FREE 03/19 NBA Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

We’ve got a loaded 11-game NBA slate tonight, tipping off at 7:00 PM ET and wrapping up with a pair of late-night matchups at 10:00 PM ET. The games to circle are MEM at POR (236.0 total) and CHI at PHX (235.5 total), both of which feature fast-paced environments and plenty of DFS upside. With so many options across the slate, how you approach these high-total games versus some of the slower matchups could be key to building an edge.

Late swap will also be important with two of the highest-scoring environments coming in the final window. Balancing early value plays with exposure to those late games could make or break your lineup as news develops throughout the night. It’s a slate where being flexible and intentional with roster construction will go a long way, so keep an eye on ownership trends and game environments as lock approaches.

Game Environment Analysis

DAL @ IND (O/U: 234.0, Spread: -11.0)

• Pace: DAL (15th) vs IND (9th)
• Off Eff: DAL (12th) vs IND (8th) 🔥
• Def Eff: DAL (22nd) vs IND (15th)

HOU @ ORL (O/U: 208.5, Spread: 2.5)

• Pace: HOU (19th) vs ORL (28th)
• Off Eff: HOU (18th) vs ORL (28th)
• Def Eff: HOU (3rd) vs ORL (2nd)

DET @ MIA (O/U: 218.0, Spread: 4.5)

• Pace: DET (6th) vs MIA (29th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: DET (15th) vs MIA (22nd)
• Def Eff: DET (9th) vs MIA (13th)

NOP @ MIN (O/U: 228.5, Spread: -13.5)

• Pace: NOP (14th) vs MIN (23rd)
• Off Eff: NOP (24th) vs MIN (11th)
• Def Eff: NOP (29th) 🎯 vs MIN (6th)

PHI @ OKC (O/U: 227.5, Spread: -12.0)

• Pace: PHI (25th) vs OKC (10th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: PHI (21st) vs OKC (4th) 🔥
• Def Eff: PHI (26th) 🎯 vs OKC (1st)

NYK @ SAS (O/U: 227.0, Spread: 8.5)

• Pace: NYK (26th) vs SAS (12th)
• Off Eff: NYK (5th) 🔥 vs SAS (14th)
• Def Eff: NYK (14th) vs SAS (25th) 🎯

WAS @ UTA (O/U: 234.5, Spread: -2.5)

• Pace: WAS (4th) vs UTA (7th)
• Off Eff: WAS (30th) vs UTA (23rd)
• Def Eff: WAS (28th) 🎯 vs UTA (30th) 🎯

DEN @ LAL (O/U: 231.0, Spread: 2.5)

• Pace: DEN (5th) vs LAL (21st) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: DEN (2nd) 🔥 vs LAL (10th)
• Def Eff: DEN (19th) vs LAL (12th)

CHI @ PHX (O/U: 235.5, Spread: -6.0)

• Pace: CHI (3rd) vs PHX (24th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: CHI (20th) vs PHX (7th) 🔥
• Def Eff: CHI (21st) vs PHX (27th) 🎯

MEM @ POR (O/U: 236.0, Spread: 4.5)

• Pace: MEM (1st) vs POR (18th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: MEM (6th) 🔥 vs POR (25th)
• Def Eff: MEM (10th) vs POR (17th)

Legend:

🏃 = Significant pace mismatch

🔥 = Strong offense vs weak defense

🎯 = Poor defensive team

⚠️ = Blowout risk

Bold = Favored team

PG - AJ Johnson ($3,500)

AJ Johnson ($3,500) is one of the most intriguing value plays on tonight’s slate. Projected for 27.8 DK points at just $3,500, he offers an elite 7.95x value and appears in 27.7% of optimal lineups—a clear sign that his upside aligns with his price tag. With Marcus Smart and Malcolm Brogdon sidelined and Washington in full evaluation mode late in the season, Johnson is locked into significant minutes (29.5 projected). His per-minute production (0.94 FPPM) isn’t flashy but is more than serviceable for a player at this salary point, especially against a Utah defense that ranks near the bottom of the league in efficiency against guards.

The main question here is whether his high ownership (57.6%) makes him a must-play or a fade candidate in tournaments. While the chalk is heavy, it’s hard to argue against it given his role and opportunity in this game environment. Utah’s pace and defensive struggles create a favorable spot for Johnson to capitalize on extended playing time, as we saw in his first start where he posted 22.3 DK points despite six turnovers. If you’re playing cash games or small-field contests, fading him feels unnecessarily risky. For GPPs, however, you’ll need to weigh whether eating the chalk aligns with your overall build or if pivoting to lower-owned value plays fits your strategy better.

