FREE 03/25 NBA Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s 8-game NBA slate offers plenty to dive into, with the action tipping off at 7:00 PM ET and wrapping up with a late-night hammer at 10:00 PM ET. Two games stand out from a DFS perspective due to their high totals: Memphis at Utah (240.0) and Atlanta at Houston (235.5). Both feature fast-paced teams and should provide strong environments for fantasy production. Identifying the right pieces in these matchups could be key, but don’t overlook potential value in other spots on the slate.

With eight games, there’s a good mix of options across different price ranges, so roster construction will be interesting. Late swap could also play a role given the spread-out schedule, especially with that juicy MEM-UTA game sitting in the middle of the slate. Balancing exposure to high-total games while finding value elsewhere is always a challenge, but this slate sets up nicely for those willing to take some calculated risks.

Game Environment Analysis

ORL @ CHA (O/U: 213.5, Spread: 5.5)

• Pace: ORL (27th) vs CHA (22nd)
• Off Eff: ORL (28th) vs CHA (29th)
• Def Eff: ORL (2nd) vs CHA (24th)

SAS @ DET (O/U: 233.5, Spread: -10.5)

• Pace: SAS (13th) vs DET (5th)
• Off Eff: SAS (14th) vs DET (15th)
• Def Eff: SAS (25th) 🎯 vs DET (9th)

GSW @ MIA (O/U: 216.5, Spread: 5.5)

• Pace: GSW (16th) vs MIA (28th)
• Off Eff: GSW (17th) vs MIA (22nd)
• Def Eff: GSW (8th) vs MIA (13th)

DAL @ NYK (O/U: 225.0, Spread: -10.5)

• Pace: DAL (14th) vs NYK (26th)
• Off Eff: DAL (10th) vs NYK (5th) 🔥
• Def Eff: DAL (20th) vs NYK (15th)

ATL @ HOU (O/U: 235.5, Spread: -7.5)

• Pace: ATL (2nd) vs HOU (19th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: ATL (19th) vs HOU (20th)
• Def Eff: ATL (16th) vs HOU (3rd)

MEM @ UTA (O/U: 240.0, Spread: 10.5)

• Pace: MEM (1st) vs UTA (6th)
• Off Eff: MEM (6th) 🔥 vs UTA (25th)
• Def Eff: MEM (11th) vs UTA (29th) 🎯

CLE @ POR (O/U: 230.0, Spread: 6.5)

• Pace: CLE (8th) vs POR (17th)
• Off Eff: CLE (1st) 🔥 vs POR (23rd)
• Def Eff: CLE (7th) vs POR (18th)

OKC @ SAC (O/U: 233.5, Spread: 9.0)

• Pace: OKC (10th) vs SAC (18th)
• Off Eff: OKC (4th) 🔥 vs SAC (8th)
• Def Eff: OKC (1st) vs SAC (23rd)

Legend:

🏃 = Significant pace mismatch

🔥 = Strong offense vs weak defense

🎯 = Poor defensive team

⚠️ = Blowout risk

Bold = Favored team

PG - Scotty Pippen Jr. ($5,000)

Scotty Pippen Jr. ($5,000) is shaping up to be one of the most intriguing plays on tonight’s slate. At just $5K, he’s projected for 32.67 DK points, which translates to an excellent 6.53x value. His consistent production as a starter—averaging 12.6 points, 5.1 assists, 3.6 rebounds, and 2.3 steals over his last seven games—makes him a reliable option in cash games while still offering upside for tournaments with a solid 40.74% boom rate and a strong FPPM of 1.19. The matchup against Utah is also favorable; the Jazz rank near the bottom of the league in defensive efficiency against opposing guards this season, and Pippen’s ability to contribute across multiple categories gives him a high floor in this spot.

However, his projected ownership of 50.15% makes him one of the chalkiest plays on the slate, so it’s worth considering how you want to approach him in tournaments. On one hand, his inclusion in nearly 30% of optimal lineups suggests he’s a foundational piece tonight at this price point; fading him could leave you chasing value elsewhere that might not match his ceiling or consistency. On the other hand, if you’re looking for leverage in GPPs, pivoting off such high ownership might make sense depending on your risk tolerance and roster construction strategy. Ultimately, Pippen Jr.'s combination of price, role, and matchup makes him difficult to ignore—even as chalk—on a night where guard value is limited at this salary range.

More PG Plays:

• Cameron Payne ($4,600)
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($11,200)
• Keyonte George ($6,100)

SG - Cameron Payne ($4,600)

Cameron Payne is shaping up as one of the better value plays on the slate at just $4,600. With Jalen Brunson and Miles McBride sidelined, Payne is locked into a starting role and should see around 29 minutes against Dallas. In his most recent start, he delivered 31.5 DK points in 30 minutes, showcasing his ability to contribute across multiple categories. His 0.98 FPPM production combined with a strong 6.2x value projection makes him an appealing option, especially in cash games where his floor feels relatively safe given the opportunity and price point.

