FREE 04/23 NBA Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

It’s a tight 3-game slate tonight, which means every decision will matter that much more. The action tips off at 7:00 PM ET, but the two games with the most DFS appeal are MIA at CLE (212.0 total) at 7:30 PM ET and GSW at HOU (204.0 total) closing things out at 9:30 PM ET. The Miami-Cleveland matchup has the highest total on the slate, and while it’s not a track meet, it should draw attention given its potential for concentrated production from key players. Meanwhile, Golden State’s pace always makes them intriguing, even in a lower-total game like their matchup with Houston.

With fewer games to choose from, ownership is likely to condense around some obvious plays, so finding ways to differentiate your lineup will be crucial. Late swap could be particularly important tonight with the Warriors-Rockets game offering a chance to adjust if you’re behind early. Keep an eye on how the field approaches these totals and look for opportunities to pivot where it makes sense. It’s all about maximizing value on a slate this small while staying sharp on game environments.

Game Environment Analysis

ORL @ BOS (O/U: 196.0, Spread: -10.5)

• Pace: ORL (29th) vs BOS (30th)
• Off Eff: ORL (27th) vs BOS (2nd)
• Def Eff: ORL (2nd) vs BOS (3rd)

MIA @ CLE (O/U: 212.0, Spread: -12.0)

• Pace: MIA (28th) vs CLE (10th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: MIA (21st) vs CLE (1st) 🔥
• Def Eff: MIA (11th) vs CLE (8th)

GSW @ HOU (O/U: 204.0, Spread: -3.5)

• Pace: GSW (17th) vs HOU (18th)
• Off Eff: GSW (15th) vs HOU (20th)
• Def Eff: GSW (7th) vs HOU (5th)

Legend:

🏃 = Significant pace mismatch

🔥 = Strong offense vs weak defense

🎯 = Poor defensive team

⚠️ = Blowout risk

Bold = Favored team

PG - Brandin Podziemski ($5,500)

Brandin Podziemski ($5,500) stands out as one of the strongest value plays on tonight’s slate. Projected for 34 minutes against Houston, he offers a solid 5.39x value with a projection of 29.63 DK points and a respectable 0.87 FPPM rate. The Rockets rank in the bottom third of the league defensively against guards, which bodes well for Podziemski’s ability to contribute across multiple categories. His recent performances show upside, with games of 36.5 and 39.8 DK points in two of his last four contests, and his consistent defensive activity (multiple steals in four straight appearances) adds another layer to his fantasy floor.

At 30.4% projected ownership, Podziemski is chalky but justifiably so given his price and role in this matchup. He’s appearing in over 32% of optimal lineups, which signals that he’s not just popular—he’s also likely to deliver at this salary point. While he won’t carry your lineup with raw scoring like Steph Curry or Jimmy Butler, his ability to contribute rebounds, assists, and defensive stats makes him an appealing mid-range play in all formats. If you’re comfortable eating the chalk here, Podziemski is a strong building block for both cash games and tournaments tonight.

More PG Plays:

• Donovan Mitchell ($8,300)
• Stephen Curry ($8,900)

SG - Jalen Green ($6,500)

Jalen Green is one of the most polarizing plays on tonight’s slate. At $6,500, he projects as a solid value with 5.1x potential and appears in 19.1% of optimal lineups, but his recent performances raise questions. In his last four games, he’s failed to crack 20 DK points three times, struggling mightily with efficiency (shooting just 8-for-39 over his last three). However, Green did show upside against this same Golden State team earlier this month, putting up 38.3 DK points in a game where he logged 34 minutes and shot 9-for-19 from the field. The matchup against the Warriors isn’t ideal—they’re middle-of-the-pack defensively—but Houston will need Green’s scoring punch to stay competitive in what could be a fast-paced game environment.

The biggest concern here is ownership. At a projected 50.3%, Green is one of the most popular plays on the slate, which makes him risky if you’re targeting leverage in tournaments. While his price and minutes are appealing, his recent inconsistency makes him less of a lock than the field seems to think. If you believe in regression to the mean or trust his prior performance against Golden State, he’s worth consideration as chalk you can eat. But given how thin his margin for error has been lately, fading him for lower-owned pivots at similar price points—like someone with more consistent form—could pay off if he struggles again tonight.

