FREE 04/02 NBA Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

We’ve got an 8-game NBA DFS slate tonight, starting at 7:00 PM ET and wrapping up with the late game at 9:30 PM ET. Two matchups stand out from a totals perspective: ATL at DAL (240.5) and DET at OKC (233.5). Both games feature high paces and plenty of DFS potential, so expect heavy interest in those spots. The rest of the slate has a mix of slower matchups and mid-range totals, which could lead to some interesting roster construction decisions.

With the late game carrying one of the highest totals on the slate, there’s solid late-swap potential if you want to pivot based on early results. Targeting fast-paced environments like ATL-DAL is always appealing, but don’t overlook opportunities in less obvious spots if ownership condenses around the high-total games. It’s a fun slate with enough variety to reward creative builds—let’s see how it plays out!

Game Environment Analysis

NYK @ CLE (O/U: 230.5, Spread: -10.5)

• Pace: NYK (26th) vs CLE (5th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: NYK (5th) vs CLE (1st) 🔥
• Def Eff: NYK (14th) vs CLE (8th)

CHA @ IND (O/U: 221.5, Spread: -15.5)

• Pace: CHA (22nd) vs IND (9th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: CHA (29th) vs IND (8th) 🔥
• Def Eff: CHA (23rd) vs IND (15th)
  ⚠️ Blowout risk

SAC @ WAS (O/U: 232.0, Spread: 13.5)

• Pace: SAC (18th) vs WAS (4th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: SAC (10th) 🔥 vs WAS (30th)
• Def Eff: SAC (24th) vs WAS (29th) 🎯

MIA @ BOS (O/U: 211.5, Spread: -10.0)

• Pace: MIA (28th) vs BOS (27th)
• Off Eff: MIA (21st) vs BOS (2nd)
• Def Eff: MIA (11th) vs BOS (5th)

UTA @ HOU (O/U: 228.0, Spread: -16.0)

• Pace: UTA (10th) vs HOU (19th)
• Off Eff: UTA (25th) vs HOU (20th)
• Def Eff: UTA (30th) 🎯 vs HOU (3rd)
  ⚠️ Blowout risk

ATL @ DAL (O/U: 240.5, Spread: -4.0)

• Pace: ATL (3rd) vs DAL (13th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: ATL (19th) vs DAL (12th)
• Def Eff: ATL (17th) vs DAL (19th)

SAS @ DEN (O/U: 231.5, Spread: -9.5)

• Pace: SAS (14th) vs DEN (8th)
• Off Eff: SAS (15th) vs DEN (3rd) 🔥
• Def Eff: SAS (25th) 🎯 vs DEN (21st)

DET @ OKC (O/U: 233.5, Spread: -13.0)

• Pace: DET (6th) vs OKC (7th)
• Off Eff: DET (14th) vs OKC (4th)
• Def Eff: DET (9th) vs OKC (1st)

Legend:

🏃 = Significant pace mismatch

🔥 = Strong offense vs weak defense

🎯 = Poor defensive team

⚠️ = Blowout risk

Bold = Favored team

PG - Chris Paul ($4,300)

Chris Paul is an intriguing value play at $4,300, especially given his projected 5.75x value and strong 19.8% optimal lineup rate. Despite his recent shooting struggles, Paul has shown he can still contribute across multiple categories, as evidenced by his 34.3 DK points in a solid all-around performance against Orlando just two games ago. His 0.99 FPPM production combined with an expected 25 minutes of court time makes him a viable option in tournaments, particularly at this price point. The matchup against Denver isn’t ideal—the Nuggets are a tough defensive unit—but Paul’s ability to rack up assists and steals could help mitigate scoring inefficiencies.

The biggest question here is ownership—Paul is projected to be rostered by 28.3% of the field, making him one of the chalkier plays on the slate. While this level of popularity might deter some from using him in GPPs, it’s hard to ignore the value he provides at such a low salary. If you’re comfortable eating some chalk, Paul offers flexibility for paying up elsewhere in your lineup while still maintaining a reasonable ceiling for his price tag. However, if you’re looking to differentiate your lineup in tournaments, fading Paul could make sense given his recent inconsistency and Denver’s defensive prowess.

More PG Plays:

• Stephon Castle ($6,900)
• Trae Young ($9,800)
• Tyrese Haliburton ($8,700)

SG - Julian Champagnie ($3,400)

At just $3,400, Julian Champagnie is one of the most intriguing value plays on the slate. With a projected 30 minutes and a solid 0.94 FPPM, he’s expected to deliver 28.1 DK points, which translates to an impressive 8.3x value. His recent performances have been encouraging as well, including a 29-point DK outing in his last game where he played 32 minutes and knocked down five triples. Denver isn’t necessarily a soft matchup, but Champagnie’s ability to stretch the floor from deep makes him less reliant on attacking the paint against Nikola Jokic and company. The Spurs are likely to lean on his scoring punch off the bench, especially in what could become a high-paced game environment.

