FREE 04/04 NBA Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s 7-game NBA slate kicks off at 7:00 PM ET and offers some intriguing DFS opportunities, especially with two games standing out for their high totals. The matchup between Cleveland and San Antonio (241.5 total) at 8:00 PM ET leads the way, with plenty of potential for a fast-paced, high-scoring environment. Right behind it is Utah at Indiana (239.5 total), tipping off in the first game of the night, which also promises a ton of fantasy upside. These are the clear priority spots if you’re targeting game environments with ceiling potential.

With all games starting within an hour of each other, late swap flexibility won’t be as much of a factor tonight, so your edge will come from nailing those key matchups and totals. The slate feels pretty balanced overall, but prioritizing exposure to those high-total games while identifying value plays in slower-paced matchups could make all the difference. It’s shaping up to be a fun one—let’s see how it plays out!

Game Environment Analysis

UTA @ IND (O/U: 239.5, Spread: -16.0)

• Pace: UTA (8th) vs IND (10th)
• Off Eff: UTA (25th) vs IND (8th) 🔥
• Def Eff: UTA (30th) 🎯 vs IND (14th)
  ⚠️ Blowout risk

SAC @ CHA (O/U: 215.0, Spread: 10.5)

• Pace: SAC (19th) vs CHA (22nd)
• Off Eff: SAC (9th) 🔥 vs CHA (29th)
• Def Eff: SAC (24th) vs CHA (23rd)

PHX @ BOS (O/U: 226.0, Spread: -14.0)

• Pace: PHX (25th) vs BOS (28th)
• Off Eff: PHX (7th) vs BOS (2nd) 🔥
• Def Eff: PHX (27th) 🎯 vs BOS (5th)

DET @ TOR (O/U: 226.5, Spread: 11.5)

• Pace: DET (5th) vs TOR (11th)
• Off Eff: DET (16th) vs TOR (26th)
• Def Eff: DET (9th) vs TOR (16th)

POR @ CHI (O/U: 234.5, Spread: -6.0)

• Pace: POR (17th) vs CHI (2nd) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: POR (23rd) vs CHI (17th)
• Def Eff: POR (17th) vs CHI (22nd)

OKC @ HOU (O/U: 227.5, Spread: 6.0)

• Pace: OKC (6th) vs HOU (18th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: OKC (4th) vs HOU (19th)
• Def Eff: OKC (1st) vs HOU (3rd)

CLE @ SAS (O/U: 241.5, Spread: 13.0)

• Pace: CLE (9th) vs SAS (14th)
• Off Eff: CLE (1st) 🔥 vs SAS (15th)
• Def Eff: CLE (7th) vs SAS (25th) 🎯

Legend:

🏃 = Significant pace mismatch

🔥 = Strong offense vs weak defense

🎯 = Poor defensive team

⚠️ = Blowout risk

Bold = Favored team

PG - Chris Paul ($4,300)

Chris Paul ($4,300) stands out as one of the slate’s best value plays, offering a strong 5.81x value projection at his modest salary. With a 1.0 FPPM rate and an expected 25 minutes on the floor, Paul is positioned to exceed his price tag in a matchup against Cleveland. While the Cavaliers are known for their defensive prowess, Paul’s ability to contribute across multiple categories—assists, rebounds, and steals—gives him a solid floor for cash games. His recent performance against Denver (41.3 DK points) shows he still has upside when given extended run, making him an intriguing option for tournaments as well.

At 23% projected ownership, Paul will be popular tonight, but it’s easy to see why. He appears in 22.5% of optimal lineups and carries a 24.9% boom probability, indicating strong potential to outperform his salary-based expectations. While chalky plays can be risky in GPPs, Paul’s combination of low cost and steady production makes him less likely to hurt your lineup if he underperforms slightly. If you’re looking for reliable value without sacrificing upside, Paul is firmly in play across all formats tonight.

More PG Plays:

• Donovan Mitchell ($9,300)
• Tyrese Haliburton ($9,000)
• Anfernee Simons ($6,700)

SG - Anfernee Simons ($6,700)

Anfernee Simons ($6,700) presents an intriguing option tonight with a strong projection of 35.1 DK points and a solid 5.2x value. His 25.1% Boom percentage and appearance in 21.9% of optimal lineups suggest he’s a strong candidate for both cash games and tournaments, assuming he suits up against Chicago. The matchup itself is favorable, as the Bulls have struggled defensively against opposing guards, ranking in the bottom half of the league in DvP for both PGs and SGs. Simons’ ability to contribute across multiple categories (1.02 FPPM) makes him a reliable mid-tier option if he plays his projected 34+ minutes.

