FREE 04/10 NBA Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s 5-game NBA slate offers a solid mix of opportunities, with two standout matchups leading the way in terms of game environment. The highest total on the board belongs to CLE at IND (234.0), tipping off at 7:00 PM ET, followed closely by ATL at BKN (233.5) at 7:30 PM ET. Both games feature fast-paced teams and plenty of offensive potential, making them prime targets for DFS lineups. With these totals standing out from the rest of the slate, it’ll be interesting to see how ownership shakes out in these spots.

The staggered start times also give you some flexibility to adjust your builds as news comes in, with the final game (LAC at POR) not starting until 9:30 PM ET. That said, the early games look like where most of the action will be concentrated, so nailing those high-total matchups could be key. As always, prioritizing players in strong game environments while keeping an eye on value plays will be crucial in navigating this mid-sized slate. Let’s dive in and see what edges we can find!

Game Environment Analysis

NYK @ DET (O/U: 229.0, Spread: -3.5)

• Pace: NYK (26th) vs DET (6th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: NYK (5th) vs DET (18th)
• Def Eff: NYK (16th) vs DET (9th)

CLE @ IND (O/U: 234.0, Spread: -10.0)

• Pace: CLE (8th) vs IND (10th)
• Off Eff: CLE (1st) 🔥 vs IND (6th)
• Def Eff: CLE (8th) vs IND (15th)

ATL @ BKN (O/U: 233.5, Spread: 13.5)

• Pace: ATL (3rd) vs BKN (27th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: ATL (20th) vs BKN (28th)
• Def Eff: ATL (19th) vs BKN (18th)

NOP @ MIL (O/U: 221.0, Spread: -15.5)

• Pace: NOP (15th) vs MIL (14th)
• Off Eff: NOP (24th) vs MIL (12th)
• Def Eff: NOP (28th) 🎯 vs MIL (11th)
  ⚠️ Blowout risk

MIN @ MEM (O/U: 230.5, Spread: 2.0)

• Pace: MIN (23rd) vs MEM (1st) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: MIN (11th) vs MEM (7th)
• Def Eff: MIN (6th) vs MEM (10th)

Legend:

🏃 = Significant pace mismatch

🔥 = Strong offense vs weak defense

🎯 = Poor defensive team

⚠️ = Blowout risk

Bold = Favored team

PG - Ty Jerome ($4,700)

Ty Jerome ($4,700) stands out as one of the top value plays on tonight’s slate. Projected for 35.8 DraftKings points at a salary that requires just 23.5 points to hit value, Jerome offers a strong 7.6x return and an elite 59.2% Boom Rate. His recent production has been solid, averaging 27 DK points across his last five games while playing around 20-23 minutes per night. Tonight’s matchup against Indiana is particularly appealing, as the Pacers play at the league’s fastest pace and rank near the bottom in defensive efficiency, creating an ideal environment for Jerome to capitalize on his per-minute production of 1.23 FPPM.

The main concern here is ownership, with Jerome projected to be rostered by over 36% of the field—making him one of the chalkiest plays on the slate. However, this level of ownership feels justified given his combination of price, role, and matchup. Cleveland’s bench usage has leaned heavily on Jerome in recent games, and his ability to contribute across multiple categories makes him a strong candidate to exceed expectations in this high-paced game environment. If you’re building lineups around chalky plays tonight, Jerome is worth locking in; just make sure to differentiate elsewhere if you’re going overweight on him in tournaments.

More PG Plays:

• Trae Young ($9,900)
• Jalen Brunson ($8,800)
• Cade Cunningham ($10,500)

SG - Anthony Edwards ($9,500)

Anthony Edwards ($9,500) is shaping up as one of the strongest plays on tonight’s slate, even at elevated ownership (55.5%). With a 33.7% optimal lineup rate and a solid 4.85x value projection, he’s both a high-floor and high-ceiling option in this matchup against Memphis. Edwards has been carrying the Timberwolves offensively, averaging 27 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 4.4 assists over his last 10 games while logging heavy minutes (projected for 38 tonight). Memphis ranks middle-of-the-pack defensively against shooting guards but has struggled to contain volume scorers, particularly with Ja Morant and Desmond Bane focusing more on offensive production than defensive lockdowns. Edwards’ consistent ability to contribute across multiple categories—especially steals and blocks—bolsters his DFS appeal.

