FREE 03/22 NBA Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

We’ve got a compact 4-game NBA slate tonight, but there’s still plenty to dig into for DFS. The action tips off at 7:00 PM ET with Warriors-Hawks, one of the two standout game environments on the slate. With a 233.0 total and two teams that like to push the pace, this matchup has all the makings of a DFS target. On the other end of the schedule, Bulls-Lakers closes things out at 10:30 PM ET with an even higher total of 236.5, offering strong late-night hammer potential.

The smaller slate size means roster construction will be tighter, so nailing exposure to these high-total games could make or break your night. That said, don’t completely overlook some of the lower-total matchups—they may provide under-the-radar value to help you differentiate your lineups. As always, keep an eye on late-breaking news and be ready to adjust as needed. Let’s dive in and see where we can find an edge!

Game Environment Analysis

GSW @ ATL (O/U: 233.0, Spread: 2.0)

• Pace: GSW (16th) vs ATL (2nd) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: GSW (16th) vs ATL (20th)
• Def Eff: GSW (7th) vs ATL (17th)

WAS @ NYK (O/U: 223.0, Spread: -16.0)

• Pace: WAS (4th) vs NYK (26th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: WAS (30th) vs NYK (5th) 🔥
• Def Eff: WAS (28th) 🎯 vs NYK (15th)
  ⚠️ Blowout risk

MIL @ SAC (O/U: 223.0, Spread: -2.5)

• Pace: MIL (11th) vs SAC (17th)
• Off Eff: MIL (13th) vs SAC (8th)
• Def Eff: MIL (10th) vs SAC (23rd)

CHI @ LAL (O/U: 236.5, Spread: -9.5)

• Pace: CHI (3rd) vs LAL (20th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: CHI (18th) vs LAL (11th)
• Def Eff: CHI (20th) vs LAL (12th)

Legend:

🏃 = Significant pace mismatch

🔥 = Strong offense vs weak defense

🎯 = Poor defensive team

⚠️ = Blowout risk

Bold = Favored team

PG - Ryan Rollins ($3,800)

Ryan Rollins is shaping up to be one of the most intriguing value plays on the slate at just $3,800. With Damian Lillard sidelined, Rollins is projected for 29 minutes against Sacramento, a team that struggles defensively, especially in high-paced environments. His 25.26 DK point projection gives him an impressive 6.65x value, and his ability to contribute across multiple stat categories was evident in his recent spot start where he posted 30.8 DK points with solid peripherals like five rebounds, four assists, and three steals. At 0.87 FPPM and a 32.3% Boom percentage, he has the upside to significantly outperform his salary in this matchup.

The challenge with Rollins lies in his sky-high ownership (64.7%), which makes him a clear chalk play tonight. However, given his price tag and strong chances of hitting value (appearing in over 32% of optimal lineups), fading him could be risky unless you have a solid pivot in mind. Sacramento’s defensive vulnerabilities combined with Milwaukee’s need for backcourt production without Lillard make Rollins’ role secure enough to justify the chalk here. While he may not be a sneaky tournament play, locking him into your cash lineups feels like the right move given his combination of opportunity and price efficiency.

More PG Plays:

• Brandin Podziemski ($6,000)
• Trae Young ($9,900)
• Luka Doncic ($12,600)

SG - Brandin Podziemski ($6,000)

Brandin Podziemski ($6,000) is shaping up as a solid mid-range option on tonight’s slate, especially with Stephen Curry sidelined. He’s projected for 32 minutes and offers strong value at 5.51x with a projection of 33 DK points. Over the last three games where he’s seen significant minutes, Podziemski has averaged 29.0 DK points, including a ceiling game of 42.8 DK points against Charlotte. His ability to contribute across multiple categories (points, rebounds, steals) makes him a versatile DFS play, and his 1.03 FPPM suggests he can deliver even in an average matchup. Atlanta is middle-of-the-road defensively but ranks in the bottom half of the league in defensive efficiency against guards, giving Podziemski room to capitalize.

The biggest question here is ownership—he’s projected to be rostered by nearly 30% of the field, making him one of the chalkier plays on the slate. However, this feels like justified chalk given his role with Curry out and his consistent production when given minutes. Additionally, his Boom% of 24.2% and appearance in nearly 22% of optimal lineups indicate he’s not just safe but also carries upside at this price point. While you’ll want some differentiation elsewhere in tournaments, fading him entirely could leave you chasing if he hits value or exceeds it in this spot.