More SG Plays:

• Jaylen Brown ($7,500)
• Donovan Mitchell ($8,300)

SF - Jimmy Butler ($8,500)

Jimmy Butler ($8,500) stands out as one of the top plays on this slate, and for good reason. His recent form has been stellar, averaging 51.2 DK points over his last five games while logging heavy minutes in high-leverage situations. Tonight’s matchup against Houston is enticing as well—the Rockets have struggled defensively all season and rank near the bottom of the league in defensive efficiency against wings. With a projected 40 minutes on the court and a 1.16 FPPM rate, Butler is set up to deliver significant value at 5.44x his salary. Add in his ability to contribute across multiple categories (points, assists, steals), and he’s a high-floor option with legitimate upside.

The ownership is moderate at 32.5%, but it feels warranted given Butler’s consistency and ceiling potential in this spot. His 34.98% optimal lineup rate highlights just how strong of a play he is relative to his salary, and with a boom percentage of 28.4%, he has clear tournament-winning potential even at elevated ownership levels. If you’re building lineups tonight, Butler fits seamlessly into both cash games and GPPs, especially considering the favorable game environment against Houston’s weak defense. While chalky, this is one situation where fading him could be risky given his floor/ceiling combination and matchup context.

More SF Plays:

• Andrew Wiggins ($7,100)
• Jaylen Brown ($7,500)

PF - Paolo Banchero ($9,000)

Paolo Banchero comes in at $9,000 tonight in a tough matchup against the Celtics, but there’s still plenty to like about his DFS profile. He’s projected for 46.6 DK points and boasts a strong 5.17x value with a 33% optimal lineup rate, which is hard to ignore even at this salary. Boston’s defense is elite, but Banchero has proven he can produce in challenging spots, as evidenced by his 61.3 DK points in Game 1 of this series. With an expected workload of 40+ minutes and a solid 1.16 FPPM rate, he should have ample opportunity to fill up the stat sheet again, especially given Orlando’s reliance on him for both scoring and playmaking.

The high ownership (40.5%) is worth noting, as it makes him chalky in tournaments, but the numbers suggest it’s justified. His Boom% (21.6%) and tournament rank (4th) indicate he has legitimate upside even at elevated ownership levels. While Boston’s defense isn’t ideal for targeting big men, Banchero’s ability to contribute across multiple categories mitigates some of that risk. If you’re comfortable eating chalk in GPPs or looking for a high-floor option in cash games, Banchero fits the bill tonight despite the matchup concerns.

More PF Plays:

• Bam Adebayo ($8,400)
• Evan Mobley ($7,900)

C - Al Horford ($4,300)

Al Horford at $4,300 is shaping up as one of the strongest value plays on the slate, and for good reason. He’s projected for 25.9 DK points in a favorable matchup against Orlando, offering a solid 6.01x return on his salary. With Robert Williams no longer in Boston and Kristaps Porzingis more focused offensively, Horford has been quietly productive in his role, particularly when he sees extended minutes. He’s projected for 33 minutes tonight, which gives him ample time to rack up peripheral stats like rebounds and assists while chipping in with some scoring. Orlando is a middle-of-the-pack defensive team against bigs, so while this isn’t a smash spot, it’s enough to justify his price tag given his consistent floor.

At 31.7% ownership, Horford will be one of the more popular plays on the slate, but it’s chalk worth eating in most formats. His high optimal lineup percentage (34.1%) suggests he fits well into builds without sacrificing upside elsewhere. While he had a muted performance in Game 1 against Orlando (17.8 DK points), that game was a blowout where Boston didn’t need much from him late. In closer games or ones where Boston leans on their veterans more heavily, Horford has shown he can deliver ceiling performances like his 41.5 DK points against Memphis just two weeks ago. At this price point, he provides stability with the potential for upside if things break right—just don’t expect him to single-handedly win you a tournament tonight.

More C Plays:

• Bam Adebayo ($8,400)
• Evan Mobley ($7,900)

Good luck! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Player Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!