More PG Plays:

• Luka Doncic ($12,500)
• Cade Cunningham ($9,900)
• Devin Booker ($9,200)

SG - Isaiah Joe ($4,300)

Isaiah Joe comes in as one of the most intriguing value plays on tonight’s slate at just $4,300. Projected for 27 DK points and offering a solid 6.3x value, he’s hard to ignore, especially with his expected 27.5 minutes against Philadelphia. Joe’s recent production has been volatile—ranging from 10 to 31 DK points over his last five games—but his ability to contribute across multiple categories gives him upside if his shot falls. The matchup against Philly isn’t ideal, but Joe’s 0.98 FPPM and increased role when OKC’s rotation tightens make him viable in tournaments, particularly at this price point.

The real question is whether his massive projected ownership (35.9%) is worth eating in GPPs. While the chalk is justified given his price and projection, there’s risk here due to his inconsistency and reliance on scoring efficiency. If you’re playing large-field tournaments, fading Joe could offer significant leverage given how popular he’ll be, especially since there are other value guards on the slate with lower ownership. That said, if you’re building cash lineups or smaller-field contests, locking in Joe makes sense given his strong likelihood of hitting value at this salary.

More SG Plays:

• Devin Booker ($9,200)
• Mikal Bridges ($6,300)
• Austin Reaves ($9,000)

SF - Aaron Wiggins ($5,100)

Aaron Wiggins is shaping up to be one of the more intriguing value plays on tonight’s slate at just $5,100. With a 6.25x value projection and a strong 1.1 FPPM, he’s in a position to deliver solid returns, especially with his expected 29 minutes of playing time against Philadelphia. The matchup isn’t ideal—Philly ranks as a tough defensive unit—but Wiggins’ versatility as a SF/PF allows him to contribute across multiple categories. His Boom% of 35.1% and presence in 16.3% of optimal lineups suggest he has legitimate upside for tournaments, particularly at this salary range.

The main concern here is ownership, as Wiggins is projected to be highly rostered at 29.3%. While that level of chalk might scare some off, it feels justified given his ability to exceed value and the lack of comparable options in his price tier tonight. If you’re comfortable eating the chalk, Wiggins makes for an excellent mid-tier play with upside in GPPs. However, if you’re looking for leverage in large-field tournaments, fading him could make sense given his inconsistent production over the past few games (with DK outputs ranging from 7.3 to 44.8 points). Ultimately, he’s a viable option but requires consideration depending on your risk tolerance and lineup construction strategy.

More SF Plays:

• Mikal Bridges ($6,300)
• Josh Hart ($8,000)
• Deni Avdija ($7,300)

PF - Kenrich Williams ($3,200)

Kenrich Williams is an intriguing value play at just $3,200 on DraftKings, especially with his recent move into the starting lineup for OKC. Projected for 25 minutes against a tough Philadelphia squad, Williams’ 0.89 FPPM gives him a solid floor, and his projected 22.3 DK points translate to nearly 7x value—one of the best point-per-dollar options on the slate. While Philly’s defense is no joke, Williams doesn’t rely heavily on scoring to contribute; he’s shown an ability to rack up peripheral stats like rebounds, assists, and steals (as evidenced by his recent outings). With OKC shorthanded in the frontcourt, he should see enough opportunity to return strong value.

At 13.6% projected ownership, Williams will be relatively chalky compared to the field average, but it’s likely justified given his price tag and upside in tournaments (32.8% Boom%). He also appears in over 13% of optimal lineups, which reinforces his viability as a value play. While there’s some risk tied to OKC’s rotations and the matchup against Joel Embiid and company, Williams’ versatility and low salary make him an excellent option for roster construction flexibility tonight. If you’re comfortable eating some chalk for high-value production, he’s worth locking into your builds.

More PF Plays:

• Kevin Durant ($9,100)
• Chet Holmgren ($7,600)
• Josh Hart ($8,000)

C - Tristan Vukcevic ($3,800)

Tristan Vukcevic is shaping up to be one of the best value plays on the slate at just $3,800. His recent performances, including a 36 DK-point outing against Portland and 31.3 DK points versus Toronto, show he can fill the stat sheet when given minutes. With Washington likely continuing to give him an extended look, his projected 22.5 minutes tonight should offer plenty of opportunity to reach or exceed his projection of 26.1 DK points (6.87x value). Utah is a favorable matchup for centers, and Vukcevic’s strong per-minute production (1.16 FPPM) aligns well with this game environment.

At 19.7% ownership, Vukcevic will be chalky compared to the field average, but it’s justified given his upside and price point. A 37.3% boom rate and a top-4 tournament rank make him an attractive option in GPPs despite his popularity. If you’re playing cash games, he’s almost a lock due to his combination of floor and ceiling at this salary range. In tournaments, you’ll need to differentiate elsewhere if you roster him, but fading him completely might be risky given how easily he can crush value at this price.

More C Plays:

• Nikola Jokic ($12,900)
• Kevin Durant ($9,100)
• Chet Holmgren ($7,600)

Good luck tonight! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Player Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!