• Def Eff: NOP (28th) 🎯 vs DAL (14th)

DET @ SAS (O/U: 236.5, Spread: 4.5)

• Pace: DET (13th) vs SAS (14th)
• Off Eff: DET (15th) vs SAS (14th)
• Def Eff: DET (11th) vs SAS (17th)

Legend:

🏃 = Significant pace mismatch

🔥 = Strong offense vs weak defense

🎯 = Poor defensive team

⚠️ = Blowout risk

Bold = Favored team

PG - Jalen Brunson ($8,800)

Jalen Brunson is in a strong spot tonight at $8,800 against Cleveland. While the Cavs are known for their defense, particularly with Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley protecting the paint, Brunson’s role as a primary ball handler gives him opportunities to rack up points and assists regardless of the matchup. His 1.25 FPPM combined with a projected 37 minutes and a solid 5.24x value make him an appealing mid-to-high-priced option. Over his last five games, he’s shown both consistency and upside, exceeding 44 DK points in three of those contests, including a 49.3-point performance in his most recent outing. With the Knicks relying heavily on him offensively, especially in close games, he has clear paths to another ceiling game.

Ownership-wise, Brunson is expected to be moderately owned at 12.1%, which is slightly above the field average but not overwhelming chalk. This makes him an excellent tournament play since he ranks third in Hero GPP Rank and appears in 28.2% of optimal lineups—numbers that indicate both upside and reliability. The moderate ownership gives you some leverage without being contrarian just for the sake of it. If you’re targeting this game environment, which projects to be competitive given Cleveland’s slow pace but tight spreads, Brunson stands out as one of the best options on either side of the matchup.

More PG Plays:

• De’Aaron Fox ($8,200)
• Cade Cunningham ($10,300)
• Immanuel Quickley ($6,200)

SG - De’Aaron Fox ($8,200)

De’Aaron Fox ($8,200) is in a prime spot tonight against the Pistons, a team that ranks near the bottom of the league in defensive efficiency and struggles to contain opposing guards. With a strong projection of 45.61 DK points (5.56x value), Fox offers both a high ceiling and solid floor thanks to his 1.27 FPPM production and expected 36 minutes of court time. His ability to rack up points, assists, and defensive stats makes him an all-around contributor, which aligns perfectly with Detroit’s inability to defend dynamic backcourt players. The game environment should also work in Fox’s favor, as this matchup has sneaky shootout potential given Detroit’s fast pace and poor defense.

At 18.8% projected ownership, Fox is moderately chalky but not overwhelming, making him a reasonable play in both cash games and tournaments. His 30.1% Boom percentage (second-highest among guards) and 24.4% Optimal lineup rate suggest he’s one of the top point guard options on the slate despite his price tag creeping into the mid-$8k range. If you’re looking for a high-upside play with reliable usage—especially given his recent performances without Victor Wembanyama—Fox stands out as one of the best ways to attack this slate without overthinking ownership concerns.

More SG Plays:

• Kevin Porter Jr. ($4,200)
• Vince Williams Jr. ($3,100)
• Donovan Mitchell ($8,300)

SF - Kyle Kuzma ($6,900)

Kyle Kuzma at $6,900 is shaping up as one of the stronger plays on this slate, and the numbers back it up. With a projection of 36.5 DK points and a solid 5.3x value rating, Kuzma offers both a high floor and upside in a favorable matchup against Washington. His 1.07 FPPM combined with a projected 34 minutes of court time puts him in an excellent position to deliver for his salary. The Wizards rank among the weaker defensive teams in the league, and Kuzma’s ability to contribute across multiple categories (points, rebounds, and occasional assists) makes him particularly appealing here. He’s also popping in over 26% of optimal lineups, which speaks to his consistency and role security.

The only drawback is his ownership, projected at 25.5%, which makes him one of the chalkier options on the slate. However, this chalk feels justified given his recent performance and role since joining Milwaukee. With Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard potentially out or limited, Kuzma has taken on more offensive responsibility, as evidenced by his recent double-double against Minnesota (42.8 DK points). While he’s not without risk—his floor has dipped into the low-20s recently—this game environment should give him plenty of opportunities to hit value or even exceed it. If you’re comfortable eating some chalk, Kuzma is a strong mid-tier option tonight with legitimate upside for tournaments.

More SF Plays:

• Zion Williamson ($8,500)
• Vince Williams Jr. ($3,100)
• Max Christie ($5,400)

PF - PJ Washington ($7,200)

PJ Washington ($7,200) is in a strong position tonight against the Pelicans, assuming he suits up. While there’s some risk with his ankle status, the Mavericks are desperate for frontcourt depth, and Washington could see significant minutes as a small-ball PF/C option if cleared. His 1.23 FPPM and projected 32 minutes make him an efficient producer at this price point, especially given his ability to contribute across multiple stat categories. The Pelicans rank middle of the pack defensively against bigs, and with Dallas thin up front, Washington’s role could expand further. His 5.45x value projection and appearance in nearly 22% of optimal lineups highlight his upside in this spot.

However, the 31.3% ownership is something to weigh carefully in tournaments. While chalk isn’t inherently bad, it’s worth considering whether Washington has enough ceiling to truly separate from the field given his $7,200 salary. His Boom% (24.97%) indicates solid upside but not elite tournament-winning potential compared to other options at similar ownership levels or price points. If he plays and sees closer to his usual high-30s minutes workload like we saw in late January, he could justify the chalk tag—but be mindful of potential minute limitations coming off injury when deciding whether to lock him into your lineups tonight.

More PF Plays:

• Bam Adebayo ($8,100)
• Zion Williamson ($8,500)
• Paolo Banchero ($8,300)

C - Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,800)

Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,800) is in an intriguing spot tonight against Cleveland. While the Cavs are known for their strong interior defense with Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen, Towns has been on a tear, averaging 30.4 points and 13.8 rebounds over his last five games. He’s projected for 53.4 DraftKings points with a solid 5.45x value, and his ability to stretch the floor (10 threes made in his last three games) could mitigate Cleveland’s rim protection. At 1.44 FPPM and a projected 37 minutes, he has both the volume and efficiency to deliver on this price tag.

The ownership (32.3%) is high but justified given his recent production and ceiling potential (31.6% Boom). While he’ll be chalky, Towns appears in nearly 20% of optimal lineups, signaling that he’s worth eating the ownership in most contests. The game environment is worth noting too—Cleveland plays at a slower pace, but Minnesota relies heavily on Towns offensively, which keeps him matchup-proof most nights. If you’re looking for a stable anchor with upside in tournaments or cash games, Towns makes sense as one of the slate’s top plays despite the popularity.

More C Plays:

• Bam Adebayo ($8,100)
• Jalen Duren ($6,700)
• Wendell Carter Jr. ($4,300)

Good luck today! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Player Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!