More SG Plays:

• Coby White ($8,000)
• Mikal Bridges ($6,200)
• Miles McBride ($5,600)

SF - Jimmy Butler ($8,500)

Jimmy Butler ($8,500) is in a strong spot tonight against Atlanta, and his recent form makes him one of the most appealing plays on the slate. Over his last three games, Butler has averaged 51.9 DK points while logging at least 33 minutes per contest. With Stephen Curry potentially sidelined, Butler’s role as a primary playmaker and scorer becomes even more critical for Golden State, further solidifying his floor. His 1.33 FPPM production, combined with a projection of 45.08 DK points and a solid 5.3x value, makes him a standout option in both cash games and tournaments. Atlanta ranks middle-of-the-pack defensively against forwards, so there’s no glaring matchup concern here either.

The biggest question is whether Butler’s high ownership (31.6%) justifies eating the chalk in tournaments. With a 30.1% optimal lineup rate and a top-three tournament rank, it’s clear that he’s projected to deliver in this spot more often than not. His ability to contribute across all categories gives him legitimate upside (25.1% Boom%), and his recent triple-double potential only strengthens that case. While fading such high ownership might seem tempting in GPPs, Butler’s combination of reliability and ceiling makes him tough to ignore on this slate—especially when you consider how integral he’ll be to Golden State staying competitive without Curry on the floor.

More SF Plays:

• Josh Giddey ($8,600)
• Mikal Bridges ($6,200)
• OG Anunoby ($6,800)

PF - Giannis Antetokounmpo ($12,000)

Giannis Antetokounmpo is in a prime spot tonight against the Kings, and while his $12,000 salary is steep, he projects as one of the top plays on the slate. With a 1.73 FPPM rate and a projection of 61.37 DK points, Giannis offers both an elite ceiling and strong value at 5.11x despite his high price tag. Sacramento’s fast-paced style (6th in pace) should create plenty of opportunities for Giannis to rack up fantasy points, especially given his ability to dominate across multiple stat categories. The Kings also rank in the bottom half of the league in defensive efficiency, making this matchup even more enticing for the Bucks’ superstar.

Ownership-wise, Giannis comes in at 22.2%, which is moderately chalky but justified given his slate-leading optimal lineup rate (28.82%) and tournament rank. He’s projected to play 35+ minutes in what should be a competitive game environment with a high implied total, giving him plenty of chances to hit his ceiling. While there are cheaper options with decent upside, fading Giannis means passing on one of the most reliable floor/ceiling combos on the board tonight—something that could prove costly if he goes off as expected. If you’re paying up for a stud, it’s hard to argue against him here.

More PF Plays:

• Jonathan Kuminga ($5,300)
• Draymond Green ($6,700)
• OG Anunoby ($6,800)

C - Karl-Anthony Towns ($10,000)

Karl-Anthony Towns is in a prime spot tonight against the Wizards, a team that has struggled defensively all season, particularly in the paint. At $10,000, Towns projects for 50.9 DK points (1.52 FPPM) and offers strong value at 5.1x his salary. He’s been consistently productive over his last five games, averaging 25.8 points and 9 rebounds while logging heavy minutes in competitive matchups. With Jalen Brunson still sidelined, Towns remains the focal point of the Knicks’ offense, and Washington’s lack of interior defense only enhances his ceiling in this matchup.

At 26.7% projected ownership, Towns is one of the chalkier plays on the slate, but it’s hard to argue against it. He appears in 27.3% of optimal lineups and carries a solid 22% boom rate, making him worth anchoring your lineups despite the high ownership. If you’re playing tournaments and looking to differentiate elsewhere, you can still justify eating this chalk given his reliability and upside in this game environment. The Wizards’ defensive inefficiencies should allow Towns to dominate as both a scorer and rebounder, making him a strong option for both cash games and GPPs tonight.

More C Plays:

• Tristan Vukcevic ($4,400)
• Draymond Green ($6,700)
• Nikola Vucevic ($7,300)

Good luck tonight! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Player Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!