FREE 03/18 NBA Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

We’ve got a compact 4-game slate tonight, starting at 7:00 PM ET and wrapping up with the late-night hammer at 10:30 PM ET. Two games stand out from a DFS perspective thanks to their high totals: ATL at CHA and CLE at LAC, both sitting at 232.5. Those are the spots you’ll want to prioritize if you’re targeting pace and scoring upside, especially with Atlanta’s fast-paced style and Cleveland’s potential struggles defending the perimeter against the Clippers.

With fewer games on the slate, ownership could condense around those high-total matchups, so finding value in lower-profile spots might be key to getting different. The staggered start times also create some late-swap flexibility, especially with that juicy CLE-LAC game anchoring the night. It’s all about balancing chalky plays with smart pivots—let’s see how it plays out!

Game Environment Analysis

ATL @ CHA (O/U: 232.5, Spread: 8.0)

• Pace: ATL (2nd) vs CHA (20th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: ATL (20th) vs CHA (29th)
• Def Eff: ATL (17th) vs CHA (21st)

BKN @ BOS (O/U: 212.5, Spread: -14.0)

• Pace: BKN (30th) vs BOS (27th)
• Off Eff: BKN (27th) vs BOS (3rd) 🔥
• Def Eff: BKN (18th) vs BOS (6th)

MIL @ GSW (O/U: 227.0, Spread: 3.0)

• Pace: MIL (10th) vs GSW (16th)
• Off Eff: MIL (13th) vs GSW (16th)
• Def Eff: MIL (11th) vs GSW (8th)

CLE @ LAC (O/U: 232.5, Spread: 3.0)

• Pace: CLE (6th) vs LAC (22nd) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: CLE (1st) vs LAC (18th)
• Def Eff: CLE (5th) vs LAC (4th)

Legend:

🏃 = Significant pace mismatch

🔥 = Strong offense vs weak defense

🎯 = Poor defensive team

⚠️ = Blowout risk

Bold = Favored team

PG - Trae Young ($9,800)

Trae Young comes in as one of the top plays on tonight’s slate, and it’s easy to see why. At $9,800, he offers strong value with a 5.04x projection and a robust 1.41 FPPM. Charlotte is a prime matchup for him, as they rank near the bottom of the league in defensive efficiency and struggle to contain opposing point guards. In his last meeting with the Hornets just six days ago, Young erupted for 62.8 DK points on the back of 35 points and 12 assists. With an expected workload of 35 minutes in what should be a fast-paced game environment (Charlotte ranks top five in pace), he has both a solid floor and significant ceiling potential.

The ownership is high at 37.2%, but this feels like chalk worth eating in both cash games and GPPs. His optimal lineup percentage (26.34%) supports his viability, and while there’s always some risk with inflated ownership, fading him could prove costly given his recent form and favorable matchup. If you’re looking to differentiate elsewhere, stacking this game or pairing Young with another Hawks player could provide leverage without overthinking it. All things considered, Trae looks like one of the best foundational pieces on tonight’s slate.

More PG Plays:

• LaMelo Ball ($9,500)
• Damian Lillard ($8,500)
• Dyson Daniels ($6,900)

SG - Dyson Daniels ($6,900)

Dyson Daniels ($6,900) is shaping up as a strong play tonight in a favorable matchup against the Hornets. Charlotte struggles defensively, particularly against guards, and with Daniels projected for 34 minutes and 36.3 DK points (5.27x value), he’s in a great spot to take advantage. His ability to contribute across multiple categories—averaging 1.07 FPPM—makes him a reliable option, especially given his recent stat-stuffing performances that include steals, assists, and even blocks. The Hornets’ fast-paced style should also create plenty of opportunities for Daniels to rack up fantasy points, making his floor appealing in cash games while still offering upside for tournaments.

The 25% projected ownership is on the higher side but feels justified given the combination of matchup, role, and value. Daniels has been a consistent producer lately, with three games over 30 DK points in his last five outings and an impressive ceiling performance of 48.5 DK points against Philadelphia earlier this week. His inclusion in 27.2% of optimal lineups further supports his viability as chalk worth eating tonight. While he won’t fly under the radar, it’s hard to ignore how well he projects relative to his salary and the game environment at hand.

