FREE 03/04 NBA Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s 7-game NBA slate offers a solid mix of options, with two clear standout games from a DFS perspective. Both the Bucks at Hawks (7:30 PM ET) and Cavaliers at Bulls (8:00 PM ET) come in with massive totals of 243.5, making them prime targets for stacking. These high-paced matchups should feature plenty of fantasy-friendly opportunities, so expect heavy ownership on key players from those spots. The rest of the slate has some slower-paced games mixed in, but there’s still value to be found if you’re willing to dig deeper.

With the first game tipping off at 7:00 PM ET and the last one starting at 8:30 PM ET, there’s not a ton of late swap flexibility tonight, so lineup construction will be crucial right out of the gate. Balancing exposure to those high-total games while avoiding overly chalky builds could be the key to separating yourself from the field.

Game Environment Analysis

HOU @ IND (O/U: 231.0, Spread: -4.0)

• Pace: HOU (19th) vs IND (9th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: HOU (20th) vs IND (7th)
• Def Eff: HOU (3rd) vs IND (19th)

TOR @ ORL (O/U: 207.5, Spread: -7.5)

• Pace: TOR (16th) vs ORL (30th)
• Off Eff: TOR (26th) vs ORL (28th)
• Def Eff: TOR (24th) vs ORL (2nd)

MIL @ ATL (O/U: 243.5, Spread: 5.5)

• Pace: MIL (10th) vs ATL (2nd)
• Off Eff: MIL (12th) vs ATL (19th)
• Def Eff: MIL (11th) vs ATL (20th)

GSW @ NYK (O/U: 227.5, Spread: -5.5)

• Pace: GSW (14th) vs NYK (25th)
• Off Eff: GSW (15th) vs NYK (4th)
• Def Eff: GSW (8th) vs NYK (23rd)

CLE @ CHI (O/U: 243.5, Spread: 12.5)

• Pace: CLE (6th) vs CHI (3rd)
• Off Eff: CLE (1st) 🔥 vs CHI (17th)
• Def Eff: CLE (6th) vs CHI (25th) 🎯

PHI @ MIN (O/U: 219.0, Spread: -14.5)

• Pace: PHI (27th) vs MIN (24th)
• Off Eff: PHI (22nd) vs MIN (13th)
• Def Eff: PHI (26th) 🎯 vs MIN (7th)

BKN @ SAS (O/U: 229.5, Spread: -3.5)

• Pace: BKN (29th) vs SAS (11th)
• Off Eff: BKN (27th) vs SAS (16th)
• Def Eff: BKN (18th) vs SAS (21st)

Legend:

🏃 = Significant pace mismatch

🔥 = Strong offense vs weak defense

🎯 = Poor defensive team

⚠️ = Blowout risk

Bold = Favored team

PG - Darius Garland ($7,500)

Darius Garland ($7,500) is in a solid spot tonight against the Bulls, offering both value and upside at his price point. With a 1.33 FPPM rate and a projection of 41.4 DK points, he provides a strong 5.5x value for his salary. The matchup against Chicago isn’t particularly intimidating, as they rank middle of the pack defensively against point guards, and Garland’s ability to contribute across multiple categories gives him a stable floor with clear ceiling potential. His 31.3% Boom percentage and appearance in 18.8% of optimal lineups suggest he’s a key play on this slate, especially given his projected 31 minutes in what should be a competitive game.

The biggest question with Garland is his relatively high ownership (18.9%), which makes him one of the chalkier plays at point guard tonight. While this level of ownership limits his appeal as a contrarian option, it’s justified given the combination of price, production, and opportunity he offers. His recent shooting struggles are worth noting (just 4-for-16 from the field last game), but he’s still generating solid fantasy output through assists and steals, making him less reliant on scoring efficiency to hit value. If you’re comfortable eating some chalk in cash or single-entry tournaments, Garland is a strong play; just be aware that fading him in large-field GPPs could provide leverage if he underperforms again.

More PG Plays:

• Donovan Mitchell ($8,700)
• Damian Lillard ($9,000)
• De’Aaron Fox ($8,200)

SG - Donovan Mitchell ($8,700)

Donovan Mitchell ($8,700) stands out as a strong mid-range play on tonight’s slate, offering both upside and value at his price point. With a 5.23x value projection and a 28.3% boom rate, he’s well-positioned to deliver in a favorable matchup against the Bulls. Chicago has struggled to contain opposing guards this season, and Mitchell’s 1.42 FPPM highlights his ability to rack up fantasy points efficiently, even in limited minutes. Coming off a rest day, he should be fresh for his usual workload of around 32 minutes, which aligns with his recent performances where he’s consistently topped 40 DK points in competitive games.

