FREE 02/24 NBA Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s 7-game NBA slate brings a lot to like, especially with two standout matchups in terms of game environment. The Nuggets and Pacers tip things off at 7:00 PM ET with a massive 246.0 total, the highest on the slate, offering plenty of DFS potential in what should be a high-paced, back-and-forth affair. Right behind it is the Bulls and Sixers matchup (234.0 total), also at 7:00 PM ET, where Philadelphia’s stars could dominate in a favorable spot. With most of the action concentrated early and no games tipping after 9:00 PM ET, lineup construction will require sharp decisions upfront.

This slate feels like one where targeting those high-total games could pay off, but there’s also an edge in finding value plays from slower-paced matchups that others might overlook. Balancing exposure to chalky spots while staying different elsewhere will be key tonight.

Game Environment Analysis

LAC @ DET (O/U: 222.5, Spread: -1.5)

• Pace: LAC (20th) vs DET (8th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: LAC (21st) vs DET (14th)
• Def Eff: LAC (5th) vs DET (11th)

DEN @ IND (O/U: 246.0, Spread: 4.5)

• Pace: DEN (6th) vs IND (7th)
• Off Eff: DEN (2nd) 🔥 vs IND (7th) 🔥
• Def Eff: DEN (18th) vs IND (20th)

CHI @ PHI (O/U: 234.0, Spread: -4.0)

• Pace: CHI (3rd) vs PHI (28th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: CHI (17th) vs PHI (22nd)
• Def Eff: CHI (25th) 🎯 vs PHI (24th)

BKN @ WAS (O/U: 217.0, Spread: 3.0)

• Pace: BKN (30th) vs WAS (4th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: BKN (27th) vs WAS (30th)
• Def Eff: BKN (17th) vs WAS (29th) 🎯

MIA @ ATL (O/U: 231.0, Spread: -1.5)

• Pace: MIA (27th) vs ATL (2nd) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: MIA (20th) vs ATL (19th)
• Def Eff: MIA (13th) vs ATL (19th)

MIN @ OKC (O/U: 228.5, Spread: -12.0)

• Pace: MIN (25th) vs OKC (11th)
• Off Eff: MIN (13th) vs OKC (5th)
• Def Eff: MIN (6th) vs OKC (1st)

POR @ UTA (O/U: 232.0, Spread: 6.5)

• Pace: POR (19th) vs UTA (15th)
• Off Eff: POR (26th) vs UTA (23rd)
• Def Eff: POR (23rd) vs UTA (30th) 🎯

Legend:

🏃 = Significant pace mismatch

🔥 = Strong offense vs weak defense

🎯 = Poor defensive team

⚠️ = Blowout risk

Bold = Favored team

PG - James Harden ($9,700)

James Harden ($9,700) stands out as one of the top plays on tonight’s slate, and for good reason. He’s projected for 53.8 DraftKings points with an elite 1.49 FPPM and a Boom% of 36.7%, making him a high-ceiling option in a favorable matchup against the Pistons. Detroit has struggled defensively all season, particularly at containing opposing guards, ranking near the bottom of the league in defensive efficiency. Harden should see around 36 minutes in this game, and given his ability to contribute across all categories (as evidenced by his recent stat lines), he offers strong value at 5.55x his salary. The Clippers will likely lean on him heavily to exploit this matchup, which boosts both his floor and ceiling.

At 15.7% projected ownership, Harden is moderately popular but not overwhelmingly chalky, which makes him an appealing option for tournaments. He appears in over 22% of optimal lineups, meaning the field may still be slightly underweight relative to his upside. His recent performances—topping 67 DK points in two of his last three games—showcase just how dominant he can be when given the opportunity to take over offensively and facilitate for teammates. With Detroit’s lackluster defense and the potential for high usage, Harden is well-positioned to deliver another big performance tonight while offering solid leverage in GPPs at this ownership level.

More PG Plays:

• Tyrese Maxey ($9,000)
• Tyler Herro ($8,500)
• Anthony Edwards ($9,300)

SG - Quentin Grimes ($5,600)

Quentin Grimes is shaping up as a strong mid-tier option at $5,600 in tonight’s matchup against Chicago. His projected 33.96 DK points give him an excellent value of 6.06x, and with a Boom% of 34.44%, he has legitimate upside for tournaments. Grimes has been logging heavy minutes, averaging over 35 per game recently, which bodes well for his ability to produce across multiple categories. He’s been consistent on the glass and as a secondary playmaker, while his shooting efficiency from deep gives him additional ceiling potential in competitive games like this one.