More SG Plays:

• Donovan Mitchell ($8,800)
• Derrick White ($7,300)
• Vit Krejci ($4,300)

SF - Jimmy Butler ($7,900)

Jimmy Butler sits at an intriguing price point of $7,900 tonight in a matchup against Milwaukee. With a 1.23 FPPM rate and a projection of 40.69 DK points, he offers strong value at 5.15x. Butler has been seeing consistent minutes (33 projected tonight), and his ability to fill up the stat sheet makes him a reliable option in DFS lineups. The Bucks are a tough defensive team, but Butler’s versatility as both a scorer and facilitator gives him multiple paths to production, as evidenced by his recent 47.5 DK-point outing against Denver. His optimal lineup percentage of 28.68% is one of the highest on the slate, indicating he’s a core piece for both cash games and tournaments.

Ownership is hovering around 19.9%, which is moderately high but not overwhelming given his upside and salary efficiency. While he’ll be somewhat popular, it’s justified considering his combination of floor and ceiling in this spot. If you’re looking for leverage, he might not be your first choice; however, fading him entirely could be risky given how often he appears in optimal builds. With Milwaukee’s defense likely focused on slowing down Steph Curry, Butler should have opportunities to step up as the Warriors’ secondary offensive engine. He’s firmly in play across all contest types tonight.

More SF Plays:

• Jayson Tatum ($10,800)
• DaQuan Jeffries ($4,000)
• Zaccharie Risacher ($4,400)

PF - Georges Niang ($4,200)

Georges Niang ($4,200) is shaping up as one of the better value plays on tonight’s slate, and for good reason. With a projected 26 minutes against Charlotte, he offers a strong 5.7x value at his salary and has been appearing in 25.9% of optimal lineups. Charlotte’s defense has struggled all season, ranking among the worst in the league at defending opposing forwards, which aligns well with Niang’s ability to stretch the floor and contribute across multiple categories. His recent performances show he can hit value consistently when given minutes, including two games above 24 DK points in his last four outings. At 0.92 FPPM, Niang doesn’t need to do anything extraordinary to justify this price tag.

The one concern here is his high ownership (37%), which makes him chalky in tournaments. While that level of popularity can sometimes be a red flag, it feels justified given his role and matchup tonight. If you’re playing cash games or looking for safe value to balance out your lineup, Niang fits perfectly. However, if you’re building GPP lineups and want to differentiate yourself from the field, fading him could make sense—but only if you have a strong pivot option at a similar price point. Ultimately, Niang offers solid production at low risk tonight and should remain a key consideration across all formats.

More PF Plays:

• Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,500)
• Jayson Tatum ($10,800)
• DaQuan Jeffries ($4,000)

C - Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,500)

Giannis Antetokounmpo comes in as one of the top plays on the slate, and for good reason. At $11,500, his 1.68 FPPM (fantasy points per minute) and a projection of 58.1 DK points make him a strong value even at his high salary, offering a solid 5.05x return. He’s been consistently dominant, averaging just over 60 DK points across his last two games while logging heavy minutes (35+). The matchup against Golden State is intriguing—while they’ve improved defensively in spots, they still struggle with interior defense and rebounding, ranking in the bottom half of the league in both categories. With Giannis projected for 34-36 minutes in what should be a competitive game environment, he’s positioned to exploit those weaknesses.

At 26.8% projected ownership, Giannis will be one of the most popular players on this slate, but the chalk appears justified given his ceiling and floor combination. His ability to contribute across all stat categories makes him less reliant on scoring alone, which is key against Golden State’s pace-and-space style that can create more possessions for DFS production. While you’ll need to differentiate elsewhere in tournaments due to his high ownership, fading Giannis entirely feels risky given his optimal lineup percentage (25.96%) and boom potential (21%). If you’re building around stars tonight, he’s an excellent anchor piece with both safety and upside baked into his profile.

More C Plays:

• Onyeka Okongwu ($7,500)
• Draymond Green ($6,200)
• Mark Williams ($8,100)

Good luck tonight! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Player Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!