The high ownership is something to consider in tournaments, but it’s not unwarranted given his recent form and opportunity. Edwards has surpassed 43 DK points in four of his last five games, including a ceiling game of 62 DK points against Denver just a few nights ago. His usage remains elite, as evidenced by double-digit shot attempts from three-point range in three straight games. At $9,500, you’re paying for reliability with legitimate upside in a game where Minnesota will lean heavily on him to generate offense. While the chalk may be heavy here, fading him comes with significant risk given how integral he is to the Timberwolves’ success and his ability to fill up the stat sheet in all facets of the game.

More SG Plays:

• Antonio Reeves ($4,000)
• Dyson Daniels ($7,800)
• Caris LeVert ($4,500)

SF - Antonio Reeves ($4,000)

Antonio Reeves ($4,000) stands out as one of the best value plays on the slate tonight. Projected for 30.45 DK points at an impressive 7.61x value, Reeves offers significant upside in a matchup against Milwaukee. With New Orleans shorthanded and Reeves locked into heavy minutes (33 projected), he’s taken on a larger offensive role, averaging 15.4 points and 3.4 made threes over his last five games. His ability to contribute across multiple categories—along with a solid FPPM rate of 0.92—makes him an appealing option, especially given his strong Boom% of 51.89%. Milwaukee is no defensive pushover, but their focus will likely be on containing Brandon Ingram and Jonas Valančiūnas, leaving Reeves with opportunities to exploit less attention on the perimeter.

At 30.6% projected ownership, Reeves will be chalky, but it’s hard to argue against it given his price tag and role in this spot. He appears in 32.5% of optimal lineups for good reason: he provides elite salary relief without sacrificing upside, making him viable in both cash games and tournaments despite the high ownership. While there’s always some risk in relying on shooting efficiency for value plays like Reeves, his recent performances (29+ DK points in two straight games) suggest he’s more than capable of delivering at this price point. If you’re comfortable eating the chalk here, Reeves is a great building block for your lineups tonight.

More SF Plays:

• Keion Brooks Jr. ($4,100)
• De’Andre Hunter ($4,300)
• Caris LeVert ($4,500)

PF - Karlo Matkovic ($4,600)

Karlo Matkovic is shaping up to be one of the most intriguing value plays on tonight’s slate at just $4,600. Projected for 34.3 DK points with a strong 1.04 FPPM and a Boom% of 55.9%, he offers tremendous upside for his salary. The matchup against Milwaukee isn’t ideal on paper, but Matkovic’s recent production suggests he can overcome it—he’s averaged 13.1 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 2 assists over his last seven games while playing limited minutes. Now projected for 33 minutes, his expanded role makes him an even better value with a stellar 7.5x return potential and inclusion in nearly 36% of optimal lineups.

At an expected ownership of 20.1%, Matkovic is chalky compared to the field average, but it feels warranted given his price point and opportunity tonight. While Milwaukee’s defense can be tough inside, the Pelicans will likely rely on him to help space the floor and contribute defensively against a formidable Bucks frontcourt. If you’re comfortable eating some chalk in GPPs, Matkovic provides solid leverage through his efficiency and multi-category production potential. He’s not a must-play in tournaments due to his ownership, but fading him entirely could leave you missing out on significant value if he hits his ceiling performance in this spot.

More PF Plays:

• Giannis Antetokounmpo ($12,700)
• Keion Brooks Jr. ($4,100)
• Precious Achiuwa ($3,300)

C - Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,700)

Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,700) is shaping up as one of the top plays on tonight’s slate, and for good reason. He’s projected for nearly 50 DK points (1.43 FPPM), and his 38.6% optimal lineup rate underscores just how strong a value he represents at this salary. Facing the Pistons, a team that struggles defensively in the paint and ranks near the bottom of the league in defensive efficiency, Towns is in a prime spot to deliver another high-ceiling performance. Over his last five games, he’s averaging 45+ DK points per contest with consistent double-doubles, showing both reliability and upside—exactly what you want from a cornerstone DFS play.

The only potential drawback here is ownership, with Towns expected to be rostered in over 30% of lineups—a significant number compared to field averages. While this level of chalk might scare off some tournament players, it feels justified given his strong matchup and recent form. His ability to contribute across multiple categories makes him hard to fade in any format tonight, especially when paired with his 22.8% boom rate. If you’re looking to differentiate elsewhere, Towns still feels like a safe anchor for your lineups in what should be an advantageous spot against Detroit’s frontcourt.

More C Plays:

• Giannis Antetokounmpo ($12,700)
• Precious Achiuwa ($3,300)
• Onyeka Okongwu ($8,400)

Good luck today! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Player Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!