The ownership is worth discussing here, as Grimes is expected to come in at 26.5%, making him one of the chalkier plays on the slate. While that might scare off some tournament players, the high Optimal% (21.94%) suggests the field isn’t necessarily overvaluing him. With Chicago ranking middle-of-the-pack defensively against shooting guards, this isn’t a matchup to avoid, and Grimes’ combination of minutes security and peripheral stats makes him a worthwhile option even as chalk. If you’re looking for safe exposure to this price range with upside baked in, Grimes fits the bill nicely tonight.

More SG Plays:

• Kelly Oubre Jr. ($5,500)
• Anthony Edwards ($9,300)
• Jamal Murray ($7,700)

SF - Brice Sensabaugh ($4,200)

Brice Sensabaugh ($4,200) is shaping up as one of the most appealing value plays on tonight’s slate, and the numbers back it up. Projected for 27.75 DK points at just $4,200, he boasts a strong 6.61x value and ranks first in tournament appeal with a Boom% of nearly 37%. Slated for 28 minutes against Portland, a defense that has struggled all season, Sensabaugh’s near point-per-minute production (0.99 FPPM) makes him a strong candidate to outperform his price tag. With Collin Sexton and John Collins sidelined, his role should remain secure, giving him plenty of opportunities to contribute across the board.

At 43% projected ownership, Sensabaugh will be chalky, but it feels like justified chalk given his salary and projection. He appears in over 23% of optimal lineups and provides much-needed salary relief while offering upside in tournaments. If you’re playing large-field GPPs, you’ll need to decide whether to eat the chalk or pivot elsewhere for leverage. However, fading him comes with risk—he’s in a great spot to hit value or better against a soft Portland defense in what should be an up-tempo game environment.

More SF Plays:

• Deni Avdija ($6,300)
• Kelly Oubre Jr. ($5,500)
• Paul George ($7,100)

PF - Deni Avdija ($6,300)

Deni Avdija stands out as a strong mid-range option at $6,300 in a favorable matchup against the Jazz. With a solid 1.13 FPPM and projected for 32 minutes, he’s delivering excellent value at 5.7x, backed by a projection of 36.1 DK points. Utah has struggled defensively this season, ranking near the bottom in defensive efficiency, which should give Avdija plenty of opportunities to fill the stat sheet. His recent performances show upside as well—he dropped 44.5 DK points against the Lakers just two games ago while showcasing his ability to contribute across multiple categories.

At 25.3% ownership, Avdija is shaping up as one of the chalkier plays on the slate, but it feels justified given his combination of price, role, and matchup. He’s appearing in over 21% of optimal lineups with a Boom% north of 30%, signaling that he has legitimate upside for tournaments despite his popularity. If you’re comfortable eating chalk here, he offers both ceiling and consistency in a game environment where Portland will likely lean on him for secondary scoring and playmaking. Just be mindful of leveraging elsewhere if you’re locking him into GPP lineups.

More PF Plays:

• Jerami Grant ($5,200)
• Paul George ($7,100)
• Bam Adebayo ($8,300)

C - Kyle Filipowski ($4,600)

Kyle Filipowski is shaping up as one of the most intriguing value plays on tonight’s slate at just $4,600. Despite coming off the bench with Walker Kessler back in the starting lineup, Filipowski’s 1.07 FPPM and projected 28 minutes make him a strong option against Portland. The Trail Blazers rank poorly in defensive metrics across the board, especially against big men, and this matchup should provide plenty of opportunities for Filipowski to capitalize. His 6.5x value projection and nearly 38% Boom Rate highlight his upside at this price point, making him a clear consideration in both cash games and tournaments.

The ownership is high at 32.7%, but it feels justified given his role and production potential relative to salary. While he’s unlikely to replicate his ceiling game from earlier this month (20 points and 10 rebounds in extended minutes), Filipowski doesn’t need that kind of performance to pay off at this price tag. He projects as one of the top tournament values on the slate, appearing in 17.2% of optimal lineups, so while you’ll want some exposure, it’s worth considering how you build around him to differentiate from the field in GPPs.

More C Plays:

• Nikola Jokic ($12,000)
• Ivica Zubac ($7,500)
• Bam Adebayo ($8,300)

Good luck tonight! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Player Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!