FREE 03/12 NBA Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s 7-game NBA slate tips off at 7:30 PM ET, and it’s shaping up to be an exciting one for DFS with a couple of standout game environments. The Utah-Memphis matchup at 8:00 PM ET leads the way with a massive 247.0 total, making it a prime spot to target for high-scoring potential. Right behind it is Charlotte-Atlanta at 7:30 PM ET, boasting a 241.5 total in what should be another fast-paced, fantasy-friendly game. These two matchups are likely to draw heavy attention, so how you approach them could make or break your lineup.

Outside of those high-total games, the rest of the slate offers some interesting dynamics but without quite the same level of scoring upside. With most games starting within a half-hour window, late swap opportunities may not play as big of a role tonight, so getting your core locked in early is key. Balancing exposure to the chalky high-total spots while finding value elsewhere will be critical on this slate—time to dig in and get creative!

Game Environment Analysis

CHA @ ATL (O/U: 241.5, Spread: -8.5)

• Pace: CHA (21st) vs ATL (2nd) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: CHA (29th) vs ATL (18th)
• Def Eff: CHA (15th) vs ATL (20th)

OKC @ BOS (O/U: 229.5, Spread: -2.5)

• Pace: OKC (9th) vs BOS (27th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: OKC (4th) vs BOS (3rd)
• Def Eff: OKC (1st) vs BOS (4th)

PHI @ TOR (O/U: 221.0, Spread: -5.0)

• Pace: PHI (26th) vs TOR (15th)
• Off Eff: PHI (22nd) vs TOR (25th)
• Def Eff: PHI (26th) 🎯 vs TOR (22nd)

PHX @ HOU (O/U: 226.5, Spread: -4.5)

• Pace: PHX (23rd) vs HOU (19th)
• Off Eff: PHX (7th) vs HOU (19th)
• Def Eff: PHX (27th) 🎯 vs HOU (2nd)

UTA @ MEM (O/U: 247.0, Spread: -11.5)

• Pace: UTA (11th) vs MEM (1st) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: UTA (23rd) vs MEM (6th) 🔥
• Def Eff: UTA (30th) 🎯 vs MEM (9th)

LAC @ MIA (O/U: 205.5, Spread: -2.5)

• Pace: LAC (20th) vs MIA (28th)
• Off Eff: LAC (20th) vs MIA (21st)
• Def Eff: LAC (6th) vs MIA (13th)

DAL @ SAS (O/U: 236.0, Spread: -6.5)

• Pace: DAL (16th) vs SAS (13th)
• Off Eff: DAL (11th) vs SAS (15th)
• Def Eff: DAL (18th) vs SAS (25th) 🎯

Legend:

🏃 = Significant pace mismatch

🔥 = Strong offense vs weak defense

🎯 = Poor defensive team

⚠️ = Blowout risk

Bold = Favored team

PG - James Harden ($10,200)

James Harden ($10,200) is a strong option tonight in a tough matchup against Miami. While the Heat are known for their defensive discipline, Harden’s consistent usage and elite playmaking keep him in the conversation as a high-upside DFS target. Over his last five games, he’s averaged 30.4 points, 11 assists, and nearly 40 minutes per contest, showing that he’s fully capable of paying off his salary. His 1.37 FPPM production paired with an optimal rate of 21.2% makes him one of the slate’s top tournament plays despite the challenging opponent. Miami’s slower pace could cap the overall ceiling of this game environment, but Harden’s ability to contribute across multiple categories mitigates some of that risk.

At 15% projected ownership, Harden is chalkier than most high-priced options on this slate, but it feels justified given his recent production and role in the Clippers’ offense. With Kawhi Leonard as his only real competition for touches, Harden has proven he can consistently deliver big fantasy performances even when sharing the court with another star. His Boom% of 22.5% highlights his upside at this price point, and while he won’t be sneaky in tournaments, there’s still plenty of value in locking in a reliable floor with clear upside for more if this game stays competitive late. If you’re spending up at PG tonight, Harden is one of your best bets to anchor your lineup.

More PG Plays:

• LaMelo Ball ($9,600)
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($11,400)
• Ja Morant ($9,300)

SG - Desmond Bane ($8,300)

Desmond Bane ($8,300) stands out as one of the stronger mid-to-high-tier plays on this slate. He’s projected for 43.9 DK points at an excellent 5.3x value, which makes him a reliable option in both cash games and tournaments. The matchup against Utah is appealing, as they’ve struggled defensively against opposing guards this season. With Jaren Jackson Jr. sidelined, Bane has taken on a more prominent role in the Grizzlies’ offense, averaging 36 minutes per game over his last five contests and posting monster stat lines like his 57.3 DK-point performance against New Orleans and 68 DK points versus Dallas just days ago. His consistent ability to contribute across multiple categories—points, rebounds, assists, and steals—bolsters his floor while giving him legitimate ceiling potential.