The biggest question here is whether his massive 50.6% ownership is worth eating in tournaments. While that kind of chalk can feel risky, it seems justified given his projection and salary-based upside—he appears in nearly 38% of optimal lineups for good reason. His Boom% of 54.7% further underscores the potential ceiling relative to his price tag. If you’re looking for differentiation in large-field GPPs, you may consider pivoting elsewhere or limiting your exposure slightly, but fading completely could be costly given how well he fits into builds tonight.

More SG Plays:

• Stephon Castle ($6,900)
• Donovan Mitchell ($8,800)
• Mikal Bridges ($7,200)

SF - Keldon Johnson ($5,200)

At $5,200, Keldon Johnson stands out as one of the best value plays on the slate. With a 5.79x value and a projection of 30.1 DK points, he’s hard to ignore, especially given his 1.08 FPPM production this season. The Spurs will be shorthanded against Denver with key players like Devin Vassell and Jeremy Sochan already ruled out, meaning Johnson could be leaned on heavily for scoring and playmaking if he’s cleared to play. His recent performances show solid upside, including a 35.5 DK-point outing against Boston in just 34 minutes, so there’s reason to believe he can exceed his projection in this spot.

The main concern here is his questionable tag due to a back issue, but if Johnson suits up, the 15.2% projected ownership feels justified given his strong value and potential role in a depleted Spurs lineup. While Denver’s defense isn’t an easy matchup, the elevated pace and increased opportunity make him worth considering in tournaments. Keep an eye on injury news leading up to lock—if Johnson is confirmed in, he’s a strong mid-range option with both safety and ceiling at this price point.

More SF Plays:

• DeMar DeRozan ($8,100)
• Mikal Bridges ($7,200)
• Ausar Thompson ($5,600)

PF - Evan Mobley ($8,300)

Evan Mobley ($8,300) stands out as a solid option tonight despite his recent inconsistency. While his performance against Detroit was underwhelming, he bounced back with 42.8 DK points in his last game against the Clippers, showcasing his ability to fill the stat sheet when given minutes. At 1.31 FPPM and projected for 31.5 minutes, Mobley has a strong median projection of 41.4 DK points with an appealing 5x value at his salary. The Knicks are a tough matchup defensively, but they rank middle-of-the-pack against bigs, giving Mobley an opportunity to leverage his versatility as both a scorer and defender. His ability to contribute across categories adds to his appeal in tournaments, especially with a 15.1% Boom rate and ranking second overall in Hero GPP rankings.

The main concern is ownership, as Mobley is projected at 13.1%, making him one of the more popular plays on the slate relative to the field average of 4.3%. While that level of chalk may deter some DFS players looking for lower-owned options, it’s hard to argue against Mobley’s ceiling potential at this price point given his role and recent usage. If you’re comfortable eating some chalk in your lineups, Mobley offers both safety and upside in what should be a competitive game environment against New York.

More PF Plays:

• Sandro Mamukelashvili ($3,500)
• Anthony Davis ($9,600)
• Ausar Thompson ($5,600)

C - Domantas Sabonis ($9,500)

Domantas Sabonis is in a strong spot tonight, even at his $9,500 price tag. He’s been a consistent force on the glass, with 15+ rebounds in three of his last five games, and he’s showing the upside we need for tournaments by posting 55.8 DK points just two games ago. Facing a Washington team that ranks near the bottom of the league in defensive efficiency and struggles to contain opposing bigs, Sabonis should have no trouble producing another high-ceiling performance. His elite 1.43 FPPM and projected 35 minutes give him a solid floor, while his Boom% of 26.8% highlights the potential for a slate-breaking game.

The projected ownership of 21.6% does make him one of the chalkier plays on the slate, but it feels warranted given his value at 5.25x and inclusion in nearly 20% of optimal lineups. While you’ll want to differentiate elsewhere in tournaments, fading Sabonis entirely could be risky given his ability to dominate weak defensive matchups like this one. With Sacramento boasting one of the highest implied team totals on the slate, Sabonis is positioned as both a reliable anchor for cash games and a justifiable chalk option in GPPs.

More C Plays:

• Nikola Jokic ($12,500)
• Sandro Mamukelashvili ($3,500)
• Alperen Sengun ($8,700)

Good luck tonight! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Player Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!