FREE 02/27 NBA Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s 5-game NBA slate offers a mix of intriguing DFS opportunities, highlighted by two high-total matchups that should draw plenty of attention. The Denver-Milwaukee game at 8:00 PM ET boasts the slate’s highest total at 241.0, featuring two MVP-caliber players in a fast-paced environment. Right behind it is the New Orleans-Phoenix matchup at 9:00 PM ET with a 237.0 total, setting up another high-scoring affair with plenty of fantasy potential. The rest of the slate includes slower-paced games, so focusing on these high-total spots could be key to building competitive lineups.

With only five games on tap and staggered start times, roster construction will require careful planning and flexibility. Late swap could be crucial if news breaks closer to lock, particularly for those targeting value plays or stacking the marquee matchups. Prioritizing the right exposure to these high-total games while balancing salary will likely separate the field tonight.

Game Environment Analysis

GSW @ ORL (O/U: 212.5, Spread: 4.5)

• Pace: GSW (15th) vs ORL (29th)
• Off Eff: GSW (15th) vs ORL (28th)
• Def Eff: GSW (9th) vs ORL (2nd)

DEN @ MIL (O/U: 241.0, Spread: 3.5)

• Pace: DEN (5th) vs MIL (10th)
• Off Eff: DEN (2nd) vs MIL (13th)
• Def Eff: DEN (17th) vs MIL (10th)

CHA @ DAL (O/U: 222.0, Spread: -9.5)

• Pace: CHA (22nd) vs DAL (17th)
• Off Eff: CHA (29th) vs DAL (9th) 🔥
• Def Eff: CHA (20th) vs DAL (14th)

NOP @ PHX (O/U: 237.0, Spread: -7.5)

• Pace: NOP (8th) vs PHX (23rd) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: NOP (26th) vs PHX (10th) 🔥
• Def Eff: NOP (28th) 🎯 vs PHX (27th) 🎯

MIN @ LAL (O/U: 229.0, Spread: -6.0)

• Pace: MIN (24th) vs LAL (21st)
• Off Eff: MIN (12th) vs LAL (11th)
• Def Eff: MIN (7th) vs LAL (12th)

Legend:

🏃 = Significant pace mismatch

🔥 = Strong offense vs weak defense

🎯 = Poor defensive team

⚠️ = Blowout risk

Bold = Favored team

PG - Devin Booker ($8,800)

Devin Booker ($8,800) is in a strong spot tonight against the Pelicans, offering both upside and consistency at his price point. Over his last three games, he’s averaging 50.8 DK points while playing heavy minutes (37.0 per game), showcasing his ability to stuff the stat sheet with scoring and assists. His 1.29 FPPM reflects his efficiency, and with a Boom% of 32.8%, he has clear tournament-winning potential. The Pelicans rank middle-of-the-pack defensively, but their fast-paced style could create more opportunities for Booker to capitalize on his high usage rate. At a projected value of 5.44x, he’s one of the better mid-to-high-tier plays on this slate.

Booker’s moderate ownership (20.8%) aligns with his optimal lineup rate (19.4%), making him appropriately chalky for tournaments without being overexposed in the field. His ability to produce across multiple categories provides a solid floor, while his recent performances highlight the ceiling you need in GPPs at this salary range. If you’re looking for a safe yet explosive option in a game that could stay competitive, Booker fits the bill nicely as both a primary or secondary piece in your lineups tonight.

More PG Plays:

• Luka Doncic ($11,000)
• Anthony Edwards ($9,100)
• Kyrie Irving ($9,200)

SG - Trey Murphy III ($7,900)

Trey Murphy III is in a strong spot tonight against the Suns, and his $7,900 salary feels justified given his recent production and role. He’s projected for 43.2 DK points, which equates to an excellent 5.47x value, and he’s been logging heavy minutes (37 projected) while maintaining solid efficiency at 1.17 FPPM. The Suns’ defense isn’t a lockdown unit on the wings, and with Murphy consistently contributing across multiple stat categories—including steals and blocks recently—he has a well-rounded ceiling in this matchup. His Boom% of 33.3% and appearance in 27% of optimal lineups further highlight his upside as one of the slate’s top tournament plays.