The one wrinkle with Bane is his expected ownership at 22.9%, making him one of the chalkier options on the slate. However, this feels justified given his recent production and strong metrics: he ranks fifth in Hero GPP score with a solid 24% Boom rate and appears in nearly 20% of optimal lineups. While he’s not exactly a contrarian play, fading him could be risky considering how integral he’s been to Memphis’ offense lately. If you’re playing large-field tournaments, you might consider pairing him with lower-owned pieces from this game or elsewhere to differentiate your lineup while still benefiting from Bane’s upside in what should be another high-usage spot for him tonight.

More SG Plays:

• Devin Vassell ($6,100)
• AJ Lawson ($4,000)
• Vince Williams Jr. ($3,800)

SF - Keldon Johnson ($4,600)

Keldon Johnson is shaping up to be one of the more intriguing value plays on tonight’s slate at just $4,600. With a solid 0.99 FPPM and a projection of 25.6 DK points, he offers strong value at 5.57x his salary. The matchup against Dallas is favorable, as their defense has struggled to contain wings all season. Johnson has shown consistency lately, hitting double-digit points in 10 of his last 11 games while maintaining efficiency from the field. His recent performance against Dallas—28 points on 10-of-16 shooting—underscores his ability to exploit this matchup. At this price point, he doesn’t need to do much to hit value, and his ceiling makes him an appealing option in both cash games and tournaments.

The biggest question with Johnson is whether his high ownership (29.3%) justifies playing chalk here. While it’s always worth considering leverage pivots in tournaments, Johnson’s combination of production, minutes (26 projected), and value make him hard to fade entirely. He also ranks second in tournament GPP rankings with a respectable 20.9% Boom Rate and appears in nearly 15% of optimal lineups, which reinforces his potential upside for large-field contests. If you’re looking for a mid-range play who can deliver solid returns without breaking the bank, Johnson fits the bill—even if you’ll be sharing him with a good chunk of the field tonight.

More SF Plays:

• Jayson Tatum ($10,700)
• Devin Vassell ($6,100)
• Scottie Barnes ($8,700)

PF - Miles Bridges ($8,600)

Miles Bridges is in a great spot tonight at $8,600, and while his 31.6% projected ownership makes him chalky, it feels justified given his recent production and the matchup against Atlanta. Over his last five games, Bridges has averaged 53.2 DK points per game, with three performances of 54+ DK points in that stretch. His 1.27 FPPM rate paired with a projected 34 minutes gives him a strong floor-ceiling combination, and his Boom% of 21.8% reflects real upside for tournaments. The Hawks rank middle-of-the-pack defensively but struggle to contain versatile forwards like Bridges, especially in fast-paced environments—this game has sneaky shootout potential.

From a value perspective, Bridges’ 5.03x projection stands out on this slate for someone priced in the upper tier. His ability to contribute across multiple categories (averaging 26.2 points, 8.3 rebounds, and 4.2 assists since the All-Star break) makes him less reliant on scoring alone to hit value. The high ownership does limit his leverage appeal in GPPs, but his presence in 16.6% of optimal lineups indicates he’s worth eating some chalk if you’re looking for stability with legitimate upside. If you’re fading Bridges, make sure your pivot has similar ceiling potential because this is not the type of chalk to ignore lightly tonight.

More PF Plays:

• Jayson Tatum ($10,700)
• John Collins ($6,600)
• Tari Eason ($5,900)

C - Mason Plumlee ($3,400)

Mason Plumlee at $3,400 is one of the best value plays on the slate, and the numbers back it up. Projected for 25.4 DK points in 27 minutes, he carries a strong 7.5x value and a solid 0.94 FPPM rate. His recent production has been consistent, with performances of 22+ DK points in three of his last four games, including a ceiling game of 36.8 DK points against Denver just last week. Houston’s frontcourt defense is exploitable, and their fast-paced style (2nd in pace) creates extra opportunities for big men to rack up rebounds and easy buckets around the rim—both areas where Plumlee thrives.

The main concern here is ownership, as Plumlee is projected at a hefty 25.6%, making him one of the chalkiest value options tonight. That said, this feels like good chalk given his role and matchup against a team that ranks bottom-10 in defensive efficiency versus centers. While there’s some risk if foul trouble or poor shooting limits his minutes, his combination of price, opportunity, and upside makes him hard to fade in cash games or single-entry tournaments. In GPPs, you could pivot to lower-owned options if you’re looking to differentiate your lineup, but Plumlee’s high Boom% (42.3%) suggests he has real potential to crush this price tag even as chalk.

More C Plays:

• Onyeka Okongwu ($7,100)
• Jakob Poeltl ($6,000)
• John Collins ($6,600)

Good luck tonight! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Player Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!