FREE 03/26 NBA Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s 6-game slate offers a nice mix of game environments, with two matchups standing out for DFS purposes. The Lakers and Pacers tip off at 7:30 PM ET in the highest total game of the night (236.5), featuring two teams that love to push the pace. Right behind it is the Wizards and Sixers at 7:00 PM ET, with a 231.0 total and a likely lopsided game script that could still produce strong individual performances. These are the spots where most DFS players will likely focus their attention, so it’ll be important to decide how much exposure you want to these high-scoring games.

The rest of the slate is filled with slower-paced matchups and lower totals, which might keep ownership down in those spots but could provide sneaky value if you pick your spots wisely. With the first game starting at 7:00 PM ET and the last one tipping off at 10:00 PM ET, there’s some room for late swap opportunities depending on how news breaks closer to lock. It’s shaping up to be a slate where balancing chalky plays from high-total games with contrarian options from less popular matchups could make all the difference.

Game Environment Analysis

WAS @ PHI (O/U: 231.0, Spread: -3.5)

• Pace: WAS (4th) vs PHI (25th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: WAS (30th) vs PHI (22nd)
• Def Eff: WAS (28th) 🎯 vs PHI (26th) 🎯

TOR @ BKN (O/U: 215.0, Spread: -2.5)

• Pace: TOR (11th) vs BKN (30th)
• Off Eff: TOR (26th) vs BKN (27th)
• Def Eff: TOR (18th) vs BKN (17th)

LAL @ IND (O/U: 236.5, Spread: 1.0)

• Pace: LAL (20th) vs IND (8th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: LAL (12th) vs IND (8th)
• Def Eff: LAL (13th) vs IND (14th)

LAC @ NYK (O/U: 218.0, Spread: 4.5)

• Pace: LAC (21st) vs NYK (26th)
• Off Eff: LAC (18th) vs NYK (5th)
• Def Eff: LAC (4th) vs NYK (15th)

MIL @ DEN (O/U: 223.0, Spread: -10.5)

• Pace: MIL (12th) vs DEN (5th)
• Off Eff: MIL (13th) vs DEN (3rd)
• Def Eff: MIL (11th) vs DEN (22nd)

BOS @ PHX (O/U: 221.0, Spread: 6.5)

• Pace: BOS (28th) vs PHX (24th)
• Off Eff: BOS (2nd) 🔥 vs PHX (7th)
• Def Eff: BOS (5th) vs PHX (27th) 🎯

Legend:

🏃 = Significant pace mismatch

🔥 = Strong offense vs weak defense

🎯 = Poor defensive team

⚠️ = Blowout risk

Bold = Favored team

PG - Kevin Porter Jr. ($4,600)

Kevin Porter Jr. ($4,600) stands out as one of the best value plays on the slate, and his numbers back it up. At just 26 projected minutes, he’s putting up an impressive 1.18 FPPM, which translates to a projection of 30.6 DK points and a massive 6.65x value. His Boom% of 40.91% and appearance in 33.64% of optimal lineups suggest he’s not only a strong cash game option but also viable for tournaments despite his chalky ownership (48.7%). The matchup against Denver isn’t ideal—they’re a solid defensive team—but at this price point, Porter doesn’t need to dominate to pay off. If Damian Lillard remains out, Porter’s role could expand further, making him even more appealing.

The high ownership is something to consider if you’re building tournament lineups, but this is chalk that feels justified given his price and upside. At $4,600, there’s limited risk here with plenty of room for him to exceed expectations based on his recent production and efficiency when given extended minutes (e.g., his 30.8 DK-point outing against Sacramento in 27 minutes). While fading highly owned players can be tempting in GPPs, Porter’s combination of floor and ceiling makes him difficult to ignore tonight in any format.

More PG Plays:

• Luka Doncic ($12,000)
• Tyrese Haliburton ($8,400)
• D’Angelo Russell ($5,800)

SG - AJ Johnson ($4,500)

At $4,500, AJ Johnson stands out as one of the best value plays on the slate. Projected for 26.4 DK points in 28 minutes, he offers a solid 5.9x value with a respectable 0.94 FPPM rate. Johnson has been productive in his recent stretch of extended playing time, averaging 11.5 points, 3.8 assists, and over one steal per game across his last six contests. His matchup against the Sixers isn’t ideal given their defensive reputation, but it’s worth noting that Philadelphia’s second unit is more vulnerable, which aligns with Johnson’s role as a high-usage bench player for Washington.