At an ownership projection of just 11.6%, Mitchell provides solid leverage in tournaments without being overly chalky. He’s ranked first in tournament appeal for good reason—his ceiling is undeniable when he gets hot from beyond the arc, as evidenced by his recent 55.8 DK point outing against Boston. The game environment also supports his upside; Chicago’s defense is middle-of-the-pack overall but vulnerable to high-scoring guards like Mitchell who can create their own shot and get to the line frequently. If you’re looking for a reliable anchor in your lineups with tournament-winning potential, Mitchell checks all the boxes tonight.

More SG Plays:

• De’Aaron Fox ($8,200)
• Anthony Edwards ($9,300)
• Jalen Green ($7,200)

SF - Franz Wagner ($8,100)

Franz Wagner ($8,100) is shaping up to be a strong play tonight despite his high projected ownership (32.4%). His 1.22 FPPM and a projection of 42.8 DK points make him one of the more reliable mid-high salary options on the slate, especially given his consistent usage and scoring role for Orlando. The matchup against Toronto isn’t ideal—they’re a solid defensive team—but Wagner’s recent performances show he’s matchup-proof to an extent, averaging 38.0 DK points over his last five games while logging heavy minutes (35+ in four of those contests). His Boom% of 25.3% and a value rating of 5.3x suggest he has enough ceiling at this price point to justify the chalk in both cash games and tournaments.

The main concern here is ownership, as Wagner will be one of the most popular plays on the slate. However, it feels warranted given his consistent production and ability to hit value with efficiency. He’s appearing in 14.1% of optimal lineups, which supports the idea that fading him could backfire if he hits his projection or better. If you’re playing GPPs and looking for leverage, consider pairing Wagner with lower-owned Orlando pieces or running it back with Raptors players from this game environment. Otherwise, Wagner looks like a foundational piece worth locking into lineups for both floor and upside potential tonight.

More SF Plays:

• Paul George ($7,400)
• Josh Hart ($7,700)
• Keldon Johnson ($4,600)

PF - Julius Randle ($6,500)

At $6,500, Julius Randle projects as one of the best value plays on the slate, offering a solid 5.59x value with 36.3 projected DK points. His 1.14 FPPM is respectable, and with Rudy Gobert already ruled out, Randle could see an increased role in Minnesota’s frontcourt against a tough Philadelphia team. While the Sixers are no defensive pushover, their focus will likely be on slowing down Anthony Edwards, leaving Randle with opportunities to capitalize on his versatile offensive game. His Boom% of 29.3% highlights his ceiling potential at this price point, especially if he logs his usual workload of around 32 minutes.

The main concern here is ownership—Randle is projected to be highly chalky at 34.7%. While that level of popularity might make him less appealing in tournaments for those seeking leverage, it’s also a reflection of how underpriced he is relative to his role and production potential in this spot. With Gobert out and the Timberwolves potentially shorthanded up front, Randle’s ability to contribute across multiple categories makes him a strong cash play and viable GPP option despite the heavy ownership. If you’re comfortable eating some chalk tonight, Randle’s combination of price, role, and matchup makes him worth considering in all formats.

More PF Plays:

• Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,000)
• Paolo Banchero ($8,200)
• Paul George ($7,400)

C - Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,000)

Giannis Antetokounmpo comes in at $11,000 tonight against the Hawks, and while that price tag is steep, his combination of consistency and upside makes him a strong play even at high ownership (25.6%). With a league-leading 1.72 FPPM and a projection of 56.6 DK points, he’s an elite per-minute producer who should see around 33 minutes in what’s expected to be a competitive matchup. Atlanta ranks middle-of-the-pack defensively but struggles to defend versatile bigs like Giannis, as they lack the interior presence to slow him down without fouling. His Boom% of 27.7% reflects his ceiling potential, and given his recent performances (53+ DK points in four of his last five games), he’s shown no signs of slowing down.

The high ownership is certainly something to consider, but it feels justified here given Giannis’ floor/ceiling combination and favorable game environment. At a value rating of 5.15x, he offers solid efficiency for a top-tier stud on this slate. While he doesn’t offer much leverage in tournaments due to his popularity, fading him could be risky considering he appears in 15.4% of optimal lineups and has been consistently delivering elite production. If you’re paying up for one star tonight, Giannis is one of the safest bets to anchor your lineup with both stability and upside potential.

More C Plays:

• Jarrett Allen ($6,200)
• Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,800)
• Andre Drummond ($5,000)

Good luck tonight! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Player Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!