FREE 03/07 NBA Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

We’ve got an exciting 8-game NBA DFS slate tonight, kicking off at 7:00 PM ET and wrapping up with some late-night action at 10:30 PM ET. Two games immediately stand out from a fantasy perspective: Memphis at Dallas (239.5 total) and Phoenix at Denver (238.5 total). Both feature high-paced environments with plenty of scoring potential, making them prime spots to target for DFS lineups. These matchups should draw plenty of attention, so finding the right pieces—or even pivoting away in certain spots—could make all the difference.

The rest of the slate has a mix of slower games and mid-range totals, so your roster construction will likely hinge on how you approach those two marquee matchups. With an evenly spread start time schedule, there’s also room to utilize late swap if news breaks or if you want to adjust based on early results. It’s shaping up to be a slate where game selection and lineup balance are key, so locking in the right core while staying flexible could give you the edge tonight.

Game Environment Analysis

CLE @ CHA (O/U: 236.0, Spread: 16.5)

• Pace: CLE (6th) vs CHA (21st) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: CLE (1st) 🔥 vs CHA (29th)
• Def Eff: CLE (6th) vs CHA (18th)
  ⚠️ Blowout risk

MEM @ DAL (O/U: 239.5, Spread: 10.0)

• Pace: MEM (1st) vs DAL (17th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: MEM (6th) vs DAL (11th)
• Def Eff: MEM (9th) vs DAL (14th)

UTA @ TOR (O/U: 228.0, Spread: -6.0)

• Pace: UTA (11th) vs TOR (14th)
• Off Eff: UTA (23rd) vs TOR (26th)
• Def Eff: UTA (30th) 🎯 vs TOR (24th)

MIN @ MIA (O/U: 215.5, Spread: 4.5)

• Pace: MIN (24th) vs MIA (29th)
• Off Eff: MIN (13th) vs MIA (19th)
• Def Eff: MIN (7th) vs MIA (13th)

POR @ OKC (O/U: 229.5, Spread: -3.0)

• Pace: POR (18th) vs OKC (8th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: POR (24th) vs OKC (4th) 🔥
• Def Eff: POR (23rd) vs OKC (1st)

PHX @ DEN (O/U: 238.5, Spread: -6.5)

• Pace: PHX (23rd) vs DEN (5th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: PHX (9th) vs DEN (2nd) 🔥
• Def Eff: PHX (27th) 🎯 vs DEN (15th)

SAS @ SAC (O/U: 233.5, Spread: -6.5)

• Pace: SAS (12th) vs SAC (15th)
• Off Eff: SAS (16th) vs SAC (8th) 🔥
• Def Eff: SAS (21st) vs SAC (16th)

NYK @ LAC (O/U: 218.5, Spread: -6.5)

• Pace: NYK (25th) vs LAC (20th)
• Off Eff: NYK (5th) vs LAC (20th)
• Def Eff: NYK (20th) vs LAC (5th)

Legend:

🏃 = Significant pace mismatch

🔥 = Strong offense vs weak defense

🎯 = Poor defensive team

⚠️ = Blowout risk

Bold = Favored team

PG - Scottie Barnes ($7,900)

Scottie Barnes is in a fantastic spot tonight against Utah, making his $7,900 salary look like a strong value play. With a 1.45 FPPM rate and a projection of 47.8 DK points, he offers solid upside at 6.05x value. Utah struggles defensively across multiple positions, ranking near the bottom of the league in team defensive efficiency, and Barnes’ versatility as both a primary ball-handler and forward should allow him to exploit mismatches throughout the game. His ability to fill up the stat sheet—evidenced by his recent games where he’s contributed across points, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks—adds to his appeal in tournaments with a 44.7% boom percentage and inclusion in 33.2% of optimal lineups.

The main concern here is ownership, as Barnes is projected to be rostered by 26.3% of the field—a significant number on this slate. While that makes him chalky, it’s justified given his combination of matchup, value potential, and recent form (averaging nearly 40 DK points over his last five games). If you’re playing cash games or single-entry contests, he’s an excellent foundation piece for your lineup. However, in large-field GPPs where differentiation matters more, consider pairing him with lower-owned plays to offset the chalk or pivoting entirely if you believe similar production can be found elsewhere at lower ownership.

More PG Plays:

• Immanuel Quickley ($6,600)
• James Harden ($9,800)
• De’Aaron Fox ($8,400)

SG - Isaiah Joe ($4,000)

Isaiah Joe is shaping up to be one of the most intriguing value plays on tonight’s slate at just $4,000. Projected for 28.6 DK points with a strong 7.2x value and a solid 1.02 FPPM, he’s in a favorable spot against Portland. The Trail Blazers rank near the bottom of the league defensively, and with OKC missing Chet Holmgren, there’s potential for Joe to see extended minutes (projected for 28). His Boom% of 45.3% and appearance in 17.7% of optimal lineups suggest he has significant upside relative to his price tag, making him an appealing option even in tournaments.