At 16.7% projected ownership, Johnson falls into moderately chalky territory, but that level of interest feels justified given his combination of salary relief and upside (26.3% Boom%). He also appears in nearly a quarter of optimal lineups (22.6%), further reinforcing his viability as a value option tonight. While he won’t be sneaky by any means, Johnson provides flexibility to fit in higher-priced studs while still offering legitimate upside in GPPs at this price point—especially if he can replicate some of his recent success across multiple stat categories.

More SG Plays:

• Gary Trent Jr. ($4,400)
• Devin Booker ($9,200)
• Ziaire Williams ($4,500)

SF - Kyle Kuzma ($5,900)

Kyle Kuzma stands out as one of the best value plays on tonight’s slate at just $5,900. He’s projected for 35.04 DK points, which gives him a strong 5.94x value rating, and he’s appearing in nearly 24% of optimal lineups. With a solid FPPM rate of 1.03 and an expected 34 minutes of court time, Kuzma has both the role and efficiency to deliver in this spot. The matchup against Denver isn’t ideal given their slower pace and defensive capabilities, but Kuzma’s ability to contribute across multiple categories—highlighted by his recent double-double performances—makes him less dependent on pure scoring to hit value. His 33.5% boom percentage further reinforces his upside for tournaments.

The biggest consideration here is Kuzma’s hefty projected ownership at 37.2%, which makes him one of the chalkier options on the slate. While that level of popularity might scare some off in GPPs, it feels justified given his price tag and consistent production since joining Milwaukee’s starting lineup. If you’re playing cash games or building around a balanced core, Kuzma is tough to fade tonight. For tournaments, he’s still viable but pairing him with lower-owned pivots elsewhere could help differentiate your lineup while keeping exposure to his high ceiling intact.

More SF Plays:

• LeBron James ($10,300)
• Justin Edwards ($5,700)
• Gary Trent Jr. ($4,400)

PF - Justin Edwards ($5,700)

Justin Edwards ($5,700) stands out as one of the strongest value plays on the slate, and his high ownership (23.5%) is well-deserved. Projected for 35 minutes against a subpar Washington defense, Edwards offers a solid combination of floor and ceiling with his 0.94 FPPM production and a projected 32.97 DK points. Over his last five games, he’s averaged 33 DK points while showcasing consistent scoring ability (18.8 PPG) and peripheral stats like steals and blocks that add to his upside. His Boom% of 27.2% and appearance in nearly a quarter of optimal lineups (23.8%) reinforce why he’s chalk worth eating tonight.

The matchup against Washington makes him even more appealing, as they’ve struggled defensively all season, particularly on the wing. At $5,700, Edwards provides nearly 6x value with significant upside in this fast-paced game environment where Philly will likely lean on him for scoring alongside their depleted lineup. While the high ownership might make him less attractive in large-field tournaments if you’re chasing uniqueness, it’s hard to argue against locking him into cash games or smaller GPPs given his consistency and role.

More PF Plays:

• LeBron James ($10,300)
• Trendon Watford ($4,600)
• Kawhi Leonard ($8,800)

C - Tristan Vukcevic ($4,300)

Tristan Vukcevic stands out as one of the best value plays on the slate at just $4,300. With a strong 1.2 FPPM rate and a projection of 28.8 DK points, he’s offering a massive 6.7x value in his matchup against the Sixers. While Philadelphia’s interior defense is no joke with Joel Embiid anchoring the paint, Vukcevic’s ability to stretch the floor (shooting 41% from three over his last five games) makes him less reliant on traditional post production and more versatile in how he can rack up fantasy points. His recent stat lines show consistent scoring in limited minutes, and with a projected 24 minutes tonight, he has legitimate upside to hit his ceiling.

The ownership (24.9%) is high but justifiable given his tournament-leading Boom% of 39.1% and appearance in 28.2% of optimal lineups. Chalk this good at $4,300 shouldn’t be ignored, especially when it opens up salary for higher-priced studs elsewhere on your roster. The Wizards’ rotation remains fluid late in the season, which could mean additional opportunities for Vukcevic if Washington leans into developing younger players down the stretch. He’s not without risk—minutes volatility always exists—but as far as mid-range chalk goes, he checks enough boxes to warrant serious consideration in both cash games and tournaments tonight.

More C Plays:

• Alexandre Sarr ($6,300)
• Brook Lopez ($6,000)
• Trendon Watford ($4,600)

Good luck tonight! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Player Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!