FREE 03/31 NBA Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s 7-game slate brings plenty of intrigue for DFS, with a couple of high-total matchups that should catch your attention. The Bulls at Thunder game (240.0 total) stands out as the highest on the slate, featuring two teams that can push the pace and create plenty of fantasy opportunities. Right behind it is the Kings at Pacers (235.5 total), another fast-paced affair with two offenses capable of putting up points in bunches. These games will likely draw a lot of ownership, so how you approach them could make or break your night.

The staggered start times also add some strategy to this slate, with the first tip-off at 7:00 PM ET and the final game starting at 8:30 PM ET. There’s not much late swap opportunity here, so getting your lineups right from the jump will be key. Outside of the obvious high-total spots, finding value in slower-paced games or pivoting to lower-owned plays could give you an edge if those chalkier matchups underwhelm. It’s a fun slate with some clear targets—now it’s all about nailing the right mix.

Game Environment Analysis

UTA @ CHA (O/U: 221.0, Spread: -2.5)

• Pace: UTA (6th) vs CHA (22nd) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: UTA (25th) vs CHA (30th)
• Def Eff: UTA (30th) 🎯 vs CHA (23rd)

SAC @ IND (O/U: 235.5, Spread: -4.0)

• Pace: SAC (18th) vs IND (9th)
• Off Eff: SAC (9th) vs IND (7th) 🔥
• Def Eff: SAC (24th) vs IND (16th)

LAC @ ORL (O/U: 210.0, Spread: 2.5)

• Pace: LAC (21st) vs ORL (27th)
• Off Eff: LAC (16th) vs ORL (27th)
• Def Eff: LAC (4th) vs ORL (2nd)

MIA @ WAS (O/U: 215.5, Spread: 9.0)

• Pace: MIA (30th) vs WAS (4th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: MIA (21st) vs WAS (29th)
• Def Eff: MIA (12th) vs WAS (29th) 🎯

BOS @ MEM (O/U: 235.5, Spread: 5.0)

• Pace: BOS (29th) vs MEM (1st) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: BOS (2nd) vs MEM (6th)
• Def Eff: BOS (5th) vs MEM (10th)

CHI @ OKC (O/U: 240.0, Spread: -14.0)

• Pace: CHI (3rd) vs OKC (10th)
• Off Eff: CHI (18th) vs OKC (4th) 🔥
• Def Eff: CHI (20th) vs OKC (1st)

BKN @ DAL (O/U: 216.5, Spread: -9.0)

• Pace: BKN (28th) vs DAL (13th)
• Off Eff: BKN (28th) vs DAL (12th)
• Def Eff: BKN (18th) vs DAL (19th)

Legend:

🏃 = Significant pace mismatch

🔥 = Strong offense vs weak defense

🎯 = Poor defensive team

⚠️ = Blowout risk

Bold = Favored team

PG - KJ Simpson ($4,900)

KJ Simpson ($4,900) is shaping up as one of the strongest value plays on the slate, and his 35.2% projected ownership reflects that. With LaMelo Ball sidelined, Simpson has stepped into a starting role for Charlotte, averaging 31.7 minutes across five starts this season. His per-minute production (0.96 FPPM) combined with a 32.5-minute projection makes him an appealing option, particularly at this salary. Utah isn’t a defensive juggernaut against point guards, and Simpson’s ability to contribute across multiple categories—points, assists, and steals—gives him a solid floor with upside for tournaments (34.9% Boom%).

The high ownership is worth noting, but it seems justified given his strong 6.3x value projection and the fact that he appears in nearly 31% of optimal lineups. While his recent games have been inconsistent from a fantasy standpoint, his opportunity in this spot is hard to ignore at sub-$5K pricing. If you’re playing cash games or looking for stable value in tournaments, Simpson fits the bill as chalk worth eating tonight. Just be mindful of lineup construction if you’re trying to differentiate elsewhere in GPPs.

More PG Plays:

• Tyler Herro ($8,800)
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($11,000)
• Tyrese Haliburton ($8,600)

SG - AJ Johnson ($4,800)

AJ Johnson ($4,800) presents an intriguing value option on tonight’s slate, especially with his projected 34 minutes against Miami. While his 0.79 FPPM doesn’t jump off the page, he’s expected to return strong value at 5.57x and appears in nearly 20% of optimal lineups. Miami is a tough defensive matchup overall, but their slower pace could actually work in Johnson’s favor by keeping him on the floor longer in what should be a competitive game. With Khris Middleton sidelined, Johnson has seen an expanded role lately and just dropped a season-high 20 points in 42 minutes against Brooklyn—a clear sign he can produce when given the opportunity.