The main drawback here is Payne’s high projected ownership (28.6%), which will make him one of the chalkiest plays on the slate. However, that level of popularity seems warranted given his combination of price, role, and matchup against a Mavericks team that struggles defensively against guards. He’s appearing in nearly 20% of optimal lineups for good reason, but if you’re looking to differentiate in tournaments, it’s worth considering pivots or pairing Payne with lower-owned plays to balance your lineup’s overall exposure.

More SG Plays:

• Desmond Bane ($8,900)
• Franz Wagner ($8,800)
• Mikal Bridges ($6,500)

SF - Deni Avdija ($7,700)

Deni Avdija is shaping up as one of the stronger plays on this slate at $7,700. He’s been thriving in an expanded role for Portland, averaging 25.6 points, 11.1 rebounds, and 5.4 assists over his last seven games, with multiple ceiling performances during that stretch. His 1.18 FPPM production combined with a projected 34.5 minutes makes him a strong value at 5.27x his salary, and his ability to contribute across multiple categories gives him a solid floor with significant upside (23.6% Boom%). The matchup against Cleveland isn’t ideal—the Cavs are one of the better defensive teams in the league—but Avdija has shown he can produce even in tougher spots, as evidenced by his recent performances against Denver and Boston.

At an expected ownership of 20.3%, Avdija is chalky but justifiably so given his consistent production and high ceiling potential (17.4% Optimal%). While the ownership might deter some tournament players, he’s still worth considering in GPPs due to his ability to put up massive numbers when he gets hot—like the 64 DK points he dropped against Denver just two games ago. If you’re fading him, it’s more about leveraging the field than doubting his role or opportunity tonight. Overall, Avdija looks like a strong piece for both cash games and tournaments if you’re comfortable eating some chalk at this price point.

More SF Plays:

• Franz Wagner ($8,800)
• OG Anunoby ($6,900)
• Josh Hart ($8,000)

PF - Jaren Jackson Jr. ($7,800)

Jaren Jackson Jr. ($7,800) stands out as a strong option tonight against the Jazz, and his metrics back up the appeal. With a 1.39 FPPM rate and a projection of 41.74 DK points, he offers excellent value at 5.35x salary. Utah struggles defensively in the frontcourt, ranking in the bottom third of the league in DvP against bigs, which should give JJJ plenty of opportunities to produce across multiple categories. His ability to contribute blocks and steals (1+ per game recently) also raises his ceiling significantly in GPPs, where he’s projected to appear in 20.7% of optimal lineups.

At 14.8% ownership, Jackson will be relatively chalky compared to the field average, but it’s justified given his combination of floor and upside at this price point. While his recent performances have been inconsistent (topping 40 DK points just once in his last five games), this matchup presents an ideal bounce-back spot for him. If he can stay out of foul trouble and see around 30 minutes as projected, Jackson has legitimate “boom” potential with a 24.82% boom rate on tonight’s slate. He’s a solid mid-tier anchor worth considering for both cash games and tournaments alike.

More PF Plays:

• Paolo Banchero ($9,800)
• Bam Adebayo ($8,200)
• OG Anunoby ($6,900)

C - Karl-Anthony Towns ($10,000)

Karl-Anthony Towns is in a strong spot tonight against the Mavericks, and while his $10,000 salary might feel steep, the numbers back up his value. He’s projected for 52.4 DraftKings points with an impressive 5.24x value and a 25.8% boom rate, making him one of the top high-priced options on the slate. Dallas has struggled defensively against skilled big men, and with Towns averaging 1.5 FPPM over his last stretch of games, he’s primed to take advantage. The absence of Jalen Brunson has also forced Towns into a larger offensive role, which has translated into consistent production—he’s topped 43 DK points in four straight games while averaging nearly 36 minutes per contest.

The main question with Towns is whether his high ownership (24.5%) justifies playing him in tournaments. Given his strong projection and inclusion in 15.7% of optimal lineups, this chalk seems warranted for cash games or single-entry formats. In GPPs, though, you’ll need to weigh whether fading him can create leverage on a slate where he’ll be popular but not overwhelmingly so. Ultimately, Towns’ combination of floor and ceiling makes him one of the safer plays at center tonight, especially in what should be a competitive matchup against Dallas’ frontcourt rotation.

More C Plays:

• Bam Adebayo ($8,200)
• Alperen Sengun ($9,000)
• Evan Mobley ($8,500)

Good luck! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Player Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!