The main concern here is his questionable status due to a forearm injury that has already caused him to miss two games. This uncertainty may slightly suppress ownership despite his current projection of 15.8%. If he’s active, the chalk seems justified given his price point, upside, and role within Portland’s offense. However, if Simons sits again, Dalano Banton could become a viable value pivot depending on how the slate shakes out closer to lock. Keep an eye on news updates leading up to game time before locking him into your lineups.

More SG Plays:

• Donovan Mitchell ($9,300)
• Shaedon Sharpe ($7,600)
• Stephon Castle ($7,400)

SF - Deni Avdija ($9,400)

Deni Avdija is one of the most compelling plays on tonight’s slate at $9,400. He’s projected for 46.6 DK points with a strong 1.28 FPPM and is coming off back-to-back dominant performances, including a 32-point triple-double against Atlanta and a 26-point, 15-rebound effort versus Toronto. Over his last five games, Avdija has averaged an impressive 26.4 points, 11.2 rebounds, and 5.8 assists in nearly 36 minutes per game. With Chicago ranking in the middle of the pack defensively and Portland relying heavily on Avdija’s production, he has both the floor and ceiling to justify his elevated price tag.

The biggest question here is ownership—at 28.3%, he’ll be one of the chalkiest plays on the slate. While that level of popularity can sometimes signal a fade opportunity in tournaments, it feels warranted given his recent form and consistent ability to crush value (5x projection). He also appears in over 16% of optimal lineups, underscoring his viability even at high ownership levels. If you’re fading him in GPPs, it’s purely for leverage purposes because everything else—matchup, role, usage—points toward another strong outing from Avdija tonight.

More SF Plays:

• Brice Sensabaugh ($4,700)
• Jalen Williams ($8,100)
• Jayson Tatum ($11,000)

PF - Sandro Mamukelashvili ($3,700)

Sandro Mamukelashvili ($3,700) stands out as one of the top value plays on the slate tonight. With a 6.24x value projection and a strong 1.15 FPPM rate, he’s well-positioned to outperform his salary in just 20 projected minutes. His recent double-doubles against Denver and Golden State show he has ceiling potential when given extended run, and Cleveland’s frontcourt isn’t exactly a cakewalk, but their pace-down style could keep him involved in half-court sets where his versatility shines. At $3,700, he doesn’t need to do much to hit value, and his ability to contribute across multiple categories makes him an intriguing option in tournaments.

The ownership is worth noting at 19.3%, which is high for a player at this price point but not unreasonable given his metrics. He ranks first in tournament GPP rankings with a 27.4% boom rate and appears in over 26% of optimal lineups—meaning the chalk here might be justified for those looking to save salary while still chasing upside. However, there’s some volatility baked into this play; Mamukelashvili’s minutes have fluctuated recently, and with only two games above the 20-minute mark in his last 12 outings, he could easily underperform if his role diminishes. That said, at this price tag and with such favorable metrics, he’s hard to ignore as a key piece for roster construction tonight.

More PF Plays:

• Pascal Siakam ($7,600)
• Brice Sensabaugh ($4,700)
• Jalen Williams ($8,100)

C - Myles Turner ($6,300)

Myles Turner is shaping up as a strong mid-range center option at $6,300 tonight against the Utah Jazz. Turner’s 1.19 FPPM and a projected 33.2 DK points make him an excellent value at 5.3x, especially in a matchup where Utah’s interior defense has struggled all season. With Walker Kessler sidelined, the Jazz lack a true rim protector, which opens up opportunities for Turner to produce both as a scorer and rebounder. His ability to stretch the floor with his three-point shooting (4-for-6 from deep just two games ago) adds another layer of upside in this spot.

The main concern here is ownership, as Turner is projected to be rostered by over 20% of the field—well above average. While that chalk isn’t ideal for tournaments, it’s justified given his consistent production and role in Indiana’s offense. He’s posted at least 31 DK points in three of his last five games and has flashed legitimate ceiling games when given minutes in the low-30s range, which he should see tonight if this game stays competitive. With a top-four GPP rank and appearing in 12.4% of optimal lineups, Turner is a solid anchor for both cash games and tournaments despite his elevated ownership.

More C Plays:

• Domantas Sabonis ($10,100)
• Jalen Duren ($7,500)
• Nikola Vucevic ($7,900)

Good luck tonight! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Player Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!