At a moderate ownership of 12.7%, Johnson isn’t exactly flying under the radar, but he also isn’t chalky enough to scare you off in tournaments. His boom percentage of 22.4% suggests legitimate upside for his price point if he can build on his recent performances as a starter. The key here will be how much involvement he maintains alongside Jordan Poole and Alex Sarr, who both demand usage on offense. Still, at sub-$5k with significant minutes locked in, Johnson offers strong value and makes for a solid mid-tier play in both cash games and GPPs.

More SG Plays:

• Franz Wagner ($8,700)
• Coby White ($8,300)
• Dalen Terry ($3,500)

SF - Jaylen Martin ($4,100)

Jaylen Martin ($4,100) is shaping up as one of the more intriguing value plays on tonight’s slate, but his heavy projected ownership (36.6%) raises important questions for tournament players. The matchup against Miami isn’t ideal, as they’re a disciplined defensive team that tends to slow the pace of games. However, Martin’s projected 29 minutes and solid 5.88x value make him a viable option at this price point. Over his last three meaningful outings, he’s averaged 24 DK points while contributing across multiple categories, which highlights his ability to deliver at least a serviceable floor when given consistent run.

The big concern here is whether Martin’s chalky ownership aligns with his upside. At just 0.83 FPPM and a Boom% of 23.75%, his ceiling isn’t particularly high compared to other value options in this range, which could limit his appeal in large-field GPPs where differentiation matters. That said, his presence in 17.84% of optimal lineups suggests he’s still a reasonable play for cash games or single-entry contests where safety outweighs leverage. If you’re looking to fade the chalk in tournaments, consider pivoting to lower-owned options with higher ceilings in similar price ranges—but keep Martin firmly on your radar if you need salary relief without sacrificing too much stability.

More SF Plays:

• Jayson Tatum ($10,200)
• Franz Wagner ($8,700)
• Coby White ($8,300)

PF - Pascal Siakam ($7,600)

Pascal Siakam comes in at $7,600 tonight with a strong projection of 39.8 DK points, making him one of the better value plays on the slate at 5.24x. The matchup against Sacramento is appealing, as the Kings rank in the bottom third of the league in defensive efficiency and play at a top-five pace, creating an ideal game environment for DFS production. Siakam’s 1.19 FPPM and projected 33.5 minutes give him a solid floor, and his Boom% of 24.1% highlights his potential to exceed expectations in tournaments. While his recent performances have been somewhat inconsistent, this is a spot where his all-around game—scoring, rebounding, and playmaking—could shine.

The main concern here is ownership, as Siakam is projected to be rostered by 33.2% of the field—a significant number on any slate. That said, this chalk feels justified given his optimal lineup rate of 22.4% and tournament rank of sixth overall. He offers both safety for cash games and upside for GPPs in what should be a high-scoring contest against Sacramento’s uptempo style. Fading him could pay off if he underwhelms again like in recent games, but it’s a risky proposition given how well he projects relative to his salary and role tonight.

More PF Plays:

• Jayson Tatum ($10,200)
• Paolo Banchero ($9,700)
• Anthony Davis ($9,600)

C - Thomas Bryant ($3,200)

Thomas Bryant stands out as one of the best value plays on the slate at just $3,200. With a projection of 27.2 DK points and an impressive 8.5x value, he’s tough to ignore, even in tournaments where ownership (34.6%) becomes a concern. His projected 27.5 minutes against Sacramento offers plenty of opportunity for production, especially with his solid 0.99 FPPM rate. The Kings rank among the league’s weaker defenses, particularly in the frontcourt, making this matchup an appealing spot for Bryant to capitalize on increased playing time. Given his inclusion in 32.4% of optimal lineups and a boom percentage of nearly 55%, it’s clear that the data supports him as a strong play.

The high ownership might give some pause, but at this salary and value projection, it feels justified—especially for cash games or single-entry contests where you don’t want to fall behind the field. In GPPs, there’s some risk given his inconsistency when Myles Turner is active, as seen in recent games where his minutes have fluctuated significantly. However, if Bryant sees closer to his projected workload tonight, he has clear upside at this price point. Ultimately, he’s worth the chalk in most formats due to his combination of opportunity and efficiency in a favorable game environment against Sacramento’s fast-paced offense and porous defense.

More C Plays:

• Oscar Tshiebwe ($4,000)
• Anthony Davis ($9,600)
• Bam Adebayo ($8,600)

Good luck tonight! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Player Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!