The one concern here is ownership—Joe is projected at 31.6%, which makes him one of the chalkiest plays on the slate. However, given his low salary and high probability of hitting value, this chalk feels justified in cash games or single-entry contests where you don’t want to fall behind the field on such a strong point-per-dollar play. In GPPs, you may want to consider pivoting if you think fading heavy ownership could create leverage, but it’s hard to ignore Joe’s metrics in this matchup against a porous Portland defense.

More SG Plays:

• Zach LaVine ($8,200)
• Ja’Kobe Walter ($3,700)
• Klay Thompson ($5,500)

SF - Aaron Wiggins ($4,900)

Aaron Wiggins is shaping up as one of the strongest value plays on tonight’s slate at just $4,900. Projected for 34.1 DK points with a solid 1.1 FPPM rate, he offers nearly 7x value, which is hard to ignore in any format. The matchup against Portland is favorable, as the Trail Blazers rank among the league’s worst defensive teams, particularly against wings. With Wiggins projected for 31 minutes and a near-50% boom percentage, he’s in a prime spot to deliver strong returns on his salary. His recent performances have been steady, consistently hitting the mid-20s in DK points with a ceiling north of 35 DK points when his shot falls.

The 44% ownership is high, but it’s justified given his role and price point. In tournaments, you’ll need to decide whether to eat the chalk or pivot elsewhere for leverage. While he’s unlikely to break the slate entirely, his combination of minutes, efficiency, and matchup makes him a safe play with upside in this spot. If you’re building cash lineups or looking for stability in GPPs with room for upside, Wiggins should be firmly on your radar tonight.

More SF Plays:

• DeMar DeRozan ($7,500)
• Zach LaVine ($8,200)
• Ja’Kobe Walter ($3,700)

PF - Naji Marshall ($6,000)

Naji Marshall is an intriguing option tonight at $6,000, especially given his recent bump into the starting lineup for the Mavericks. Over his last two games, he’s logged 30+ minutes and delivered strong fantasy performances, including a 41.8 DK-point outing against Milwaukee. His 1.12 FPPM rate combined with a projected 31.5 minutes makes him a solid value at nearly 6x return on salary, and his versatility as a SF/PF gives him upside in multiple stat categories. Facing Memphis, Marshall will likely see opportunities to exploit their defensive vulnerabilities on the wing, particularly with Dallas relying on him more heavily in a shorthanded rotation.

However, it’s worth noting Marshall’s projected ownership of 21.7%, which makes him one of the chalkier plays on the slate. While that level of popularity can be concerning in tournaments, his Boom% of 33.6% and appearance in over 14% of optimal lineups suggest he has legitimate upside to justify the chalk. If you’re comfortable eating some ownership for safety in cash games or anchoring your tournament builds with high-value plays, Marshall checks all the boxes tonight as a reliable mid-tier option with room for ceiling performances.

More PF Plays:

• Chet Holmgren ($7,300)
• Kevin Durant ($8,900)
• Kawhi Leonard ($7,800)

C - Nikola Jokic ($12,300)

Nikola Jokic comes with a hefty $12,300 price tag tonight, but there’s a strong case to be made for him as one of the top plays on the slate. He’s projected for 65.5 DK points with an elite 1.77 FPPM, and his 33% Boom rate reflects his ability to hit ceiling games even at this salary. The matchup against Phoenix isn’t overly concerning, as the Suns have struggled to contain dominant big men, particularly in high-usage scenarios like this one. Jokic is expected to play around 37 minutes in what should be a competitive game, and given his recent performances—like the 73.8 DK points he posted just three games ago—it’s clear he’s capable of delivering elite production.

The main challenge here is ownership, as Jokic is projected to be rostered by nearly 23% of the field. That’s a significant number on a large slate, but it doesn’t necessarily mean you should fade him. Chalk becomes problematic when it lacks upside or value, and neither applies here—Jokic has both in spades with a solid 5.3x value projection and an 18.6% Optimal lineup rate. While he’s not a contrarian play by any means, fading him could leave you chasing raw points that are difficult to make up elsewhere. If you’re building around stars tonight, Jokic remains one of the safest and highest-upside options available.

More C Plays:

• Chet Holmgren ($7,300)
• Jonas Valanciunas ($6,900)
• Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,900)

Good luck tonight! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Player Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!