The 21.2% ownership is on the higher side, but it’s warranted given Murphy’s form and metrics. Chalk isn’t always bad when a player has both safety and upside, which Murphy clearly offers here. His ability to produce in all areas of the game makes him less reliant on pure scoring, which is valuable in what could be a competitive environment against Phoenix. While he won’t be sneaky, fading him feels risky considering his consistent involvement and the lack of glaring red flags in his profile tonight. If you’re looking for stability with legitimate upside, Murphy is worth locking into your builds despite the elevated ownership.

More SG Plays:

• Bradley Beal ($6,800)
• Max Christie ($5,100)
• Anthony Edwards ($9,100)

SF - Bradley Beal ($6,800)

Bradley Beal is priced at $6,800 tonight in a matchup against the Pelicans, and while his questionable tag due to calf tightness adds some risk, he’s still worth a hard look if cleared to play. He’s projected for 36.86 DK points with a solid 5.42x value, thanks in part to his heavy minutes load (projected for 36) and consistent production as a 1.02 FPPM player. New Orleans has been middle-of-the-pack defensively, but their pace provides an uptick in opportunities for Beal, who has shown his ceiling with recent performances like the 55.3 DK-point outing against Memphis. His ability to contribute across multiple categories—scoring, assists, and even defensive stats—makes him a versatile option in this price range.

Ownership is sitting at 20.1%, which is moderate but not overwhelming for someone appearing in nearly 27% of optimal lineups. While he may not be sneaky, the chalk seems justified given his strong value metrics and tournament rank (2nd). If Beal ends up ruled out, pivoting to Grayson Allen or Royce O’Neale could open up some salary relief, but if active, Beal offers both safety and upside in what should be a competitive game environment against New Orleans. Keep an eye on injury news leading up to lock—his status will likely shape roster construction tonight.

More SF Plays:

• Franz Wagner ($8,400)
• Michael Porter Jr. ($6,100)
• Max Christie ($5,100)

PF - Karlo Matkovic ($4,000)

Karlo Matkovic ($4,000) offers intriguing value on tonight’s slate with his 5.3x projection and a solid 25.5% optimal lineup rate. At just $4K, he’s projected for 24 minutes in a matchup against Phoenix, which isn’t an elite defensive unit in the frontcourt. Matkovic has shown flashes of upside recently, including a career-high 19 points in just 21 minutes against San Antonio. His per-minute production (0.88 FPPM) is respectable for his price point, and his ability to rack up peripheral stats—like blocks and steals—makes him a viable play in tournaments. With moderate ownership (17.1%), he’s not sneaky, but he’s also not so chalky that you need to avoid him.

The key here is balancing his low salary with realistic expectations. Matkovic has surpassed 30 DK points twice in February but also logged single-digit DK outputs in limited minutes during that same stretch. If you’re taking a shot on him, understand that the volatility is baked into both his role and price tag. That said, at $4K, he doesn’t need to do much to pay off value, and the potential for extended run remains enticing given New Orleans’ commitment to developing their younger players. In GPPs, he’s a strong salary-saving option who could unlock higher-priced studs elsewhere in your lineup without being overexposed to heavy chalk.

More PF Plays:

• Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,700)
• PJ Washington ($7,200)
• Michael Porter Jr. ($6,100)

C - Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,700)

Giannis Antetokounmpo comes in at $10,700 on DraftKings and offers a strong combination of ceiling and value in tonight’s matchup against Denver. With a projection of 57.4 DK points and an elite 1.69 FPPM, he’s one of the slate’s top plays despite the moderate ownership (18.1%). The Nuggets rank middle-of-the-pack defensively, but they lack a true defensive stopper in the frontcourt outside of Jokic, who isn’t exactly known for his rim protection. Giannis has been consistently productive even while managing a calf strain, averaging 53.0 DK points over his last three games with no significant drop-off in minutes. His ability to rack up stats across every category makes him one of the safest high-priced options on the slate.

The ownership here is worth noting but not overly concerning. At 18%, Giannis will be popular but not overwhelmingly chalky, which feels justified given his floor/ceiling combo and favorable matchup. With a Boom% of nearly 34% and appearing in nearly 16% of optimal lineups, he profiles as a strong building block for both cash games and tournaments. If you’re looking to differentiate elsewhere, locking in Giannis’ steady production while leveraging mid-tier or lower-owned plays around him could be an effective strategy tonight.

More C Plays:

• Nikola Jokic ($12,300)
• PJ Washington ($7,200)
• Aaron Gordon ($5,300)

Good luck! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Player Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!